SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[P.K.]

Completely skipped STS status here.

WTIO20 FMEE 051223
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/02/2008 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 05/02/2008 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 80.9E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WHITHIN 110 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 240 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITHIN A PERIPHERAL BAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER
STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/02/06 AT 00 UTC:
13.7S / 81.3E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H, VALID 2008/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
13.8S / 81.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
"HONDO" IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM AND UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS , HAS INTENSIFYED VERY QUICKLY DURING LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.
IT HAS REACHED MINIMAL STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING VERY SLOWLY GLOBALLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY
ACCELERATING ON THIS TRACK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REMAINING FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE ALL
RANGES OF THIS FORECAST , SO "HONDO" SHOULD KEEP ON GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING.
HOWEVER, ITS SLOW TRACK COULD LIMIT THE ENERGETIC OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
IN CONSEQUENCE ITS INTENSIFICATION, THIS SCENARIO IS NOT FORECASTED AT
THIS TIME LINKED TO ITS SMALL SIZE AND SO THE LIMITED OCEANIC MIXED AREA.
WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRED THANKS TO LAST AVAILABLE
SCATTEROMETRY DATAS.
MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL LINKED TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.

[Pedro Fernández]

An eye better defined (in this channel, of course)?

[Chacor]

232
WTIO30 FMEE 051304

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/05 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 80.9E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/06 00 UTC: 13.7S/81.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/02/06 12 UTC: 13.8S/81.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/07 00 UTC: 13.9S/82.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/07 12 UTC: 14.2S/82.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2008/02/08 00 UTC: 14.5S/83.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2008/02/08 12 UTC: 15.1S/84.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-
SYSTEM HAS QUICKLY INTENSIFIED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STAGE DURING THE
NIGHT AND HAS BEEN NAMED "HONDO" AT 0545UTC. SINCE 0630Z, "HONDO" SHOWS A
EYE BAND FEATURE AND THEN A CLOSED EYE, WELL SHOWED ON MICROWAVE 0809Z
AQUA SWATH.
CONVECTIVE CENTRAL AREA IS 50 NM DIAMETER, "HONDO" ALSO SEEMS EVOLUATING
TO A MIDGET STORM.
LAST METEOSAT7 IMAGERY DOESN'T SHOW THIS EYE ANYMORE BUT MIDGET STORMS
HAVE USUAL FLUCTUATION AT THIS STAGE. IT IS NOT NECESSARY A SIGN OF
WEAKENING.
DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE EYE AND THE PARALAX, METEOSAT7
UNDERESTIMATES REAL EYE TEMPERATURE AND DOES NOT PERMIT A CORRECT DVORAK
ANALYSE IN ENFORCED INFRARED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
WINDSHEAR IS WEAK UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE , UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
GOOD POLEWARD AND LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS SUSTAINED BY A WELL
ESTABLISHED MONSOON FLOW.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED REMAINING QUASI-STATIONNARY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS
UNEDRGOING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS (UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 700 AND 500 HPA
IN THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN ITS SOUTHWEST).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REMAINING FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE ALL
RANGES OF THIS FORECAST , SO "HONDO" SHOULD KEEP ON GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING.
HOWEVER, ITS SLOW TRACK COULD LIMIT THE ENERGETIC OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
IN CONSEQUENCE ITS INTENSIFICATION, THIS SCENARIO IS NOT FORECASTED AT
THIS TIME LINKED TO ITS SMALL SIZE AND SO THE LIMITED OCEANIC MIXED AREA.
RMW HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 0809Z AQUA AND 30KT WINDS EXTENSION
THANKS TO 0105Z QUIKSCAT AND 0335 ASCAT SWATHS.

[HURAKAN]

16SHONDO.85kts-959mb-139S-810E

[Squarethecircle]

Man, this thing is AWESOME.

[HURAKAN]

06/0230 UTC 14.2S 81.1E T4.5/4.5 HONDO -- South Indian Ocean



"HONDO" in Spanish means "Deep," and Hondo is deepening!!!

