Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

[Blown Away]

The models have this system making a hard right turn pretty quick for E Atlantic. The CMC has a more realistic path, I see 92L crossing 20N after reaching at least 50W.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The models have this system making a hard right turn pretty quick for E Atlantic. The CMC has a more realistic path, I see 92L crossing 20N after reaching at least 50W.

I agree. Unless this thing just completely dive bombs its pressures and shoots up in strength, I doubt it will take a hard right turn. The CMC scenario seems much more believable at this time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z UK Met

W-NW movement, and drops below tropical storm strength in 5 days...

[RaleighWx]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf.html

The NHC ATCF model plots are automated and should update with each cycle, I also have added intensity (Winds/pressure) graphs for each applicable model.

Also, you can find the GFDL and HWRF images here

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfdl.html

And, my general weather model/data page here http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html

[dixiebreeze]

2:05 NHC discussion:


Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W
S OF 19N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15 KT. A 1011 MB SFC LOW IS
SITUATED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N...VERY NEAR A RECENT BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS RATHER VIGOROUS EXHIBITING WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

[ronjon]

12Z UKMET very similar to CMC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2008070112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF



The 12z run shows the system moving WNW as a tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

328
WHXX01 KWBC 011902
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1902 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080701 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 1800 080702 0600 080702 1800 080703 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 17.7W 12.0N 19.9W 12.2N 22.6W 12.1N 25.5W
BAMD 11.7N 17.7W 11.9N 20.0W 12.3N 22.3W 12.8N 24.7W
BAMM 11.7N 17.7W 12.0N 20.0W 12.3N 22.6W 12.4N 25.3W
LBAR 11.7N 17.7W 11.8N 20.5W 12.2N 23.6W 12.5N 27.0W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 1800 080704 1800 080705 1800 080706 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 28.2W 12.1N 31.7W 16.6N 35.1W 22.4N 40.2W
BAMD 13.4N 27.1W 15.2N 31.8W 18.4N 37.3W 21.9N 41.7W
BAMM 12.4N 27.8W 13.6N 31.7W 17.8N 36.0W 22.6N 40.4W
LBAR 12.9N 30.5W 13.4N 37.7W 14.0N 44.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 60KTS 82KTS 86KTS 82KTS
DSHP 60KTS 82KTS 86KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 17.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 15.3W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 12.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

12z EURO

It shows a strong system moving NW not threatening the Caribbean but maybe Bermuda.

12z NOGAPS

NOGAPS has it tracking WNW and weakens it by the end of run.

[Blown Away]

Seems to be the story line, if 92L strengthens quickly it will move more NW if 92L stays weak it will go more W,

[cycloneye]

According to the 18z sherar forecast,shear values are going to be almost zero thru 120 hours.

Code: Select all

         *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *     GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING         *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  07/01/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    34    39    50    60    73    82    86    86    85    82
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    34    39    50    60    73    82    86    86    85    82
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    27    28    32    38    47    56    64    70    72    73

SHEAR (KTS)       11    10     8     5     4     2     5     1     4     1     4     8    13
SHEAR DIR         88    89    95    92    89   159   141    76    63    51    43   292   276
SST (C)         28.5  28.1  27.6  26.9  26.4  25.9  26.1  26.1  25.5  24.9  24.8  25.1  25.7
POT. INT. (KT)   145   139   132   124   119   114   115   115   110   106   106   108   113
ADJ. POT. INT.   146   138   131   123   118   112   112   110   106   103   102   103   105
200 MB T (C)   -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -54.0 -53.1 -54.1 -52.8 -54.0 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C)       4     3     3     3     3     4     4     5     5     4     4     5     6
700-500 MB RH     81    81    80    78    78    77    69    64    62    61    61    57    53
GFS VTEX (KT)     13    14    16    16    16    18    19    20    22    20    18    17    16
850 MB ENV VOR    65    77    89    96   102   118   127   138   153   130   108    58    23
200 MB DIV        97    87   100   118   124   103   102    96    95    40    48    32    16
LAND (KM)        112   226   348   488   617   883  1143  1360  1535  1739  2001  2216  2354
LAT (DEG N)     11.7  11.9  12.0  12.2  12.3  12.4  12.4  12.6  13.6  15.4  17.8  20.3  22.6
LONG(DEG W)     17.7  18.9  20.0  21.3  22.6  25.3  27.8  29.9  31.7  33.7  36.0  38.3  40.4
STM SPEED (KT)    12    11    12    13    13    13    11    10    12    15    17    16    14
HEAT CONTENT      24    20    11     5     3     0     1     1     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12      CX,CY: -11/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  586  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   1.   4.   8.  13.  17.  20.  22.  23.  25.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   5.   8.  10.  13.  14.  16.  17.  17.  17.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -9. -11. -13. -14. -15.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   5.   3.   2.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   8.   9.   9.   8.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   4.   6.   8.  10.  12.  12.  12.  11.  10.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   5.   9.  14.  25.  35.  48.  57.  61.  61.  60.  57.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   5.   9.  14.  25.  35.  48.  57.  61.  61.  60.  57.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008     INVEST 07/01/08  18 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.7 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : 105.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 106.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  78.2 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  12.6 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is

SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 8 5 4 2 5 1 4 1 4 8 13

Shear increases at 120 hours after being almost at zero.

[RL3AO]

Where to you get the SHIPS model output? I haven't been able to find it.

[cycloneye]

Where to you get the SHIPS model output? I haven't been able to find it.

There you go.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

[KWT]

Hmm a lot of models do prog this to move to the NW though there is a strong high to the north at the moment however there is lower pressure over the UK progged by the models which will allow it to gain latitude.

12z ECM creates what appears to be a hurricane:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

[KWT]

Oh by the way the 18z GFS is starting to run now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

[ekal]

Oh by the way the 18z GFS is starting to run now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

Eh, not yet. That's yesterday's run, which I thought was a horrible initialization until I realized it is 24 hours old.

[NDG]

Oh by the way the 18z GFS is starting to run now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

Eh, not yet. That's yesterday's run, which I thought was a horrible initialization until I realized it is 24 hours old.

Yeah, I was wondering why it was coming out an hour earlier.

[KWT]

No thats todays run, maybe you need to refresh your browser because its showing todays date.

[MiamiensisWx]

No thats todays run, maybe you need to refresh your browser because its showing todays date.

Directory indicates it is indeed yesterday's 18Z run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/

30 June

[NDG]

KTW, today is July 1st, change your calendar,