NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Nicholas (19S)

[HURAKAN]

Not much movement expected.

[Crostorm]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 3:40 am WDT on Tuesday, 12 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Pardoo to Kalumburu.

At 3:00 am WDT a tropical low was estimated to be
190 kilometres north of Broome and
285 kilometres west southwest of Kuri Bay and
was near stationary.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Gales are not expected
in coastal areas on Tuesday, however, gales could develop in coastal areas
between Pardoo and Kalumburu on Wednesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 16.3 degrees South 122.0 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
Recent movement.......... near stationary
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour near thunderstorms
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Pardoo and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 am WDT Tuesday 12 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Crostorm]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 9:45 am WDT on Tuesday, 12 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Pardoo to Kalumburu.

At 9:00 am WDT a tropical low was estimated to be
295 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
560 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west northwest at 5 kilometres per hour.

The low is showing signs of intensification and may develop into a tropical
cyclone on Wednesday. Gales are not expected in coastal areas on Tuesday or
Wednesday, however, gales could develop in coastal areas between Pardoo and
Kalumburu on Thursday.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 120.8 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 5 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour near thunderstorms
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Pardoo and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 pm WDT Tuesday 12 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Crostorm]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 3:45 pm WDT on Tuesday, 12 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Pardoo to Kalumburu.

At 3:00 pm WDT a tropical low was estimated to be
320 kilometres northwest of Broome and
550 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west northwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

The low is showing signs of intensification and may develop into a tropical
cyclone on Wednesday. Gales are not expected in coastal areas on Tuesday or
Wednesday, however, gales could develop in coastal areas between Pardoo and
Kalumburu on Thursday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 120.4 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 6 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour near thunderstorms
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Pardoo and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Tuesday 12 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Coredesat]

This thread should have been renamed to 98S when I mentioned it before; could a mod do it now?



(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9S
120.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 120.1E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN
AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH WEAK CONV-
ECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE
CENTER. ANALYSIS OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS INFLUENCED BY MODERATE SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOP-
MENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Tuesday the 12th of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

A Cyclone Advice is current for a tropical low near 15.7S 120.8E at 9am WDT
Tuesday, please refer to latest advice.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Wednesday : High
Thursday : High
Friday : High

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[Crostorm]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 121100
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 100 NM RADIUS OF 15.2S 120.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 120.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 131100Z.
//

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3S
120.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 120.4E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER
OF AN ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT
IN A 120929Z SSMI IMAGE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES ON THE EQUA-
TORWARD SIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO AID VORTEX SPIN-UP.
ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN BOTH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
SEE REF C (WTXS21 PGTW 121100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BASED ON THE
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

[Chacor]

AXAU02 APRF 121317
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1317 UTC 12/02/2008
Name: Tropical Low
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.2S
Longitude: 120.1E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [307 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 13/0000: 14.9S 119.8E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 988
+24: 13/1200: 14.8S 119.9E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 982
+36: 14/0000: 14.9S 120.2E: 110 [205]: 045 [085]: 978
+48: 14/1200: 15.2S 120.5E: 130 [240]: 055 [100]: 966
+60: 15/0000: 15.4S 120.8E: 150 [280]: 065 [120]: 960
+72: 15/1200: 15.8S 120.4E: 170 [315]: 080 [150]: 944
REMARKS:
The system has developed some curvature in the convective bands over the last 24
hours with a low level centre now located near an area of deep, persistent
convection.
The system has moved away from the coast out over very warm water and is under
an area of low to moderate shear.
Conditions are favourable for ongoing development and the system is likely to
develop into a cyclone in the next 18 to 36 hours.
The models indicate the system is likely to be in a weak steering pattern for
the next 1 to 2 days before beginning a more southerly track in the longer term.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Chacor]

WTAU06 APRF 121305
IDW23200
40:3:1:24:15S120E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1303UTC 12 FEBRUARY 2008

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 50 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal two south [15.2S]
longitude one hundred and twenty decimal one east [120.1E]
Recent movement : northwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 990 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours.



AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Maximum winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots by 1200 UTC 13
February.

From 1200UTC 13 February winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre
with rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 13 February: Within 70 nautical miles of 14.9 south 119.8 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 13 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 14.8 south 119.9 east
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 12 February 2008.


WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

Seems to be consolidating.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 9:55 pm WDT on Tuesday, 12 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Pardoo to Kalumburu.

At 9:00 pm WDT a tropical low was estimated to be
385 kilometres northwest of Broome and
590 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving northwest at 8 kilometres per hour.

The low is showing signs of intensification and may develop into a tropical
cyclone later on Wednesday or early Thursday. Gales are not expected in coastal
areas overnight or Wednesday, however, gales could develop in coastal areas
between Pardoo and Kalumburu on Thursday.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 15.2 degrees South 120.1 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 8 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour near thunderstorms
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Pardoo and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am WDT Wednesday 13 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1332 UTC 12/02/2008
Name: Tropical Low
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.2S
Longitude: 120.1E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm (95 km)
Movement Towards: northwest (307 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 13/0000: 14.9S 119.8E: 070 (130): 030 (055): 988
+24: 13/1200: 14.8S 119.9E: 090 (165): 040 (075): 982
+36: 14/0000: 14.9S 120.2E: 110 (205): 045 (085): 978
+48: 14/1200: 15.2S 120.5E: 130 (240): 055 (100): 966
REMARKS:
The system has developed some curvature in the convective bands over the last 24 hours with a low level centre now located near an area of deep, persistent convection.
The system has moved away from the coast out over very warm water and is under an area of low to moderate shear.
Conditions are favourable for ongoing development and the system is likely to develop into a cyclone in the next 18 to 36 hours.
The models indicate the system is likely to be in a weak steering pattern for the next 1 to 2 days before beginning a more southerly track in the longer term.
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Looks great.

12/0830 UTC 16.1S 120.4E T2.0/2.0 98S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

12/1430 UTC 15.2S 120.2E T2.5/2.5 98S -- South Indian Ocean

[KWT]

This system does look very good now, some very deep convection and some clear curvature to the convection as well and there doesn't appear to be much that is in the way of this system get stronger. T-numbers also rising quite nicely is clear evidence of this system becoming better organised.

[Pedro Fernández]

I was wondering if this system 98S is the reintensification of tropical storm 17S... Can you tell me if it is?