[Coredesat]

Seems to have entered a bit of a steady state, although there appear to be concentric eyewalls forming.



00Z microwave imagery from TRMM:

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 060623

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/06 AT 0600 UTC :
14.1S / 81.3E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 180 SO: 270 NO: 270
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/06 18 UTC: 14.2S/81.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/02/07 06 UTC: 14.4S/82.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/07 18 UTC: 14.8S/82.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/08 06 UTC: 15.3S/83.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2008/02/08 18 UTC: 16.1S/84.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/09 06 UTC: 17.5S/86.2E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5+

THE SYSTEM IS GOING ON ACHIEVING AN EYE CYCLE (CF TMI AND SSMI DATA OF
0046 AND 0059UTC) AFTER A STOP, INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO RESTART IN
THE NEXT HOURS.

HONDO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARDS, UNDERGOING A
COMPETING STEERING FLOWS (UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 700 AND 500 HPA IN THE
NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN ITS SOUTHWEST), THEN MORE RAPIDLY
TOWARDS A WEAKENESS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GLOBALLY FAVORABLE (WINDSHEAR IS WEAK
UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE , UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND LOW LEVEL
EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS SUSTAINED BY A WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOON FLOW). THE
EXPECTED RESTART IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION, IN A FIRST TIME WITH A
BILDING P
OLARWARDS OUTFLOW UP TO TAU 36, MAIS IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER COLDER
SST DURING THE LAST PART OF THE FORCAST.

[HURAKAN]

06/0830 UTC 14.1S 81.4E T5.0/5.0 HONDO -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 005
WTXS31 PGTW 061500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 81.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 81.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.4S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.6S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.3S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 81.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.

[Squarethecircle]

Looks stronger than 90 knots.

[HURAKAN]

Looking pretty strong right now. Most likely a strong Cat. 3 or in the low end of Cat. 4.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

06/1430 UTC 14.3S 81.8E T6.0/6.0 HONDO -- South Indian Ocean

115 knots!

[P.K.]

Upgraded.

WTIO20 FMEE 061815
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/02/2008 AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/02/2008 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO) 934 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 82.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WHITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN
20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS
OF THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS
OF THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
14.7S / 82.5E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H, VALID 2008/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
15.0S / 83.0E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS ENTERING AGAIN INTO A NEW PHASIS OF QUICK INTENSIFICATION.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON REMAINING ON THIS SLOW SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK.
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD GO ON WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND HONDO IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BEYOND 48 TO 60 HOURS ON COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

[Pedro Fernández]

06/1430 UTC 14.3S 81.8E T6.0/6.0 HONDO -- South Indian Ocean

115 knots!

Too intense to me.............. This means a category 4 !! HONDO doesn't like me so strong.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 120kts-933mb

[HurricaneRobert]

First Category 4 of the year.

[Chacor]

646
WTIO30 FMEE 061838

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/10/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/06 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 82.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 934 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 260 NO: 160
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/07 06 UTC: 14.7S/82.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2008/02/07 18 UTC: 15.0S/83.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2008/02/08 06 UTC: 15.4S/83.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2008/02/08 18 UTC: 15.9S/84.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2008/02/09 06 UTC: 16.8S/85.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/09 18 UTC: 17.9S/86.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0
HONDO IS ENTERING AGAIN INTO A NEW PHASIS OF QUICK INTENSIFICATION.
SYSTEM IS QUASI-STAIONNARY ON THIS LOCATION WITHIN THE RECENT 2 HOURS.
IT IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO KEEP ON REMAINING ON ITS RECENT SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK , UNDERGOING COMPETING STEERING FLOWS (UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AT 700 AND 500 HPA IN THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN
ITS SOUTHWEST), THEN MORE RAPIDLY TOWARDS A WEAKENESS INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHE
AST.
UNDERGOING GLOBALLY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD GO ON WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND HONDO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN BEYOND 48 TO 60 HOURS ON COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.


.

[Chacor]

Lost its eye again. NRL has 120 kts.



Definitely undergoing ERCs.