ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[dixiebreeze]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1745 UTC 17.2N 87.0W T1.0/1.0 IN2 -- Atlantic Ocean
19/1145 UTC 17.6N 87.3W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

[kpost]

sea temps are definitely on the side of development.

[boca]

Will 91L be an issue for Florida later on in the week?

[Just Joshing You]

Will 91L be an issue for Florida later on in the week?

Who will win the World Series?

[boca]

Will 91L be an issue for Florida later on in the week?

Who will win the World Series?

I'll go with the Phillies.

[MiamiensisWx]

Will 91L be an issue for Florida later on in the week?

Yes... you're correct.

Addendum: By the way, does anyone have a comprehensive link to surface observations (land/sea) from the western Caribbean basin? Thanks!

[AJC3]

By the way, does anyone have a comprehensive link to surface observations (land/sea) from the western Caribbean basin? Thanks!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/carib/index.php
is one of the better ones for METARS over land.

I'm sure you've seen...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Caribbean.shtml
and
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/West_Caribbean.shtml
for getting buoy and C-man observations.

I've looked far an wide to find a good site with both METAR and buoy/C-man sites together (either already plotted, or otherwise), but really haven't found anything to my liking yet.

[kpost]

off topic slightly, If (big if) this develops enough to cause damage to Florida. will the news even really cover it, with the election and economy and all? hmmm....well we are a swing state so maybe they will. Poor Texas has been ignored with all this other stuff.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Closed circulation, not sure if it is at the surface, judging from vis loops. Moving slowly, maybe drifting sightly Westward, toward the Yucatan.



La Ceiba, WSW 2 mph, 1010 mb.

Teal, NNW at 9 mph, 1010 mb.

Might have a surface circulation. Might not, don't know enough local weather to recognize microscale/sea breeze/local effects.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Double post from model thread, but it fits here as well...



If the GFS is close to correct, this won't do much in the Gulf. Shear in excess of 28 m/s (ballpark 60 knots) entire Gulf North of latitude of about Key West continuously beyond 96 hours.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSTROPATL_12z/gfsloop.html


Only vaguely related (low pressure in Caribbean & big Canadian high pushing into Northeast), nice pressure gradient/onshore flow, maybe elevated tides for EC Florida Wednesday into the weekend.

[MGC]

I'd speculate that 91L is on its way to becoming a TD. IMO, 91L looks more organized than TD 16 was. 91L has convection near its circulation center while TD 16 didn't. Hopefully this will go west, as I'm headed to the Florida Keys later this week and I don't want my parade rained on....MGC

[boca]

MGC were protected by the Tampa Bay shield which has been protecting us this 2008 season. Go to the Keys and you'll probably have sunshine.

[jinftl]

If I had to guess, I would say the upcoming presidential election will be a bigger issue for florida given the issues we have seen in past years...that may be the true catastrophe if it happens.

But back to 91L....it is something to keep an eye on....storms like even florida's version of wilma do not happen every day...or every season....so the most likely outcome from a probability standpoint is....could be a noticeable event, but as of now it isn't.

Will 91L be an issue for Florida later on in the week?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'd speculate that 91L is on its way to becoming a TD. IMO, 91L looks more organized than TD 16 was. 91L has convection near its circulation center while TD 16 didn't. Hopefully this will go west, as I'm headed to the Florida Keys later this week and I don't want my parade rained on....MGC

Unofficially, and from an amateur, passage over the Yucatan will weaken strengthening when conditions are generally favorable, then incredible shear over the Gulf will limit it greatly.

May rain on your parade, but I don't, in my amateur and unofficial opinion, see how this could be more than a TS for Florida if the GFS is anywhere near close to correct.

[jinftl]

Ah, but even a sheared mess of a tropical storm would still be 'something'....at least as far as tropical activity. All comes down to one's definition of something....and let's face it, a tropical storm effecing florida would be good for hundreds of pages of posts in a very short amount of time on this board!!!

Right now, dozens of florida members here are doing finger exercises to keep their hands from cramping due to typing posts!!! I can see the posts now....posts on why it will become a hurricane, posts on why it won't, posts on the morality of getting excited by hurricanes even though this is a forum for that, posts on what to expect in one's hometown, posts by those seeing the system organizing, posts on those who see it falling apart.....good stuff!!!

I'd speculate that 91L is on its way to becoming a TD. IMO, 91L looks more organized than TD 16 was. 91L has convection near its circulation center while TD 16 didn't. Hopefully this will go west, as I'm headed to the Florida Keys later this week and I don't want my parade rained on....MGC

Unofficially, and from an amateur, passage over the Yucatan will weaken strengthening when conditions are generally favorable, then incredible shear over the Gulf will limit it greatly.

