Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[Chacor]

You can never go by just one sat fix alone.

[Derek Ortt]

That looks more like a 1.0/1.0 or a 1.5/1.5 based upon the still images posted here

The center does not seem well-defined yet. Still monsoon trough like

[Chacor]

TPIO10 PGTW 270602

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95B (E OF INDIA)

B. 27/0530Z

C. 11.5N

D. 86.2E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS (27/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 2.0. DBO PT AND
MET DUE TO CONSTRAINTS.

UEHARA


WTIO21 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 11.7N 86.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270530Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 86.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N
87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 86.9E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST OF
MADRAS, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 270222Z
SSMIS IMAGE SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION INDICATE FALLING SEA
LEVEL PRESSURES NEAR THE SYSTEM, AND A 261202Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE DIS-
PLAYS A BAND OF 20-25 KT WINDS AT A RADIUS OF APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
FROM THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMA-
TED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280600Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

IMD on cue.

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 27-04-2008



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN ( THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VAILD FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 27 APRIL, 2008 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 27 APRIL 2008 (.)







A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 27 TH APRIL 2008 NEAR LAT. 12.0 DEG N AND LONG. 87.0 DEG E , ABOUT 750 KM EAST – SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI . THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE INITIALLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.



SEA CONDITION IS MODERATE TO ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.



IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM, BROKEN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT. 09.0 DEG N TO 15.0 DEG N AND LONG. 82.5 DEG E TO 90.0 DEG E , ANDAMAN ISLANDS AND ADJOLINING ANDAMAN SEA.

[Chacor]

BOB 01/2008/01 Dated: 27 April 2007







Sub: Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal.









A depression has formed over south Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, April 2008 near lat. 12.0 deg N and long. 87.0 deg E, and 750 km east- southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move initially in a northwesterly direction.



Under its influence, rain/thundershower is likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.



Sea condition moderate to rough around the system centre.

[badkhan]

Finally...

[HURAKAN]

01B.NONAME 35 knots

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270551Z APR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTIO31 PGTW 271500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 12.1N 85.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 85.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.6N 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.1N 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.5N 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.1N 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.5N 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 85.6E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 270551Z
APR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 270600 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.
//
BT
#0001

[Chacor]

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF
MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 270804Z
AMSRE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 35 KNOT CURRENT INTEN-
SITY IS BASED UPON RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY DEPICTING 35 KNOT WINDS
SURROUNDING THE LLCC AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTH-
WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD TRACKING ALONG THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SUR-
FACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 270551Z APR
08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 270600 ) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.

[HurricaneRobert]

I didn't see that recurve coming. This could be a nasty one.

This is the third cyclone to come out of that huge blob that sat over the Indian Ocean last week (Rosie and Durga are the other two).

[Derek Ortt]

And I have to say that thge IMD is living up to its name yet again as quite the Incompetent Meteorological Department

This is at least a 45KT storm based upon the sat imagery. Looks like a 3.0/3.0 or maybe a 3.5/3.5

[HURAKAN]

Agree with Derek.

[Cyclenall]

I agree with Derek also, I thought it's around 50 knots 1-min. It may not strengthen slowly at all, it could bomb. The track looks concerning a bit.



Is all that convection of the east of it part of the TC?

[Derek Ortt]

model NCEP has this thing striking India and not recurving

[Derek Ortt]

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 108fix.txt

JT at 3.0/3.0. Once the numbers reach 4.0/4.0 IMD MAY call this a deep depression

[senorpepr]

Well, the models are pretty much clueless.

We looking at the old 06Z suite, nearly all the models had 01B moving NE toward Myanmar. The JAVN had 01B quasi-stationary for the first few days, but it even has 01B eventually marching NE.

The 12Z suite wasn't as straightforward. CLIP was the westernmost model (with the exception of XTRP). By T+72, it has 01B making landfall near Vijayawada, India. CLIM, GFNI has a mostly N direction. The rest of the suite persists in a NE recurve, but slow forward progression. Matter of fact, CLIP is the only model that has landfall occurring during the forecast period.

[senorpepr]

I guess I should make a comment on the intensity forecasts. It's really hard to make a judgment, of course, with this being relatively weak.

Half of the models keep 01B near minimum TS strength... the other half has it between category one/two on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. (Very severe cyclonic storm per IMD procedure*) The GFNI is the outlier with 130KT near T+108-120.



*Would be called very severe cyclonic storm if IMD actually assessed the storm strength. In reality, they would still call it a deep depression. Why... nobody really knows.

[senorpepr]

(From 12Z)

BOB 01/2008/03 Dated: 27th April, 2008






Sub: Deep Depression over southeast and adjoining Southwest Bay of

Bengal.



The depression over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, the 27th April 2008 over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near lat. 12.0 deg N and long. 86.5 deg E, about 700 km east-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move initially in a northwesterly direction.



Under its influence, rain/thundershower is likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.



Sea condition is very rough around the system centre

[HURAKAN]

40kts-995mb

Impressive storm

[cycloneye]

27/1900 UTC 12.8N 85.7E T3.0/3.0 01B -- Bay of Bengal