ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

Interesting enough this season has produced no un-named systems...all TD's have become TS's...


Never saw this before ever frankly...you always see at least one.

[Just Joshing You]

Looking at the satelite, Omar looks primed for some rapid intensification.

[HURAKAN]

Omar is putting to rest the idea that in this part of the Caribbean, this close to South America, storms only come to die.

[Category 5]

Omar is putting to rest the idea that in this part of the Caribbean, this close to South America, storms only come to die.

I think Felix did that well enough.

[WmE]

Omar is putting to rest the idea that in this part of the Caribbean, this close to South America, storms only come to die.

I think Felix did that well enough.

I was about to post that as well lol.

[HURAKAN]

Omar is putting to rest the idea that in this part of the Caribbean, this close to South America, storms only come to die.

I think Felix did that well enough.

I was about to post that as well lol.

Yes, Félix did a very good job.

[gatorcane]

Does anybody see a slight SW drift to Omar as of late or am I seeing the CDO building SW?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[Category 5]

Does anybody see a slight SW drift to Omar as of late or am I seeing the CDO building SW?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Looks maybe south, might just be wobbling, it's kind of meandering a little.

[Derek Ortt]

Omar is putting to rest the idea that in this part of the Caribbean, this close to South America, storms only come to die.

Just confirms that the John Hope Rule was a pile of dung. Isn't this the 3rd or 4th system to develop in the eastern Caribbean this season?

[Category 5]

Omar is putting to rest the idea that in this part of the Caribbean, this close to South America, storms only come to die.

Just confirms that the John Hope Rule was a pile of dung. Isn't this the 3rd or 4th system to develop in the eastern Caribbean this season?

Nope, it's the second. (Gustav)

[Derek Ortt]

forgot about Fay

[Sanibel]

In SE retrograde.

Is this going to miss the ULL or will it pull-out from here?

It didn't really develop in the eastern Caribbean. It got better organized when it went further N into the Caribbean and then turned around. The October change in steering patterns probably nullifies the rule slightly.

[Category 5]

forgot about Fay

Fay formed over Hispaniola, not sure if that would count or not.

[Category 5]

In SE retrograde.

Is this going to miss the ULL or will it pull-out from here?

It didn't really develop in the eastern Caribbean. It got better organized when it went further N into the Caribbean and then turned around. The October change in steering patterns probably nullifies the rule slightly.

But it was declared a TC in the eastern Caribbean.

[Derek Ortt]

Fay did not form over Hispaniola. That was just when the first advisory was issued

[Ed Mahmoud]

Omar is putting to rest the idea that in this part of the Caribbean, this close to South America, storms only come to die.

Just confirms that the John Hope Rule was a pile of dung. Isn't this the 3rd or 4th system to develop in the eastern Caribbean this season?

It isn't a pile of dung. IMHO. It is now mid-October, and Northern South America is no longer much warmer than the Caribbean, so the low level flow from the East that induces high shear and reduces low level convergence is weaker.


The rule works pretty well July through September. The rule, BTW, is if a system isn't already a tropical cyclone by the time it crosses the Lesser Antilles, it won't become one for several days until it reaches the Western Caribbean. The 'not already developed' part means systems that intensify across the Caribbean, like Gilbert, that was already a TC, don't come under the rule. I see that last part ignored frequently by people dismissing the John Hope rule. The late Mr. Hope was a retired NHC met, so I doubt he just pulled that one out of thin air.

[Sanibel]

Where's BVIgal? She looks to have a storm headed her way from this one.

Models in strong consensus across or near Virgin Islands.

[HURAKAN]

Ed, what about César in 1996?

[msbee]

from the Netherlands Antilles Met Office

http://www.meteo.an/

Weather Forecast for the SSS Islands valid until Wednesday midday 12:00 hours October 15, 2008.

!......TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OF THE NETH. ANT.
FOR SABA, ST. EUSTATIUS AND ST. MAARTEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.........!
Weather:
Today: Mostly cloudy with chance of a few local showers.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers or thunderstorms. Showers can be locally heavy and numerous. Street flooding remains a possibility.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with local showers and or thunderstorms. Showers can be locally heavy and numerous. Expect local street flooding with even possible mudslides over hilly terrain.

Winds:
Today: South to Southeasterly, 06 to 12 miles per hour, temporarily gusting in or around showers to 15 to 25 miles per hour.
Tonight: Generally South 12 to 20 miles per hour, temporarily in or around showers gusting to 25 to 30 miles per hour.
Wednesday: Southerly, 15 to 20 miles per hour, gusting in showers to between 30 to 40 miles per hour.

MARINE CONDITIONS:

......A small craft advisory remains in effect for the Caribbean offshore waters and passages, tonight
due to the effects of tropical Storm Omar over the Eastern Caribbean waters.
A small craft warning may become necessary later on Tuesday........
Coastal and open waters: Generally moderate to choppy. Tuesday evening becoming choppy to rough in Southerly swells causing high surf on all South facing beaches.
Winds: Today, force 2 to 4, in showers temporarily 3 to 5 in gusts. Wednesday force 2 to 5, in showers temporarily force 4 to 7.
Seas: 3 to 5 feet, near showers temporarily 6 to 9 feet.

