Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[RL3AO]

Shaping up like TS Bret in 2005 maybe?

[wxman57]

Exactly...

Additionally, it could gain TD classification briefly before moving inland over the Yucatan.

Well, I think the chances of it becoming a TD before it moves inland tomorrow are extremely remote. Just no organized convection and not much time left over water.

[Ad Novoxium]

My opinion calls for a more Amelia 78-like storm than a Bret storm.

Note: Not an official forecast, nor is this sponsored by an official organization. Do not take seriously.

[Aric Dunn]

Exactly...

Additionally, it could gain TD classification briefly before moving inland over the Yucatan.

Well, I think the chances of it becoming a TD before it moves inland tomorrow are extremely remote. Just no organized convection and not much time left over water.

sometimes things just dont take as long as one might think..
also its moving very fast in any direction ...

[KWT]

I tend to agree with wxman57 I don't think this has enough time but I wouldn't rule out a Bret 05 type development with this system if it can gain enough latitude and make it into the BoC, which is looking totally possible.

[Aric Dunn]

that last post was supposed to not moving very fast

[RL3AO]

Convection is increasing pretty quick right now. So it might be an interesting 6-12 hours.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

[cycloneye]

So far no tropical model plots.Only the UKMET has something.

[MiamiensisWx]

Convection is increasing pretty quick right now. So it might be an interesting 6-12 hours.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

1. Low level convergence is scanty compared to previous days
2. This would not support a relocation of the current developing weak LLC
3. Data and that visible loop (along with the low level winds) indicates it's steadily moving west toward land

"Landfall" is imminent. However, heavy precipitation will certainly present a threat.

[StormspinnerD2]

Indeed, while convection is increasing, whatever low-level circulation is there remains quite weak. The system should be over land within 12 hours or so.

[djones65]

I just don't see the same things Miami is seeing...
If you look at the visible loops of the NW Caribbean you will see that this low level circulation is large and has become better organized throughout the day. In addition, the center of circulation seems to have been reforming gradually to the northeast as the day has progressed. I do not see a steady westward progression at this time. That very well may end up being the case as it feels the ridge to its north, but at this time it appears nearly stationary near 17.8N and 87.0W ( a little north and east of the 1800UTC position). In addition, low level convergence looks excellent to me, thus the resurgence of deep convection just north of the low level center. I personally do not expect this to be designated as a depression prior to moving over the Yucatan on Saturday, but I wouldn't be surprised either. I see this as an analog to the precursor to Opal of 1995 (Obviously it won't end up being a major cane due to the sst and such, but Opal had a broad envelope of low pressure with a large and well defined low level circulation as this one has, and even though the center of circulation was over Belize and the northeastern Yucatan, it strengthened to storm status)...
I just wanted to dispute that I do not see the things Miami is seeing... Landfall is not imminent at least not until Saturday afternoon, and I believe the low level convergence is strong and increasing.

[MiamiensisWx]

I just don't see the same things Miami is seeing...
If you look at the visible loops of the NW Caribbean you will see that this low level circulation is large and has become better organized throughout the day. In addition, the center of circulation seems to have been reforming gradually to the northeast as the day has progressed. I do not see a steady westward progression at this time. That very well may end up being the case as it feels the ridge to its north, but at this time it appears nearly stationary near 17.8N and 87.0W ( a little north and east of the 1800UTC position). In addition, low level convergence looks excellent to me, thus the resurgence of deep convection just north of the low level center. I personally do not expect this to be designated as a depression prior to moving over the Yucatan on Saturday, but I wouldn't be surprised either. I see this as an analog to the precursor to Opal of 1995 (Obviously it won't end up being a major cane due to the sst and such, but Opal had a broad envelope of low pressure with a large and well defined low level circulation as this one has, and even though the center of circulation was over Belize and the northeastern Yucatan, it strengthened to storm status)...
I just wanted to dispute that I do not see the things Miami is seeing... Landfall is not imminent at least not until Saturday afternoon, and I believe the low level convergence is strong and increasing.

