SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[HURAKAN]

The exes!!!

[Coredesat]

Not much here yet, but the LLC seems to be consolidating.

[Cyclenall]

Is Hondo really starting to re-generate? It's back on the NRL for some reason.

[Crostorm]

16SHONDO.30kts-1000mb

[Coredesat]

Is Hondo really starting to re-generate? It's back on the NRL for some reason.

It is being monitored for regeneration, since it has remained a distinct entity, has increased organization and convective activity (though still minimal), and is drifting slowly to the north-northwest.

[Squarethecircle]

This is kind of disturbing. It just doesn't seem right, for whatever reason.

I mean, it actually looks like it could do it.

That would be amazing.

[HURAKAN]

Slowly coming back!

[P.K.]

FQIO26 FIMP 201300
1:31:08:11:00

SECURITE

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, 20 FEBRUARY 2008 AT 1245UTC .

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.


PART 1 : TTT WARNING OF NEAR GALE

AT 1200 UTC, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE "EX-HONDO" 1002 HPA WAS CENTRED
NEAR THE POINT 18.2 DEGREES SOUTH 61.0 DEGREES EAST.

MOVEMENT WEST NORTH WEST 08KT.

STRONG FORCE CLOCKWISE WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE IN SOUTHERN
SEMI CIRCLE, TOGETHER WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250NM IN THE SOUTH WESTERN
QUADRANT

STROND GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 20 FEBRUARY 2008 AT 1200 UTC

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE "EX-HONDO" 1002 HPA NEAR 18.2' SOUTH 61.0'
EAST. MOVEMENT WEST NORTH WEST 08KT.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 15S 57E, 14S 66E, INTO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
18S 61E CONTINUES ALONG 15S 71E INTO WAVE NEAR 14S 74E CONTINUES
ALONG 12S 81E, 10S 90E

HIGH 1030 HPA NEAR 37S 86E.


PART 3: AREA FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HRS:

8/1: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 20-25 IN EXTREME NORTH WEST, GUSTING
LOCALLY 35-40; EASTERLY 15-20 ELSEWHERE BECOMING EAST NORTH
EASTERLY 15-20. SEA ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH IN NORTH WEST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.


8/2: EASTERLY 15-20 BECOMING EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 20 IN EXTREME
NORTH. SEA ROUGH. VISIBILITY MODERATE.


CENTRAL SOUTH WEST 8/3: AS IN TTT WARNING OF NEAR GALE IN PART ONE.


REMAINDER WEST 8/3: NORTH WESTERLY TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 10 IN
NORTH EAST, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH WESTERLY 15-20 IN WEST; NORTH
EASTERLY 20 IN SOUTH EAST. GUSTING LOCALLY 30-35. SEA ROUGH .
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.


EAST 8/3: WESTERLY 05-10 IN EXTREME NORTH; NORTH EASTERLY 10-20
ELSEWHERE. SEA ROUGH IN SOUTH, MODERATE IN NORTH. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.


8/4: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 15-20 IN SOUTH, SOUTHERLY
05-10 IN NORTH. SEA ROUGH IN SOUTH, MODERATE IN NORTH. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.


8/5: NORTH EASTERLY 05-10 IN EXTREME NORTH; WEST NORTH WESTERLY TO
WESTERLY 05-10 ELSEWHERE, LOCALLY VARIABLE 03. SEA MODERATE.
VISIBILITY GOOD.




8/6:


NORTH EASTERLY 05-10 IN EXTREME NORTH, SOUTHERLY 10 IN EXTREME
SOUTH; WESTERLY 10-15 ELSEWHERE, GUSTING LOCALLY 30-35 IN THUNDERY
SHOWERS. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
EAST. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.


8/7:

WEST OF 50 'EAST: WIND NORTHERLY 20. SEA SLIGHT. VISIBILITY GOOD.

EAST OF 50 'EAST: WIND NORTHERLY 10. SEA SLIGHT. VISIBILITY GOOD.


PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 18.2 S 61.0E EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
WESTWARDS AFTER 24 HOURS.


T.O.O:20/1245UT


END=

[HURAKAN]

20/1430 UTC 17.8S 60.8E T1.0/1.0 HONDO -- South Indian Ocean



Not looking very promising right now. Still, it has moved very far to the north.

[KWT]

Wow it amazing that its come back at all to be honest, but there was always a chance it would because it did keep a very good look circulation as several noted on the Ivan thread, if it could regenerate convection then the circulation was there for it to get going again

[Squarethecircle]

Right now, needs convection and lots of it. The LLCC is looking fine, so if it can spawn convection over the center then it might regenerate.

The shear map on NRL won't extend far enough for me, what kind of environment is Hondo in right now?

[HurricaneRobert]

NRL's track is over eight days old.

[HURAKAN]

Coming back!

[Squarethecircle]

First sign of intense convection right there. If it can maintain it we might see one of the coolest tropical cyclone related things ever.

If it comes back tomorrow, then it will have existed for 17 days, although not all TC days.

Does anyone have environment maps?

[Cyclone1]

*smashes head against wall*

Someone kill this thing already.

[Squarethecircle]

I told you, you're missing out on the best part.

[HURAKAN]

[Coredesat]

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION, PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (HONDO), HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.2S 60.9E, APPROXIMATELY
380 NM NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMA-
GERY DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SCATTEROMETRY WIND
OBSERVATIONS VERIFY THE PRESENCE OF THE LLCC AND REPORT 15 TO 20 KNOT
UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS WEAK DIFFLUENCE
IS PRIMARILY THE RESULT OF NEARBY CONFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONE LOCATED SLIGHTLY EAST OF REGION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF A CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO POOR.

[RattleMan]

908
WTIO30 FMEE 210035

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 35/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/21 AT 0000 UTC :
18.1S / 59.8E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/21 12 UTC: 18.5S/59.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/02/22 00 UTC: 19.3S/58.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/02/22 12 UTC: 20.5S/57.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 21.6S/56.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 23.3S/55.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 26.1S/52.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF HONDO HAS CAME BACK NEAR MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS
..
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER WELL DEFINED. MAIN THUNDERSTROM
ACTIVITY IS PRESENT MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT FOR THE MOMENT.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS TODAY.
DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT, STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THIS RESIDUAL
VORTEX COULD REACH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO TAU 72.

ALTOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AND IS NOT FORECASTED TO RE-INTENSIFY
(MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 1005HPA), IT SHOULD
GENERATE VERY DISTURBED WEATHER OVER MAURITIUS ON THE 22 AND REUNION
ISLAND THE 23 (DEGRADATION THE NIGHT BEFORE).

AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

[Crostorm]