EPAC: Invest 91E - Southern México

[KWT]

Yep I agree but just like Alma its going to have to develop quickly if its going to become anything more then a Td/weak TS, Alma did ot but who knows about 91E. I do agree it does look like an interesting system and I can see something developing from this system, possibly in the next 24hrs IMO.

[tolakram]

Looking at the visible it appears that this disturbance is developing quickly, already a noticeable change and spin since dawn. Arthur (remains) is spinning north of it, making this situation look very familiar. Deja vu all over again.

[KWT]

Yep tolakram, whatever remains of Arthur is probably still very broad and now weaak and so if 91E does develop then it will likely just dissipate totally. I also agree that it does seem to be getting better and better organised at the moment and thus needs to be watched. The extra heavy rainfalls could provide real flooding risk to the region given what Arthur's left-overs have already given to the region.

[Ed Mahmoud]

ABPZ20 KNHC 021723
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF
MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AS
THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

[KWT]

Yep thats interesting thanks for putting that in here Ed, it does seem to be organising fairly quickly though it probably only has 2 days or so left over water. Also note the slow drift northward being mentioned...

[HURAKAN]

Already moving northward. Time is not on this disturbance side.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Staring intently with my untrained eyes, I see a spin offshore West of the Guatemala/Mexico border in the Pacific, and another overland in the SW Yucatan Peninsula, Southeast of the Bay of Campeche. I'm guessing the one inland is the remnant of Arthur, but I wouldn't bet serious money on it. The offshore spin is awfully close to land, and with another apparent low level (not asserting whether is a surface center) not too far away, this shouldn't be in a big hurry to organize.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't see a models thread. BTW, it appears the Hurricane Alley admins don't know that CDT is 5 hours behind GMT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

HPC accepts the inland into Mexico solution suggested by above models (from extended forecast discussion)

...RAINFALL...
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITHIN THIS
PREFERRED PATTERN. A CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH GREATER/MORE TYPICAL
COVERAGE FOR JUNE IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SUNSHINE STATE BY FRIDAY JUNE 6 SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO RELIEVE DRY SEASON CONDITIONS. THE
REMAINS OF ALMA/ARTHUR/NEW TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE
MEXICAN ISTHMUS SHOULD MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST...MOVING
FARTHER INTO MAINLAND MEXICO AND DISSIPATING BY EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

[KWT]

I'm not sure thats going to be the case Ed given its currently tracking NNE from the looks of things, its follwing closer to the BAMS then the others which have it already heading NW...plus the ridge is going to start breakibng down very soon by that trough diving down and the statistical models aren't going to be much use in that sort of situtation.

I agree though it is a little messy in that region at the present moment!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't see a models thread. BTW, it appears the Hurricane Alley admins don't know that CDT is 5 hours behind GMT.

I wonder if this will help draw moisture northward into Texas, bringing the area much needed rainfall?

[gatorcane]

there is an "eye-like" feature seen in this visible loop. It's not an eye but it looks like one. Weird:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Looks interesting.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wonder if this will help draw moisture northward into Texas, bringing the area much needed rainfall?

I hope so.

12Z GFS shows no meaningful rain until June 11th.

[KWT]

Yeah that is interesting, I suspect what you are seeing is a fairly healthy looking low level circulation with an exposed northern side whilst convection is on the southern side, it does look pretty vigorous though I have to admit!

[Ed Mahmoud]

In my unofficial opinion, it is probably already technically a tropical depression. Tapachula, Chiapis, MX, the nearest town I can think to look at, has heavy rain, ESE winds at 16 mph and a 1010 mb pressure.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree Ed I mean you can clearly see the circulation turning away and its got some steady convection on that southern side as well now. So if it carries on looking like this I'd expect a fair chance of a tropical depression within ht next 12hrs or so, esp if convection builds further across the center.

[gatorcane]

In my unofficial opinion, it is probably already technically a tropical depression. Tapachula, Chiapis, MX, the nearest town I can think to look at, has heavy rain, ESE winds at 16 mph and a 1010 mb pressure.

Pressures are falling there some also:

Latest 3 PM 29.83 (1010)
2 PM 29.84 (1010)
1 PM 29.86 (1011)
Noon No Data
11 AM 29.86 (1011)

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

In my unofficial opinion, it is probably already technically a tropical depression. Tapachula, Chiapis, MX, the nearest town I can think to look at, has heavy rain, ESE winds at 16 mph and a 1010 mb pressure.

ESE winds? That should indeed make it a tropical depression...