ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[Gustywind]

Waouw this path is fairly amazing just on Guadeloupe and near Huc's location at Basse Terre, hopefully it's just a run but not really funny and that's means Cycloneye that you could be in the cone of impact given the famous Herbert Box, ....

[Gustywind]

Given the Clip but we have time no worry for the moment we have seen more agressive paths; but carefully we should keep an eye within the next couple of days...

[chadtm80]

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS is running...

120 hrs (5 days from now) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120s.gif

144 hrs (6 days from now) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144s.gif

168 hrs (7 days from now) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168s.gif

192 hrs from now = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192s.gif

The system recurves just east of the bahamas in this run, but gets too close to the CONUS for comfort (especially since the GFS is notorious for recurving a system too early at times).

[Aric Dunn]

this is becoming a scary run now.. the weakness build back after bertha .. 94l ( cristobal ) making a beeline for SE us

[KWT]

The thing is the GFS does seem to decay the high a little fast past 180hrs as we see normally as the jump from high resolution to a much lower resolution. Very early days for the models and want to see this develop first but worrying trends for the Caribbean and possibly the USA.

[cycloneye]

First GFDL plots for 94L.Tracks near the NE Caribbean islands of Antigua,Barbuda,St Marteen.

WHXX04 KWBC 131725
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 8.9 37.1 280./ 6.0
6 9.4 37.5 315./ 6.3
12 10.0 37.7 343./ 6.2
18 10.6 38.5 308./ 9.6
24 10.8 39.5 285./10.3
30 11.2 40.6 288./11.5
36 11.2 41.6 273./ 9.9
42 11.6 42.7 285./11.3
48 11.9 44.0 287./13.3
54 12.2 45.4 281./13.8
60 12.4 46.5 279./10.8
66 12.8 47.7 289./12.3
72 13.1 49.1 284./14.4
78 13.5 50.4 285./13.4
84 14.0 51.7 290./13.2
90 14.4 53.3 287./15.9
96 15.1 54.5 299./13.1
102 16.1 56.0 303./17.6
108 16.8 57.5 295./16.7
114 17.5 59.2 293./17.6
120 18.3 60.8 297./16.4
126 19.0 62.2 297./15.5

[Extremeweatherguy]

[hurricanefloyd5]

this is becoming a scary run now.. the weakness build back after bertha .. 94l ( cristobal ) making a beeline for SE us

I say don't worry about this system because even if it is headed to the USA then worrying about it will do no good so I say prepare and stay clam and things will work out just fine!!!!

[KWT]

Looks like the GFDL takes it way too far north to quickly but the general track of WNW looks pretty reasonable right now, the key is what happens after that.

Anyway models are not looking good for the NE Caribbean right now.

[canegrl04]

Models beginning to trend in opposite direction.No surprise there. For now the only guess is somewhere between S.America and a fish

[KWT]

When does the GFDL intensity graphs come out so we can see how strong or weak it has 94L by the time it reaches the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

When does the GFDL intensity graphs come out so we can see how strong or weak it has 94L by the time it reaches the Caribbean.

A little after 2 PM EDT.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My prediction right now is that this system will take a track somewhere in between the current GFDL and CLP5 tracks, impacting the NE islands then possibly becoming a problem for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and the Bahamas. Also, looking out into the far future, I do not believe that this storm will try to turn northward until after reaching at least 70W, meaning it could potentially be a threat to the east coast of the US from the southern tip of FL northward.

[KWT]

Needs very close watching, the thing is the GFS does sometimes overdo weakness in high pressures but this time we have an added problem with how much will be left of Bertha and how much of a weakness is left, if its larger then the more north 94L will get earlier.

[hawkeh]

Interesting runs so far, I'm watching it closely as I was supposed to be doing a fishing trip right around the time this would be effecting our area

[Aric Dunn]

although this is for bertha . .the hwrf develops 94l

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

GFDL has a strong cat 2 threatening the NE islands.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[stormchazer]

GFDL has a strong cat 2 threatening the NE islands.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

At the end of this run it does apppear to be a weakness where 94L could chase Bertha off to the North and NE. Bertha makes the dynamics here very interesting.

[brunota2003]

Looks like the GFDL peaks at 100 knots, which is a Category 3...however, those winds are 35 meters above the surface.