SIO: ex-ASMA: Tropical Disturbance - Discussion

[Chacor]

Upgraded to TD.

WTIO30 FMEE 170011
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2008/10/17 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.4S / 68.3E
(FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/17 12 UTC: 05.7S/67.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/10/18 00 UTC: 06.4S/66.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/10/18 12 UTC: 07.0S/65.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/19 00 UTC: 07.7S/65.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/10/19 12 UTC: 08.4S/64.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/10/20 00 UTC: 09.1S/63.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+

EVEN IF DEEP CONVECTION STILL DEPENDS ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE (ENHANCING
DURING THE NIGHT AND WEAKENING DURING THE DAY), CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY
INCREASE IN THE END OF DAY, THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS IMPROVING. HOWEVER THE CENTER REMAINS UNDER THE
NORTH-EASTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A LIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS MODERATE BECOMING WEAK TO MODERATE
END OF THE PERIOD, DIVERGENCE IS FAVORABLE AND SST ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
NORTHWARDS, EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ARE ENFANCED BY THE ACTUAL WET PHASIS
OF MJO AND THE TWIN CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.=

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2008 Time : 233100 UTC
Lat : 5:31:32 S Lon : 68:02:42 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 992.2mb/ 43.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.9 3.2 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -82.6C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

Sun coming up for this system.

[CrazyC83]

That looks quite intense...

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 170628

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2
2.A POSITION 2008/10/17 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.3S / 68.4E
(SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/17 18 UTC: 07.0S/68.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/10/18 06 UTC: 07.8S/67.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/10/18 18 UTC: 08.4S/66.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/19 06 UTC: 09.3S/65.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2008/10/19 18 UTC: 10.0S/64.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2008/10/20 06 UTC: 10.7S/63.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE APPEARS IN THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION,
DUE TO A PERSISTANT MODERATE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. LLCC
APPEARS POORLIER DEFINED ON THE 17/0300z F17/SSMI DATA AND THE MET7
ANIMATED IMAGERY.
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS, WESTERLIES
EQUTORWARD - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS AND THE TWIN
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE EASTERLIES OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, SST ARE OF THE ORDER OF 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. AS THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE UP TO TAU 36, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVOURABLE TO AN INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER RATHER SLOW.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 171212

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2
2.A POSITION 2008/10/17 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.7S / 68.6E
(SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST
)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/18 00 UTC: 07.5S/68.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/10/18 12 UTC: 08.7S/67.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/10/19 00 UTC: 09.8S/66.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/19 12 UTC: 10.8S/65.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2008/10/20 00 UTC: 11.9S/63.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2008/10/20 12 UTC: 12.4S/62.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED IN THE EASTERN SECTOR OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH HAS REBUILT NEAR THE CENTRE ON THE VERY
LAST SATELLITE IMAGES.
THE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, CURRENTLY STRONG, SHOULD
DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, SSTS
ARE OF THE ORDER OF 28 DEGREES CELSIUS (OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL IS
SUFFICIENT NORTH OF 13S). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE TO AN
INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVE
R RATHER SLOW.
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; EQUATORWARD WELL
ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS AND
THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE WEAK TO MODERATE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTERLIES.
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONEMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY DRIFT RATHER SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE FORECAST IS ISSUED FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE NWP.

[HURAKAN]

Shear appears to be affecting the system.

[HURAKAN]

[wyq614]

RSMC Reunion strikes??

BULLETIN DU 17 OCTOBRE A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02-20082009

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1000 HPA.
POSITION LE 17 OCTOBRE A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 7.2 SUD / 68.4 EST
(SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2045 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 9.2S/66.6E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 11.4S/64.5E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 12.6S/61.6E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
EN RAISON D'UN MOUVEMENT DE GREVE CE BULLETIN POURRAIT NE PAS ETRE ACTUALISE REGULIEREMENT.

I'm asking if this sentence means "due to a movement of strike, this bulletin may not be released regurlarly"

[Iune]

BECAUSE OF A STRIKE THIS NEWSLETTER COULD NOT BE UPDATED REGULARLY.

