ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Models

[Ed Mahmoud]

SHIPs seems to imply things aren't wildly favorable through about 36 hours. Maybe after that, if there is anything left. Doesn't look like much.



Canadian likes it, (well, the Canadian likes everything), and after a head fake out to sea, turns it back, runs it up just off the East Coast, and hits Nova Scotia in 9 days

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


Trough by day 5, Conditions more favorable in a day.

[cycloneye]

The BAMS go more west avoiding Hispanola.


WHXX01 KWBC 191757
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1757 UTC FRI SEP 19 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080919 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080919 1800 080920 0600 080920 1800 080921 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 64.4W 14.0N 66.5W 15.1N 68.5W 16.2N 70.6W
BAMD 13.3N 64.4W 13.6N 65.7W 14.3N 67.1W 15.1N 68.6W
BAMM 13.3N 64.4W 13.6N 66.1W 14.5N 67.9W 15.5N 69.7W
LBAR 13.3N 64.4W 13.8N 66.0W 14.8N 68.0W 16.0N 69.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080921 1800 080922 1800 080923 1800 080924 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 72.7W 19.0N 76.7W 19.9N 80.3W 20.4N 83.0W
BAMD 15.8N 70.2W 17.0N 73.2W 17.6N 75.6W 18.0N 77.5W
BAMM 16.4N 71.6W 18.0N 75.3W 18.8N 78.3W 19.1N 80.3W
LBAR 17.4N 71.7W 18.8N 74.4W 18.5N 76.1W 17.7N 77.1W
SHIP 50KTS 62KTS 69KTS 73KTS
DSHP 50KTS 62KTS 69KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 64.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 62.5W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 60.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Rainband]

My sister in coming into TIA at 1230pm on Thursday. No storms allowed around here. At any rate seems to me that this thing if it develops would be too far south for a front to pick it up.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

My sister in coming into TIA at 1230pm on Thursday. No storms allowed around here. At any rate seems to me that this thing if it develops would be too far south for a front to pick it up.

Hopefully it will be too far south for a front to recurve it into Florida, but my
worry is that in the image Ed posted above the low along a trough
off the east coast is very deep, and that is at day 7, implying
that the deep trough would be nearing FL by day 5...

[gatorcane]

My sister in coming into TIA at 1230pm on Thursday. No storms allowed around here. At any rate seems to me that this thing if it develops would be too far south for a front to pick it up.

Hopefully it will be too far south for a front to recurve it into Florida, but my
worry is that in the image Ed posted above the low along a trough
off the east coast is very deep, and that is at day 7, implying
that the deep trough would be nearing FL by day 5...

Yeah so a few things:

1)it only has a medium probability for development
2)the models are not entirely accurate (precise is the better word recalling a section of an old physics book) so no need to pay attention.
3)Steering patterns are actually suggesting more of a bend east of the CONUS anyway....of course the BAMMs are not going to see that so.....

one or more of the points I stated above may be entirely inaccurate by tomorrow.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

My sister in coming into TIA at 1230pm on Thursday. No storms allowed around here. At any rate seems to me that this thing if it develops would be too far south for a front to pick it up.

Hopefully it will be too far south for a front to recurve it into Florida, but my
worry is that in the image Ed posted above the low along a trough
off the east coast is very deep, and that is at day 7, implying
that the deep trough would be nearing FL by day 5...

Yeah so a few things:

1)it only has a medium probability for development
2)the models are not entirely accurate (precise is the better word recalling a section of an old physics book) so no need to pay attention.
3)Steering patterns are actually suggesting more of a bend east of the CONUS anyway....of course the BAMMs are not going to see that so.....

one or more of the points I stated above may be entirely inaccurate by tomorrow.

I'd say recurve east of Florida if this were north of the caribbean but given how far south it is and the WNW flow
through the Caribbean it might be near Cuba in 5 days,
during which a trough might push it into Florida's west coast. The trough
is progged to be very strong as it moves across the Gulf.

[HurricaneFreak]

Hmm okay well we just got to see have far west this storm will move and the trough is expected to strengthen which may bring the storm towards Florida.Can one of you give me a choice of which sscenario this storm could follow.Could it be like any of these tracks and which is the best?Ernesto,Wilma,Charley,Barry?