May rain on your parade, but I don't, in my amateur and unofficial opinion, see how this could be more than a TS for Florida if the GFS is anywhere near close to correct.

[wxman57]

Looks like a broad area of low pressure with 5-15 kts winds around it. Pressures 1010-1012mb around the NW Caribbean. Low, mid and high-level steering currents take it inland in 24 hours or so. Once it crosses into the southern Gulf around Wed-Thu it'll move into the "shear zone" ahead of the approaching front. The vorticity will shoot NE up the front, as per the GFS, EC, and CMC. There may be an LLC or it may just be an area of moisture. Probably nothing significant for Florida, wind-wise.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Threads I've started for possible snow in Kansas and near Boston this week go unread. Seems almost unfair, but a 40 mph, badly sheared, tropical/sub-tropical storm headed for Florida (not an official forecast, since I'm neither official or professional) would generate dozens of pages of comments.


I hope it snows in Florida this winter, at least as far South in the interior as Orlando. Imagine the thread that'll be, if well forecasted.

Ah, but even a sheared mess of a tropical storm would still be 'something'....at least as far as tropical activity. All comes down to one's definition of something....and let's face it, a tropical storm effecing florida would be good for hundreds of pages of posts in a very short amount of time on this board!!!

Right now, dozens of florida members here are doing finger exercises to keep their hands from cramping due to typing posts!!! I can see the posts now....posts on why it will become a hurricane, posts on why it won't, posts on the morality of getting excited by hurricanes even though this is a forum for that, posts on what to expect in one's hometown, posts by those seeing the system organizing, posts on those who see it falling apart.....good stuff!!!

I'd speculate that 91L is on its way to becoming a TD. IMO, 91L looks more organized than TD 16 was. 91L has convection near its circulation center while TD 16 didn't. Hopefully this will go west, as I'm headed to the Florida Keys later this week and I don't want my parade rained on....MGC

Unofficially, and from an amateur, passage over the Yucatan will weaken strengthening when conditions are generally favorable, then incredible shear over the Gulf will limit it greatly.

May rain on your parade, but I don't, in my amateur and unofficial opinion, see how this could be more than a TS for Florida if the GFS is anywhere near close to correct.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That heat content is phenomenol! Mitch and Wilma Bombed to 180 mph
Category 5s in the same locations- if the center relocates further
offshore, we could see some rapid intensification with low shear
in the caribbean. A major hurricane forming here is a distinct possibility
IMO.

[jinftl]

All comes down to marketing and location...but other than the words 'season over' (sorry....had to go there...all in good fun Ed), saying 'florida' and 'storm threat' are the quickest ways to give the site an adrenaline rush of activity. In fact, if you really want to get people animated here....say 'south florida'. Fightin' words!!!

In a weird cosmic way, maybe it is florida's turn. my science behind that is this....in 2005, there was katrina on the northern gulf coast, rita in tx/la, and wilma in florida. Well we have had Gustav and Ike. so all we need is Paloma to complete the 'cycle of 3's' like we saw in 2005. Add to it, that Wilma hit on October 25 and it is now approaching late october...eerie eerie (ok, not really...but the comparison would be made between the 2 seasons at least as far as the 3 storms in a non-technical way).

And yes, talk of snow in Orlando....or even better, in Miami, would get a buzz....but how many chances would you get each year to make those posts...trust me, 'south florida' and 'storm threat' will give you the biggest posting bang for your buck.

Threads I've started for possible snow in Kansas and near Boston this week go unread. Seems almost unfair, but a 40 mph, badly sheared, tropical/sub-tropical storm headed for Florida (not an official forecast, since I'm neither official or professional) would generate dozens of pages of comments.


I hope it snows in Florida this winter, at least as far South in the interior as Orlando. Imagine the thread that'll be, if well forecasted.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

MGC were protected by the Tampa Bay shield which has been protecting us this 2008 season. Go to the Keys and you'll probably have sunshine.

So far in 2008 Only...the tampa bay shield has been protecting us.
But the shield is very weak- it gets broken often by Hurricane
Conditions:
2004- Hurricane Jeanne, 78 mph in Tampa Bay
2005- Hurricane Wilma, 76 mph Florida Highway Patrol Skyway
2006- Severe Frontal Low/Derecho on November 15th, 2006, severe weather
reports for the nation show a blue square indicative of 65 kt = 75 mph + winds
offshore Tampa Bay
2007- Hurricane Olga's remnant circulation after it decreased to a depression
intensified rapidly with the aid of a cold front, and in December hit the
Tampa Bay area bringing 78 mph recorded winds to Clearwater Beach.

Therefore, 4 years in a row hurricane conditions have been experienced in the Tampa Bay Area.

Hopefully 91L will NOT break the shield.