ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[AL Chili Pepper]

GFDL
====================================================

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L
INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 18.8 79.2 300./ 8.9
6 19.2 80.1 293./ 9.2
12 19.9 80.9 313./10.1
18 20.9 82.0 311./14.5
24 21.8 83.0 312./12.6
30 22.5 83.8 312./10.0
36 23.5 84.7 319./13.4
42 24.5 85.7 316./13.2
48 25.4 86.5 317./11.9
54 26.5 87.5 316./14.1
60 27.4 88.7 308./13.6
66 28.5 89.7 317./14.1
72 29.6 90.9 313./15.2
78 30.5 91.9 314./12.8
84 31.4 92.8 314./11.5
90 32.3 93.5 323./10.5
96 33.0 94.0 326./ 8.8
102 33.5 94.1 347./ 4.7
108 33.8 94.1 353./ 3.5
114 34.2 94.2 344./ 3.2
120 34.0 94.2 180./ 1.0
126 33.8 93.7 116./ 5.1

[Viper54r]

gfdl still southeast la a shade west

sorry typed soutwest incorrectly

What do you mean "still" SW LA?

[Viper54r]

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L
INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 18.8 79.2 300./ 8.9
6 19.2 80.1 293./ 9.2
12 19.9 80.9 313./10.1
18 20.9 82.0 311./14.5
24 21.8 83.0 312./12.6
30 22.5 83.8 312./10.0
36 23.5 84.7 319./13.4
42 24.5 85.7 316./13.2
48 25.4 86.5 317./11.9
54 26.5 87.5 316./14.1
60 27.4 88.7 308./13.6
66 28.5 89.7 317./14.1
72 29.6 90.9 313./15.2
78 30.5 91.9 314./12.8
84 31.4 92.8 314./11.5
90 32.3 93.5 323./10.5
96 33.0 94.0 326./ 8.8
102 33.5 94.1 347./ 4.7
108 33.8 94.1 353./ 3.5
114 34.2 94.2 344./ 3.2
120 34.0 94.2 180./ 1.0
126 33.8 93.7 116./ 5.1

Which model is this? I apologize for the ignorance.

[dwg71]

hwrf still central la, since no change in gfs, pretty much expected. it did lose the back up before coast feature.

[lonelymike]

GFDL I think

[Viper54r]

hwrf still central la, since no change in gfs, pretty much expected. it did lose the back up before coast feature.

You mean it longer shoots in towards south Texas?

[AL Chili Pepper]

Which model is this? I apologize for the ignorance.

My bad...that's GFDL.

[BigB0882]

I was really confused by the "still southwest" comment! LOL! Thanks for clarifying and keeping us updated.

[dwg71]

hwrf still central la, since no change in gfs, pretty much expected. it did lose the back up before coast feature.

You mean it longer shoots in towards south Texas?

south texas?? no inland central la and moves slightly west inland

[Viper54r]

Do you have a link to the new HWRF?

[Stratosphere747]

HWRF 78hrs -


126hrs -

[BigB0882]

Am I seeing the HWRF correctly? It stalls just before landfall on the central LA coast and then goes west and then southwest? What factors would cause a southward movement other than a bobble? What would cause a longterm southwestward movement?

[CrazyC83]

If that HWRF verifies, land interests would catch a lucky break due to weakening, but it would be apocalyptic to offshore oil.

[Stratosphere747]

It takes it inland near Cameron and over through the Golden Triangle before dipping south across High Island and off of Galveston ending up at that last image.

Just a model run....

[haml8]

preface: I don't know if this is the right place for this question so here it goes..

WXman57, AFM or Derek or any other met for that case, can you please post a link or picutre of the steering layer that is likley in play for Gustav please?

[cycloneye]

Is the first time that SHIP forecasts a cat 3 for Gustav.