[Blown Away]

Hmm okay well we just got to see have far west this storm will move and the trough is expected to strengthen which may bring the storm towards Florida.Can one of you give me a choice of which sscenario this storm could follow.Could it be like any of these tracks and which is the best?Ernesto,Wilma,Charley,Barry?

93L could never develope, go W into CA, WNW into the GOM, E of Florida, or into SFL. I don't think this is a sure thing for SFL at all.

[Sanibel]

Was trying to tell people yesterday that convection rarely lies in this area at this time of year.

[HurricaneFreak]

Why do u say invest93 could not develop?

[cycloneye]

Well,the 18z GFDL run gives a little more life to 93L as it goes up to 42 hours compared with the only 6 hours in the 12z run.

WHXX04 KWBC 192324
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.9 64.3 270./ 8.9
6 13.5 64.9 315./ 8.0
12 13.9 65.9 291./ 9.8
18 14.8 66.9 311./13.4
24 15.4 66.8 4./ 7.0
30 16.6 67.4 336./12.9
36 17.6 67.3 7./ 9.5
42 17.6 68.5 270./11.4

STORM DISSIPATED AT 42 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 200035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC SAT SEP 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080920 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080920 0000 080920 1200 080921 0000 080921 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 64.8W 14.7N 66.7W 15.6N 68.6W 16.9N 70.9W
BAMD 13.9N 64.8W 14.4N 66.0W 15.2N 67.3W 15.8N 68.6W
BAMM 13.9N 64.8W 14.4N 66.5W 15.1N 68.1W 15.9N 70.0W
LBAR 13.9N 64.8W 14.8N 66.4W 16.2N 68.1W 17.5N 69.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080922 0000 080923 0000 080924 0000 080925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 72.7W 19.1N 76.9W 19.7N 80.6W 20.1N 83.6W
BAMD 16.4N 69.9W 17.0N 72.3W 17.2N 74.3W 17.5N 76.0W
BAMM 16.7N 71.8W 17.6N 75.2W 18.0N 78.3W 18.5N 80.5W
LBAR 18.6N 70.9W 18.6N 72.8W 17.5N 74.0W 17.5N 74.1W
SHIP 47KTS 56KTS 62KTS 63KTS
DSHP 47KTS 56KTS 56KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.9N LONCUR = 64.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 63.4W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 61.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HouTXmetro]

Well what is the EURO saying?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well what is the EURO saying?

Don't think the Euro develops this, unless this becomes the very weak low pressure it eventually puts into the BOC. Hard to tell with the Euro, either using the PSU e-Wall, which does show 850 mb vorticity and RH, or ECMWF page, because of the 24 hour increments.

Euro does develop a sub-tropical or tropical system by the Carolinas, and JB theorized 93L may add energy to the disturbed weather already formed by a stalled front and a long and strong Easterly fetch created by a big high moving into the Northeast.

[Weatherfreak000]

GFS seems the most reasonable...clearly this storm is a great deal away from development...would that not keep it on a W-WNW track for at least the next two to three days? That's what I has assumed

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at 850 mb loop from GFS, well, GFS is not impressed with 93L. But it has a disturbance coming from Africa that heads Northwest, but bends back Westward this time next week, probably too far North to menace Lesser Antilles, but maybe an East Coast or Bermuda threat. Run currently through 168 hours, and I need to go to bed soon.

[HurricaneRobert]

93L?

[Hurricaneman]

what im thinking is part of 93l goes into the BOC and another peice goes up the east coast, thats what the Euro has been showing even though I could be wrong

[lonelymike]

Well what is the EURO saying?

Don't think the Euro develops this, unless this becomes the very weak low pressure it eventually puts into the BOC. Hard to tell with the Euro, either using the PSU e-Wall, which does show 850 mb vorticity and RH, or ECMWF page, because of the 24 hour increments.

Euro does develop a sub-tropical or tropical system by the Carolinas, and JB theorized 93L may add energy to the disturbed weather already formed by a stalled front and a long and strong Easterly fetch created by a big high moving into the Northeast.

Heading for Texas