Protected waters: Generally moderate chop. Tuesday afternoon becoming choppy.
Winds: Today force 2 to 4, near showers temporarily 3 to 5 in gusts.
Seas: 1 to 3 feet, during showers 2 to 5 feet.

Temperature:
Forecast high for Tuesday 29 degrees Celsius, 84 degrees Fahrenheit. Wednesday 28 degrees Celsius, 82 degrees Fahrenheit.
Forecast low for Wednesday and Thursday will be 22 degrees Celsius, 72 degrees Fahrenheit.

Synopsis: Tropical depression Fifteen has been ugraded to tropical storm Omar this morning. The center of tropical storm Omar was located near latitude 14.0 degrees North and 69.0 degrees West or about 355 miles South Southwest of San Juan Puerto Rico or 490 miles South Southwest of St. Maarten. Omar is moving now toward the East Southeast near 2 miles per hour. A gradual turn to the East and then to the Northeast is forecast for later today, with a slow increase in speed. Considering the actual motion and development of the storm the federal governement of the Netherlands Antilles will consider to issue later this afternoon a tropical storm watch for the islands of Saba, St. Maarten and St. Eustatius. However, the local community and authorities must continue preparations for the effects of the storm. A forecast for further strengthening of this system within the next 24 hours remains a possibility.
Considering the actual forecast track Omar will now pass East of Puerto Rico and over the US Virgin islands. Because of the proximity of the Storm to the SSS islands at that time. Our islands will experience starting Tuesday night showery weather and thunderstorms with strong possible gusty winds, which could at times reach near gale force from Southerly directions. Street flooding especially over low terrain remains a possibility, mudslides can occur on hilly terrain.
Marine conditions:
Seas over the Caribbean waters are being stirred up by this tropical Storm, so expect swells from the South to affect the local waters during the next few days. High surf will affect all South facing coasts and this will cause significant beach erosion during the coming days. All vessels should be moored properly or positioned in sheltered waters. A small craft advisory remains in effect for all the Caribbean offshore waters and passages, until further notice. A small craft warning may be posted on Tuesday afternoon or early Wednesday as the system progresses to the North.
Atlantic Tropical Weather:
A well defined area of low pressure centered over the Western Caribbean 60 miles Northeast of Nicaragua and Honduras is moving slowly West Northwest with showers and thunderstorms shows signs of development and could become a tropical depression later today.

A weak area of low pressure which was located South Southeast of T.D. NANA was showing yesteday some development but atmospheric conditions are unfavorable for developement over the next few days.

Expect Tuesday night and Wednesday locally heavy rains which could cause local street flooding and possible mudslides.
All interests should monitor this system closely as Omar will start moving slowly Northeastwards later today.

Tropical storm Nana has been downgraded to a tropical depression during the night and will not be mentioned in this forecast anymore.

A low pressure center is near 41W South of 10N moving West near 12 miles per hour. Scattered to moderate showers to isolated strong thunderstorms are from 13/17N between 37/40 W.

A tropical wave is along 54/55W between 14N and 19N moving West near 12 to 18 miles per hour. No significant weather accompanies this wave.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Thursday morning.

The remaining names for this hurricane season are: Paloma, Rent, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.

For more information concerning tropical cyclones please visit our website at http://www.meteo.an

Hazardous Weather Outlook: Southerly swells with high surf action is expected on all South facing beaches starting Tuesday evening until further notice.

Special Features: None.

Volcanic Activity: None.

Outlook until Thursday morning: Mostly cloudy and periods with frequent showers and thunderstorms.
Expect at times gusty winds to near gale force.

Rainfall probability


Tuesday and Wednesday; periods with showers. Wednesday showers may become frequent.

Rainfall potential


Tuesday between 5 and 15 mm. locally more. Wednesday 20 to 50 mm. locally 50 to 75 mm.

[Derek Ortt]

Omar is putting to rest the idea that in this part of the Caribbean, this close to South America, storms only come to die.

Just confirms that the John Hope Rule was a pile of dung. Isn't this the 3rd or 4th system to develop in the eastern Caribbean this season?

It isn't a pile of dung. IMHO. It is now mid-October, and Northern South America is no longer much warmer than the Caribbean, so the low level flow from the East that induces high shear and reduces low level convergence is weaker.


The rule works pretty well July through September. The rule, BTW, is if a system isn't already a tropical cyclone by the time it crosses the Lesser Antilles, it won't become one for several days until it reaches the Western Caribbean. The 'not already developed' part means systems that intensify across the Caribbean, like Gilbert, that was already a TC, don't come under the rule. I see that last part ignored frequently by people dismissing the John Hope rule. The late Mr. Hope was a retired NHC met, so I doubt he just pulled that one out of thin air.

Then explain fay and Gustav. I can name quite a few other examples.

The classification scheme used when he was at NHC has me a little concerned. The number of TDs were quite high. I heard, but cannot confirm, that they used the rule of a single closed isobar to determine a TD then