WHXX01 KWBC 300030
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0030 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV (AL072008) 20080830 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080830 0000 080830 1200 080831 0000 080831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 80.0W 20.6N 82.5W 21.8N 84.6W 22.9N 86.3W
BAMD 19.2N 80.0W 20.5N 82.0W 22.1N 84.1W 23.6N 86.0W
BAMM 19.2N 80.0W 20.3N 82.2W 21.5N 84.1W 22.9N 85.8W
LBAR 19.2N 80.0W 20.6N 81.8W 22.3N 83.8W 24.1N 85.6W
SHIP 70KTS 83KTS 92KTS 98KTS
DSHP 70KTS 83KTS 81KTS 95KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080901 0000 080902 0000 080903 0000 080904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 87.4W 27.7N 89.7W 31.0N 92.5W 31.6N 95.0W
BAMD 25.1N 87.8W 28.3N 91.2W 30.8N 93.0W 31.3N 93.8W
BAMM 24.3N 87.3W 27.7N 90.2W 30.4N 92.1W 31.0N 93.3W
LBAR 25.8N 87.0W 28.4N 89.7W 29.9N 91.6W 31.7N 93.9W
SHIP 103KTS 100KTS 83KTS 65KTS
DSHP 99KTS 96KTS 50KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 80.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.3N LONM12 = 78.4W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 77.0W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 975MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 120NM

[dwg71]

east shift with bamm suite, right on central la, like "most" everybody else.

[ROCK]

east shift with bamm suite, right on central la, like "most" everybody else.

not by much...and the BAMM suite is worthless this far out. Personally, I would stick with the the more reliable models......

[dwg71]

yes useless but all but ukmet is clustered near central la, see if holds.

[cycloneye]

SHIP 00:00 UTC forecast of shear does not look prohibitive.

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      GUSTAV  AL072008  08/30/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    70    77    83    88    92    98   103   104   100    91    83    74    65
V (KT) LAND       70    77    83    88    81    95    99   100    96    87    50    34    29
V (KT) LGE mod    70    77    82    87    91    94    97    95    90    84    50    34    29

SHEAR (KTS)       11    14    10    11    13    12    16    11    20    20    18    21    19
SHEAR DIR        220   241   243   204   199   187   197   221   233   259   253   266   261
SST (C)         29.6  29.7  29.8  29.8  29.8  29.7  29.5  29.2  29.0  28.9  28.3  27.5  27.2
POT. INT. (KT)   162   164   166   167   167   165   161   155   151   149   140   127   122
ADJ. POT. INT.   153   156   158   157   157   153   144   135   130   128   117   104    99
200 MB T (C)   -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.1 -50.4 -49.4 -50.2 -49.4 -50.1 -50.2
TH_E DEV (C)      13    12    11    12    12    10    10     7     8     4     7     1     4
700-500 MB RH     70    67    68    65    65    60    60    58    56    56    55    63    62
GFS VTEX (KT)     18    19    20    20    19    20    21    23    23    22    20    19    17
850 MB ENV VOR    72    53    56    65    70    74    75    55    36     2    14    19    -4
200 MB DIV        63    37    34    40    27    53    55    44    49    14    43     9    -1
LAND (KM)        210   218   153   102   -11   243   399   211    91    24  -125  -203  -240
LAT (DEG N)     19.2  20.0  20.7  21.5  22.3  24.1  25.8  27.2  28.3  29.5  30.9  31.6  31.9
LONG(DEG W)     80.0  80.9  81.8  82.8  83.7  85.8  87.7  89.2  90.6  91.8  93.0  93.7  94.1
STM SPEED (KT)    10    11    12    12    13    13    11     9     8     8     7     3     2
HEAT CONTENT     114   102   128   131    48   126    37    31    23     1  9999  9999  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/  8      CX,CY:  -6/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  55            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  589  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:   9.5 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          2.   4.   7.   8.  11.  11.  10.   7.   5.   3.   0.  -4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  PERSISTENCE            3.   4.   5.   5.   6.   6.   5.   5.   3.   2.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8. -10. -11. -12.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   0.   1.   2.   3.   3.   2.   0.  -1.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       6.  11.  16.  19.  25.  29.  31.  29.  23.  15.   6.  -4.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   1.   0.   0.   1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   0.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      7.  13.  18.  22.  28.  33.  34.  30.  21.  13.   4.  -5.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008     GUSTAV 08/30/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  15.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  11.9 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  40.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.5
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  86.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  76.8 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   8.8 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 104.6 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    43% is   3.5 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    29% is   3.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    24% is   6.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008     GUSTAV 08/30/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY