ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[kurtpage]

Storm EDOUARD1: Observed by AF #308
Storm #05 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #05: 03
Date/Time of Recon Report: August 04, 2008 20:44:30 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 28 ° 12 ' N 091 ° 30 ' W (28.20° N 91.50° W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of N/A Millibars: 1427 Meters (Normal: N/A Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 34 Knots (39.1 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 015 Nautical Miles (17.25 miles) From Center At Bearing 228°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 039 Knots (44.85 MPH) From 307°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 033 Nautical Miles (37.95 Miles) From Center At Bearing 228°
Minimum Pressure: 999 Millibars (29.499 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 16°C (60.8°F) / 1560 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 20°C (68°F) / 1505 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 16°C (60.8°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 2 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 47 KT NW Quadrant at 19:08:30 Z
2: RADAR INDICATES CIRCULAR BANDING CONSISTENT WITH FIX ON EAST SIDE, 25 PERCENT COMPLETE.

[terrapintransit]

RADAR INDICATES CIRCULAR BANDING CONSISTENT WITH FIX ON EAST SIDE, 25 PERCENT COMPLETE.[/b]

That's interesting. Seems it's getting better organized.

"Seems"?? It is!!

[JonathanBelles]

Very interesting remark via the VDM....Could be have an eyewall by tonight?

[Cape Verde]

Nothing has changed to make anything east of Galvelston the likely landfall. As much as we give credit to the NHC, Dolly did come ashore north of the CENTER of the forecast track, but well within the cone. The same could be true with Edouard, but again, nothing has changed.

If you had to place a bet, Galveston is still the bullseye. Beaumont won't escape the storm and may face worse than say, Wharton, on the drier side of the storm. All of southeast Texas is in for a bit of a rough ride in the next 24 hours.

[WmE]

RADAR INDICATES CIRCULAR BANDING CONSISTENT WITH FIX ON EAST SIDE, 25 PERCENT COMPLETE.[/b]

That's interesting. Seems it's getting better organized.

"Seems"?? It is!!

I mean the inner core.

[Nimbus]

No surprises with this storm, and other than the dry air debate there is not much extra information here on strom2k that has not been covered by the advisories.

Next to flooding, the major inconvenience will be power outages. If the inflow continues to be restricted by land, you might get lucky and only see TS strength winds on the north side of the system.

You will still have power outages, but if you freeze a couple gallons of water ahead of time you won't lose any food for a couple days till they can get the power lines back up.

Hurricane force winds are a different story, it can take over a week to get the AC and fridge back. Warm budweiser and 95 degree heat for a week will definately mess with your head.

[Wx_Warrior]

Remember, Eddie is a east to west mover...Houston will get north and east stuff.

[Deputy Van Halen]

Given the projected track, the strongest winds would be coming from the east, right? I have only one window on my house without an operational storm shutter, and it faces south. The storm shutter on that window won't close because a bunch of vines have grown and wrapped themselves around everything in site. But I assume the shutter as it is would give some protection from flying branches, and hopefully the winds from the south won't be strong enough to shatter the window.

[americanrebel]

This is just in my opinion, and there is no scientific evidence behind it, it is not backed by any organization at all.

I think that Edouard will be definitely be a Hurricane by landfall, due to the fact that it is still moving mostly W, and with the shore line the further West in Louisiana is actually further N, leaving him having more water to actually get energy from. With the signs of this actually getting a fully encircled LLC (eye wall) signaling that the system is trying to intensify. The area Eduoard is moving into is a little bit warmer SSTs, and has a little deeper water allowing it to just suck up the energy out there and moving slow like he is. I could definitely see this being a Hurricane with winds around 100 MPH by landfall. Once again this is not an official prediction, just my own personal prediction.

[oyster_reef]

Remember, Eddie is a east to west mover...Houston will get north and east stuff.

the north stuff will be minimal. has to come in from the south, swing high, then back down to you. maybe 15-20 tops north wind.

[KWT]

Hmmm that vortex is interesting in that it does hint that an eyewall may try to be setting up, which normally does start to occur between 45-50kts in many systems.

The other noteable thing is pressure is still dropping as well it seems.

Therefore does look like it strengthening, NHC really are nailing this storm at the present moment.

[RL3AO]

Convection is increasing pretty quickly.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=multiple&itype=ir

[cycloneye]

[terrapintransit]

Convection is increasing pretty quickly.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=multiple&itype=ir

The center is really starting to explode

[Stormcenter]

No offense ( I am not a meteorologist..amateur or professional..I am just a librarian and a historian and not even close to being as smart as most of you), but the NHC has gotten right with Dolly and did really doggone well last year. I think, and this is my opinion, that I am going to stick with the NHC. It is like a great pair of jeans or good running shoes. It just feels better.

The NHC did not do to well with systems in the GoM to well last year, only one storm needs to be named to tell you that, and that is Humberto. So the NHC is a great source but for systems that form and stay close to land it is all really a guessing game.

The NHC did not technically get it right with Dolly. They were very close but it wasn't a bull's eye.

[Rouster]

What scares me just a bit about this storm is that it's not moving anywhere fast. The last few hours it seems to be pretty much just drifting to the W.
Luckily, I just don't think the overall setup is there for this thing to really ramp up. But, it could get to Hurricane strength before landfall and with a slow moving storm there could be a whole lot of rain and tornadoes involved as well.

[HouTXmetro]

WTH is wrong with the NOAA satellites? An image is blacked out screwing up the loop.

[LaBreeze]

We had one feeder band come through with heavy gusts and only a few sprinkles. Now the sun is out and the wind has died down completely. Not a leaf moving - very, very still.

[KWT]

Yep deep convection once again bursting over the center but its still not all that organised in terms of the convective pattern looking at cycloneye's image.

[vbhoutex]

Remember, Eddie is a east to west mover...Houston will get north and east stuff.

And South as it move by us to the South of the city presuming it takes the currently predicted track.