EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida

#21 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:51 pm

There may be some easterly shear affeciting 98E as the LLC is now almost completely exposed west of the convection.

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 101315.GIF

KWT · #22 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 5:31 pm

It doesn't look bad asof now, needs watching as this could well eventually become our next system. Right now looks a little elongated mind you and there probably is as Hurakan says some shear on this invest.

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:12 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 102358
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING TODAY
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS POORLY-ORGANIZED SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

A SMALL AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA...HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIMITED BUT
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Chacor · #24 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:25 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:[Because this is the eastern pacific in this is not a threat to land.

I cannot begin to even explain how wrong this is on so many levels.

#25 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:35 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0012 UTC FRI JUL 11 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982008) 20080711 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080711 0000 080711 1200 080712 0000 080712 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.2N 91.2W 9.0N 93.3W 9.9N 95.4W 10.6N 97.4W
BAMD 8.2N 91.2W 8.9N 93.6W 9.5N 96.1W 9.8N 98.6W
BAMM 8.2N 91.2W 9.0N 93.4W 9.8N 95.8W 10.5N 98.1W
LBAR 8.2N 91.2W 8.9N 93.3W 10.2N 95.9W 11.4N 99.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080713 0000 080714 0000 080715 0000 080716 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 99.1W 11.8N 101.6W 12.3N 103.7W 12.4N 106.0W
BAMD 10.1N 101.0W 10.5N 104.8W 10.9N 107.7W 11.2N 110.6W
BAMM 11.1N 100.3W 11.8N 103.6W 12.4N 106.3W 12.4N 109.0W
LBAR 12.4N 102.3W 14.5N 108.4W 16.9N 113.0W 13.5N 116.6W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 57KTS 61KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 57KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 91.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 7.9N LONM12 = 90.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 7.8N LONM24 = 88.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:50 am

WHXX01 KMIA 111240
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC FRI JUL 11 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982008) 20080711 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080711 1200 080712 0000 080712 1200 080713 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.3N 92.6W 11.4N 94.5W 12.4N 96.4W 13.3N 98.1W
BAMD 10.3N 92.6W 11.2N 94.8W 11.9N 97.0W 12.6N 99.1W
BAMM 10.3N 92.6W 11.5N 94.7W 12.3N 96.9W 13.2N 99.0W
LBAR 10.3N 92.6W 11.8N 94.9W 13.3N 97.7W 14.4N 100.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080713 1200 080714 1200 080715 1200 080716 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 99.7W 15.5N 102.8W 17.0N 106.0W 18.2N 110.3W
BAMD 13.2N 101.0W 14.6N 104.5W 16.0N 108.1W 17.2N 112.6W
BAMM 13.8N 100.9W 15.4N 104.8W 16.9N 108.8W 18.1N 113.8W
LBAR 15.3N 103.8W 17.5N 109.5W 19.9N 113.9W 22.5N 116.8W
SHIP 54KTS 67KTS 73KTS 74KTS
DSHP 54KTS 67KTS 73KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 92.6W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 8.4N LONM12 = 90.9W DIRM12 = 326DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 7.9N LONM24 = 90.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

#27 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:27 am

There you can see the center partially exposed.

Chacor · #28 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:52 pm

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR ONLY MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

#29 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 1:17 pm

Todays TCFA.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
90.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 92.6W, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
AN 111103Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICT FLARING, ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
JUST WEST OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH TWO LARGER, PERSISTENT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH MODERATE, EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE DISTURBANCE AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED 15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE THEREFORE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC, NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER WARMER SST AND HIGHER OHC, AND EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
GOOD.

#30 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 1:25 pm

Yesterday I said that the TCFA was issued too early and it was true. Looking at the system today, the appears to be a well-defined LLC and curve bands of rainfall continue to develop, especially over the northern-side. Development is possible in the next 24 hours IF it can mantain a healthy area of thunderstorms co-located with the LLC.

#31 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:22 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 111905
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1905 UTC FRI JUL 11 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982008) 20080711 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080711 1800 080712 0600 080712 1800 080713 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.1N 93.9W 12.3N 95.8W 13.3N 97.6W 14.0N 99.0W
BAMD 11.1N 93.9W 11.9N 96.1W 12.5N 98.3W 13.1N 100.2W
BAMM 11.1N 93.9W 12.2N 96.0W 13.0N 98.0W 13.7N 99.7W
LBAR 11.1N 93.9W 12.5N 96.3W 13.8N 99.2W 14.9N 102.3W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 45KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 45KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080713 1800 080714 1800 080715 1800 080716 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 100.5W 15.6N 103.8W 16.3N 107.7W 16.2N 112.7W
BAMD 13.7N 102.1W 14.8N 105.8W 15.6N 110.0W 16.5N 114.9W
BAMM 14.3N 101.5W 15.5N 105.1W 16.4N 109.5W 17.2N 114.7W
LBAR 15.8N 105.4W 18.2N 110.8W 21.1N 115.2W 29.0N 119.7W
SHIP 64KTS 73KTS 75KTS 75KTS
DSHP 64KTS 73KTS 75KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 93.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 91.5W DIRM12 = 319DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 90.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

KWT · #32 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:33 pm

Possibly Hurakan, I do think this system has a chance of becoming our next tropical depression as long as the convection can stay near the center. Also SHIPS still progging this to become a powerful system but we will have to see!

#33 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:51 pm

Looking better than this morning:

#34 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:46 pm

Convection has improved.

#35 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:59 pm

5 PM PDT TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

#36 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 10:32 pm

Intense convection.

#37 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 10:47 pm

It has a closed or nearly closed LLC.

#38 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 10:50 pm

If it persists in having deep convection and the low doesnt get exposed,I see it as TD Six-E sometime on Saturday.

Chacor · #39 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 10:56 pm

ATCF says 06E.

#40 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:00 pm

And Noname at NRL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC

Re: Re:

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC

Who is online