NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)

[zaqxsw75050]

latest ecmwf is showing landfall near hong kong... if that verify it would be pretty unusual.

by the way, TCFA

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the TCFA:

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 131930
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 124.0E TO 11.3N 117.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 122.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 141930Z.
//

[HURAKAN]

13/1257 UTC 8.4N 123.9E OVERLAND 99W -- West Pacific Ocean

[Ed Mahmoud]

When is the normal date of the first Western North Pac TC?

[P.K.]

The first named storm on average forms by about the end of March.

WWJP25 RJTD 131800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 990 HPA
AT 51N 169E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 992 HPA
AT 54N 135E SIBERIA MOVING EAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 54N 135E TO 53N 140E 52N 143E.
COLD FRONT FROM 54N 135E TO 51N 130E 49N 120E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1012 HPA
AT 35N 142E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SOUTHERN PART OF SEA OF OKHOTSK
NORTHERN PART OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 141E 47N 152E
41N 150E 40N 142E 42N 141E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 166E 43N 170E
50N 180E 36N 180E 28N 170E 30N 166E 30N 166E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 29N 132E EAST 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 08N 123E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 32N 120E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 40N 152E EAST 20 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N 121E TO 26N 128E 29N 132E 27N 137E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[RL3AO]

13/2030 UTC 9.3N 121.9E T2.0/2.0 99W

[Ed Mahmoud]

Judging from English language JMA page, they don't issue TC advisories until a system is TS strength. But they are calling it a TD.


So when does this page get locked and this system moved to active storms?

[cycloneye]

Judging from English language JMA page, they don't issue TC advisories until a system is TS strength. But they are calling it a TD.


So when does this page get locked and this system moved to active storms?

Ed,the thread is here at the active storms forum. This forum is for systems that are tagged as invests and it continues from there.

[RL3AO]

They issue an advisory when the depression gets to 30kt and it is in active storms.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Judging from English language JMA page, they don't issue TC advisories until a system is TS strength. But they are calling it a TD.


So when does this page get locked and this system moved to active storms?

Ed,the thread is here at the active storms forum. This forum is for systems that are tagged as invests and it continues from there.

Ah, my TC internet fu is rusty from the Northern Hemisphere off-season.

[cycloneye]

13/2030 UTC 9.3N 121.9E T2.0/2.0 99W -- West Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

WTPN21 PGTW 131930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 124.0E TO 11.3N 117.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 122.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
127.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 122.8E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALONG WITH DEVELOPING
CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS.
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT IMPEDED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
TERRAIN, BUT THE LLCC WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SULU SEA WITHIN THE
NEXT 06-12 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NORTHERN MINDANAO
INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS IN AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT SINCE AN ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 141930Z.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

I guess it won't be long before JMA start issuing warnings judging by the way 99W has got its act together. Nice to see a lot of interest in this on here - the northern hemisphere is about to re-awaken and it looks like Hong Kong will have to keep it's eye on 99W!

[RattleMan]

02W on NRL.

[RL3AO]

Advisory is out at 3z.

PAGASA has named it Tropical Depression Ambo.

[HurricaneBill]

WPAC's waking up.

[HURAKAN]

[RattleMan]

JTWC and JMA updates:

WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131921Z APR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 9.6N 121.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 121.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 9.9N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 10.3N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 11.1N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 12.1N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 13.7N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.0N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.6N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 120.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 131921Z APR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 131930.) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z,
142100Z AND 150300Z.
NNNN








845
WWJP25 RJTD 140000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 994 HPA
AT 56N 139E SIBERIA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 56N 139E TO 55N 142E 53N 145E.
COLD FRONT FROM 56N 139E TO 52N 134E 48N 125E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1010 HPA
AT 38N 143E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 38N 143E TO 37N 143E 35N 143E.
WARM FRONT FROM 35N 143E TO 35N 145E 34N 146E.
COLD FRONT FROM 35N 143E TO 33N 141E 31N 136E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 996 HPA
AT 53N 173E SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 08.9N 121.3E SULU SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 41N 142E 46N 151E
41N 150E 40N 142E 41N 142E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 28N 160E 50N 180E
34N 180E 26N 170E 28N 160E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 30N 135E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1018 HPA AT 40N 176E ENE 20 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 34N 123E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 41N 155E EAST 20 KT.
COLD FRONT FROM 30N 135E TO 27N 133E 25N 130E 23N 125E.
WARM FRONT FROM 30N 135E TO 29N 137E 28N 139E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

PAGASA (Philippines) has 02W named as "Ambo" and has the center near Dumaguete City -- which happens to be where my wife is from.

Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "AMBO"
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Monday, 14 April 2008 Tropical Depression "AMBO" has maintained its strength and is now in the vicinity of Dumaguete City.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) was estimated in the vicinity of Dumaguete City
Coordinates: 9.5°N 123.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center
Movement: West at 11 kph
Forecast Positions / Outlook:
Tuesday morning: 260 kms West Northwest of Dumaguete City
Wednesday morning: in the vicinity of Puerto Princesa City
Thursday morning: 280 kms West Northwest of Puerto Prinsesa City

Signal #1 Warning for...
Southern Cebu
Siquijor Island
Negros Oriental
Southern Negros Occidental
Southern Iloilo
Southern Antique
Guimaras
Cuyo Island

http://202.90.128.200/wb/tcupdate.shtml



The latest observation out of Dumaguete has 12mi visibility, winds 180° 5 mph, temperature 86°F, dewpoint 76°F, pressure 1007.1mb, showers in the vicinity, skies with 3/8 cumulus clouds at 1500ft, 3/8 altocumulus at 8000ft, and 6/8 cirrus at 22000ft

[Chacor]

45 km/h? 25 kts from PAGASA when both JTWC and JMA have it at 30 kt?