[wyq614]

So who strikes? The pro mets of Reunion or the editors of the website? According to the translantion of Phoenix's Song, it seems to be the latter?

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Probably the website people. The RSMC has to continue operations and keep to its six-hourly international bulletins.

Downgraded to a Tropical Disturbance:

WTIO30 FMEE 180011
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2

2.A POSITION 2008/10/18 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.1S / 68.8E
(EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/18 12 UTC: 09.6S/68.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/10/19 00 UTC: 10.8S/66.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/10/19 12 UTC: 11.7S/65.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/20 00 UTC: 12.7S/63.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/10/20 12 UTC: 13.3S/62.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/10/21 00 UTC: 13.3S/60.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0

1636Z ASCAT SWATH CONFIMRS THAT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER DIDN'T REACH NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT ANYMORE.
30/35 KT EXISTS HOWEVER FAR FROM THE CENTER BETWEEN 240KM AND 370KM IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES (WINDS HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 1327Z AND 1636Z
SCATTEROMETRY).
NOAA18 IN THE NIR CHANNEL 3 AT 2143Z REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, CURRENTLY STRONG, SHOULD
DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, SSTS
ARE OF THE ORDER OF 27/28 DEGREES CELSIUS (OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL IS
SUFFICIENT NORTH OF 13S). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE TOAN
INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER RATHER SLOW.
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; EQUATORWARD
WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS
AND THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE WEAK TO MODERATE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTERLIES.
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONEMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY DRIFT RATHER SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE FORECAST IS ISSUED FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE NWP AND REMAINS CLOSED OF THE EUROPEAN ECMWF SCENARIO.=

[HURAKAN]

Intense blow-up of convection.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 180628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2

2.A POSITION 2008/10/18 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 69.1E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/18 18 UTC: 10.4S/68.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/10/19 06 UTC: 11.5S/67.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/10/19 18 UTC: 12.2S/66.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/20 06 UTC: 12.6S/64.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/10/20 18 UTC: 13.0S/63.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/10/21 06 UTC: 13.2S/62.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN
SECTOR OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT IS LOOSING ITS ORGANIZATION
AND IS LESS AND LESS WELL DEFINED.

THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD, BUT THE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR REMAINS STRONG FOR THE MOMENT. THIS WINDSHEAR SHOULD
DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SST ARE NEAR 27/28 DEGREES
CELSIUS (OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT NORTH OF 13S). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION.

THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; EQUATORWARD
WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS
AND THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE WEAK TO MODERATE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTERLIES.

WITHIN THIS ENVIRONEMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY DRIFT RATHER SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE FORECAST IS ISSUED FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE NWP AND REMAINS CLOSED OF THE EUROPEAN ECMWF SCENARIO.=

[Chacor]

Centre being covered, slowly, by convection.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 181218
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2

2.A POSITION 2008/10/18 AT 1200 UTC : 8.7S / 67.7E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: SO: 150 NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/19 00 UTC: 09.8S/66.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/10/19 12 UTC: 10.9S/65.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/10/20 00 UTC: 11.8S/64.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/20 12 UTC: 12.6S/62.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/10/21 00 UTC: 12.9S/60.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/10/21 12 UTC: 12.9S/58.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN
SECTOR OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE DISTORSION OF THE LLCC AT
THE END OF THE LAST NIGHT HAS LEAD TO THE RE-DEFINITION OF THIS LLCC,
WHICH HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE WESTWARDS DURING THE LAST HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD, BUT THE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR REMAINS STRONG FOR THE MOMENT. THIS WINDSHEAR
SHOULD DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SST ARE NEAR 27/28 DEGREES
CELSIUS (OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT NORTH OF 13S).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; EQUATORWARD
WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS
AND THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE DOMINATING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTERLIES.

WITHIN THIS ENVIRONEMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY DRIFT RATHER
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE FORECAST IS ISSUED FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE NWP AND REMAINS CLOSED OF THE EUROPEAN ECMWF SCENARIO.=

Not sure how they're giving a 30-kt wind radius in SW and NW quads when it's analysed at 25 kt, but okay...