1. SSTs are more than sufficient for a hurricane. The issue is shear, the upper air and low level environment, and proximity to land
2. As already indicated by wxman57, the possible broad and ill defined LLC is east of Belize. Visible imagery indicates steady movement to the west
3. Relocation/reformation won't occur
4. There is no evidence of any "new" LLC

[StormspinnerD2]

I just don't see the same things Miami is seeing...
If you look at the visible loops of the NW Caribbean you will see that this low level circulation is large and has become better organized throughout the day. In addition, the center of circulation seems to have been reforming gradually to the northeast as the day has progressed. I do not see a steady westward progression at this time. That very well may end up being the case as it feels the ridge to its north, but at this time it appears nearly stationary near 17.8N and 87.0W ( a little north and east of the 1800UTC position). In addition, low level convergence looks excellent to me, thus the resurgence of deep convection just north of the low level center. I personally do not expect this to be designated as a depression prior to moving over the Yucatan on Saturday, but I wouldn't be surprised either. I see this as an analog to the precursor to Opal of 1995 (Obviously it won't end up being a major cane due to the sst and such, but Opal had a broad envelope of low pressure with a large and well defined low level circulation as this one has, and even though the center of circulation was over Belize and the northeastern Yucatan, it strengthened to storm status)...
I just wanted to dispute that I do not see the things Miami is seeing... Landfall is not imminent at least not until Saturday afternoon, and I believe the low level convergence is strong and increasing.

Do you have any evidence of this LLCC reformation you mentioned? I have been watching loops all day and have seen no such thing so far.

[NDG]

Is going to be a close call if it stays overnight over water and eventually moving inland during the day, you guys know that convection is usually at the highest in the morning hours with tropical systems.

[KWT]

Yeah I think low level convergance is still better then what Alma had and that developed pretty rapidly, granted its not as good as it was in this region a few days ago. I too don't think this will be a depression before 'landfall' of this invest but the fact that its developing a circulation may well give it a little headstart once it emerges towards the BoC. I want to see where the models first to have a better fell on whats going to happen because the exact track will IMO be key.

Also props to the GFS it did forecast a weak low to form in this exact spot.

[MiamiensisWx]

The operational GFS, ensembles, and Euro have had the best handle with the pattern... they indicate a westward track across the southern Bay of Campeche into Mexico. All other models should be ignored in this case.

[Aric Dunn]

I just don't see the same things Miami is seeing...
If you look at the visible loops of the NW Caribbean you will see that this low level circulation is large and has become better organized throughout the day. In addition, the center of circulation seems to have been reforming gradually to the northeast as the day has progressed. I do not see a steady westward progression at this time. That very well may end up being the case as it feels the ridge to its north, but at this time it appears nearly stationary near 17.8N and 87.0W ( a little north and east of the 1800UTC position). In addition, low level convergence looks excellent to me, thus the resurgence of deep convection just north of the low level center. I personally do not expect this to be designated as a depression prior to moving over the Yucatan on Saturday, but I wouldn't be surprised either. I see this as an analog to the precursor to Opal of 1995 (Obviously it won't end up being a major cane due to the sst and such, but Opal had a broad envelope of low pressure with a large and well defined low level circulation as this one has, and even though the center of circulation was over Belize and the northeastern Yucatan, it strengthened to storm status)...
I just wanted to dispute that I do not see the things Miami is seeing... Landfall is not imminent at least not until Saturday afternoon, and I believe the low level convergence is strong and increasing.

1. SSTs are more than sufficient for a hurricane. The issue is shear, the upper air and low level environment, and proximity to land
2. As already indicated by wxman57, the possible broad and ill defined LLC is east of Belize. Visible imagery indicates steady movement to the west
3. Relocation/reformation won't occur
4. There is no evidence of any "new" LLC

visible imagery does not show steady westward motion! we have a broad llc and i have watch it throughout the day it has not moved from this morning except north away from the 8am position..

it is still east of belize and crawling !!

[RL3AO]

Considering some of the stuff the NHC got from people thinking they named too many storms, a 6 hour TS would not be the best way to start the season for them.

Personally, I think it will get close to depression status before going over land.

[MiamiensisWx]

visible imagery does not show steady westward motion! we have a broad llc and i have watch it throughout the day it has not moved from this morning except north away from the 8am position..

You can take it up with the professional meteorologist known as wxman57. I disagree with you based on my aforementioned reasoning, and it is also notable that a meteorologist concurs with me (or I agree with him).

It is east of Belize and it is moving steadily west per close investigation.

[KWT]

The operational GFS, ensembles, and Euro have had the best handle with the pattern... they indicate a westward track across the southern Bay of Campeche into Mexico. All other models should be ignored in this case.

Agreed, esp the GFS which has relaly done well over the past 12hrs with this set-up. As you say it should move westwards once in the Boc, maybe even slightly south of west BUT I've seen systems down there form amazingly quickly, all they need is 18-24hrs to get upto tropical storm strength as Bret and others proved in the 05 season.