SE Indian Ocean: Invest 93S

[HURAKAN]

Looks better.



Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Saturday the 23rd of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

At midday Saturday, a low was located off the east Pilbara coast, near 19S
117.5E moving steadily westwards. Model guidance does not indicate significant
intensification. However, there is a period late on Sunday and Monday when the
risk of it developing into a cyclone increases before it moves west of longitude
110E on Monday.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Sunday : Moderate
Monday : Moderate
Tuesday : Low

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[HURAKAN]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat1.html





AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.8S 112.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT
METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE UNDER GOOD
DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS DISPLACING THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

25/0830 UTC 19.4S 108.0E T2.0/2.0 93S -- South Indian Ocean

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3S
112.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 110.1E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY INDICATES A NEW LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
CONSOLIDATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PREVIOUS, ELONGATED LLCC.
THE CONSOLIDATION IS CONFIRMED BY A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 242308Z WHICH
ALSO SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE
REMAINS IN A REGION OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARD A REGION OF LESS
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,
SHORTENING THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Monday the 25th of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

At midday a low was near 18.1S 109.5E, and was moving steadily westwards away
from the region and not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. There are
no other tropical lows evident.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Tuesday : Low
Wednesday : Low
Thursday : Low

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **