NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Ophelia

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 10:50 am CST [10:20 am WDT] Friday 29 February 2008

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Cape Leveque
to Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia.

At 9:30 am CST [9:00 am WDT] a Tropical Low was estimated to be 105 kilometres
east southeast of Kalumburu and 180 kilometres northwest of Kununurra and moving
west northwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to move to the west across the north Kimberley
region today. The low is not expected to develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE in the
Joseph Bonaparte Gulf, but may develop once it moves off the west Kimberley
coast on Saturday night or Sunday. GALES are not expected in coastal areas
within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [9:00 am WDT]:
.Centre located near...... 14.7 degrees South 127.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 4:30 pm WDT Friday 29 February.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Cyclenall]

How does it survive that trek all on land?

[Chacor]

It's a monsoonal depression.

[G.B.]

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:22pm WDT on Friday the 29th of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

There are no significant tropical lows currently in the region. However, a
tropical low [1002 hPa] was located 150 km northwest of Wyndham, near 14.6S
127.0E at midday WDT. A Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system,
please refer to the latest advice for details. This low is expected to continue
moving in a general westerly track into the region on Saturday and may then
intensify once it moves off the west Kimberley coast.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Saturday : Moderate
Sunday : High
Monday : High

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[G.B.]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 4:51 pm CST [4:21 pm WDT] Friday 29 February 2008

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to
Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia.

At 3:30 pm CST [3:00 pm WDT] a Tropical Low was estimated to be 36 kilometres
south southwest of Kalumburu and 235 kilometres east northeast of Kuri Bay and
moving west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving towards the west, and be located
off the west Kimberley coast early on Saturday morning. The low may develop into
a TROPICAL CYCLONE later on Saturday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal
areas between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque later on Saturday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST [3:00 pm WDT]:
.Centre located near...... 14.6 degrees South 126.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 7:30 pm WDT Friday 29 February.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[G.B.]

Doesn't look too bad

[G.B.]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: Transmitters serving the area xxxxxx to xxxxxx are requested to use the
cyclone emergency warning signal with this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:40 pm CST [8:10 pm WDT] Friday 29 February 2008

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mitchell
Plateau.

At 6:30 pm CST [6:00 pm WDT] a Tropical Low was estimated to be 85 kilometres
southwest of Kalumburu and 185 kilometres east northeast of Kuri Bay and moving
west at 15 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving towards the west, and be located
off the west Kimberley coast early on Saturday morning. The low may develop into
a TROPICAL CYCLONE later on Saturday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal
areas between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque later on Saturday.

Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 pm CST [6:00 pm WDT]:
.Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 126.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 10:30 pm WDT Friday 29 February.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

MEDIA: the following message is only for broadcast in Western Australia

FESA advise that there are no community alerts. People between Cape Leveque and
the Mitchell Plateau should listen for the next advise at 10:30pm Western
Daylight Saving Time.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:15S126E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0743 UTC 29 FEBRUARY 2008

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was centred over land within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal six south [14.6S]
longitude one hundred and twenty six decimal five east [126.5E]
Recent movement : west northwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24
hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 0600 UTC 01
March.

From 0600 UTC 1 March winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre
with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 29 February: Within 35 nautical miles of 15.0 south 125.1 east near
the coast
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots over water.
At 0600 UTC 01 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 15.7 south 123.5 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 212.


Next warning will be issued by 1330 UTC 29 February 2008.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[G.B.]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: The standard emergency warning signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:49 pm CST [8:19 pm WDT] Friday 29 February 2008

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mitchell
Plateau.

At 6:30 pm CST [6:00 pm WDT] a Tropical Low was estimated to be 85 kilometres
southwest of Kalumburu and 185 kilometres east northeast of Kuri Bay and moving
west at 15 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving towards the west, and be located
off the west Kimberley coast early on Saturday morning. The low may develop into
a TROPICAL CYCLONE later on Saturday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal
areas between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque later on Saturday.

Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 pm CST [6:00 pm WDT]:
.Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 126.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 10:30 pm WDT Friday 29 February.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre



MEDIA: the following message is only for broadcast in Western Australia

FESA advise that there are no community alerts. People between Cape Leveque and
the Mitchell Plateau should listen for the next advise at 10:30pm Western
Daylight Saving Time.

[G.B.]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [10:30 pm WDT] Friday 29 February 2008

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mitchell
Plateau.

At 9:00 pm WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be 90 kilometres south southwest
of Kalumburu and 205 kilometres east northeast of Kuri Bay and moving west
southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving towards the west, and be located
off the west Kimberley coast early on Saturday morning. The low may develop into
a TROPICAL CYCLONE later on Saturday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal
areas between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque later on Saturday.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.1 degrees South 126.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 1:30 am WDT Saturday 01 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre



MEDIA: the following message is only for broadcast in Western Australia

FESA advises there are no community alerts. People between Cape Leveque and the
Mitchell Plateau should listen for the next advice at 1.30am WDT.

[Squarethecircle]

Looks really excellent on convective, I wouldn't be surprised if it was already a moderate tropical storm (can't put up imagery; using IE).

[wyq614]

could reach Cat.3
(see technical summary)

[KWT]

This one certainly does look primed to develop into a decent tropical cyclone once it hits those warm waters over the next 24hrs.

[Chacor]

630
AXAU01 ADRM 291305
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
ISSUED BY DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1305 UTC 29/02/2008
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
DATA AT: 1200 UTC
LATITUDE: 15.1S
LONGITUDE: 126.4E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 25 NM [46 KM]
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST SOUTHWEST [249 DEG]
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 6 KNOTS [11 KM/H]
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 20 KNOTS [35 KM/H]
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS [85 KM/H]
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:

DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
[UTC] : DEGREES : NM [KM]: KNOTS[KM/H]: HPA
+12: 01/0000: 15.9S 124.6E: 045 [085]: 030 [050]: 994
+24: 01/1200: 16.3S 123.4E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 988
+36: 02/0000: 16.4S 121.8E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 982
+48: 02/1200: 16.5S 120.4E: 065 [120]: 050 [095]: 976
+60: 03/0000: 16.7S 118.6E: 075 [140]: 060 [105]: 970
+72: 03/1200: 16.9S 116.8E: 080 [150]: 070 [130]: 960
REMARKS:
POSITION OVER LAND BASED ON WEAK LLCC EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY. WEAK BAND OF
DEEP CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTORS. EASTERLY SHEAR HAS DECREASED AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVED PAST TO THE SOUTH, WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE. DT=2.0 BASED
ON LOW OVER LAND, MET=2.0 AND FT BASED ON DT, MET AND PAT=2.0. CONSISTENT MODEL
FORECASTS PREDICT WSW MOVEMENT OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY. TC DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
LATER ON SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY WEST OF THE KIMBERLEY COAST. STANDARD
DEVELOPMENT RATE EXPECTED UNDER INFLUENCE OF DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 29/1930 UTC BY DARWIN TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST [1:30 am WDT] Saturday 1 March 2008

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mitchell
Plateau.

At 12:00 am WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be 120 kilometres south
southwest of Kalumburu and 180 kilometres east of Kuri Bay and moving southwest
at 10 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving towards the west, and be located
off the west Kimberley coast later today. The low may develop into a TROPICAL
CYCLONE late today or Sunday morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal
areas between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque late today or Sunday morning.

Details of Tropical Low at 12:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.3 degrees South 126.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 4:30 am WDT Saturday 01 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


MEDIA: the following message is only for broadcast in Western Australia

FESA advises there are no community alerts. People between Cape Leveque and the
Mitchell Plateau should listen for the next advice at 4.30am.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S
128.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. LOCAL AREA RADAR AND SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE EVIDENCE FOR A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER LAND, JUST SOUTH OF THE JOSEPH BONAP-
ARTE GULF. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF MODERATE VER-
TICAL WIND SHEAR WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST
OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, AND COULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPON ENCOUNTERING THE MORE FAVORABLE OVER-WATER CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BECAUSE THE DISTUR-
BANCE WILL REMAIN OVER LAND FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:15S126E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1930 UTC 29 FEBRUARY 2008

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low was centred over land within 25 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal three south [15.3S]
longitude one hundred and twenty five decimal eight east [125.8E]
Recent movement : southwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24
hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 1800 UTC 01
March with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 01 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.8 south 124.2 east near the
coast
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 01 March: Within 85 nautical miles of 16.0 south 122.6 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 212.


Next warning will be issued by 0130 UTC 01 March 2008.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 291930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 126.2E TO 16.1S 119.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 291830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 125.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 128.5E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. LOCAL AREA RADAR AND SURFACE WIND OBSERVAT-
IONS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE EVIDENCE FOR A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER LAND. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY IN A
REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVE-
CTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF RADIAL OUTFLOW FORMING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND
COULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPON ENCOUNTERING THE
MORE FAVORABLE OVER-WATER CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO WATER AND
AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELO-
PMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011930Z.
//