TC Bertha

[Aric Dunn]

hey im a football

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is a eye in the 85h! A eye don't form with out a well organized LLC, so that is just the way it is. As for the quickscat it is having problems because of the fast westward movement of the cyclone. This is going to be my last post on the topic doe's this have a LLC or not, because it doe's end of discussion.

[Thunder44]

Wow...tonights QS pass is a tad off it's rocker or something!

The early morning pass was not correct in terms of location as it was discussed at this thread by the pro mets.

But at least it showed a closed LLC!

This is this morning's image:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

[MiamiensisWx]

I believe QuikSCAT should not be utilized as the sole method and standard for detecting a LLC associated with a well developed TC. TRMM scans and NRL data clearly indicate a closed low level circulation.

[Derek Ortt]

I've been noticing the system elongating SW to NE, most notibly on microwave. Also, it appears dry air is being ingested into the system.

Mike,

I dont see the elongation of the core region

I do see the outflow becoming slight better defined.

That siad, the circulation is not as organized as we all thought based upon the QS pass

[dixiebreeze]

Does anyone think Recon might move up its surveillance schedule to Monday instead of Tuesday? My hunch is yes.

[Derek Ortt]

There is a eye in the 85h! A eye don't form with out a well organized LLC, so that is just the way it is. As for the quickscat it is having problems because of the fast westward movement of the cyclone. This is going to be my last post on the topic doe's this have a LLC or not, because it doe's end of discussion.

uh Matt,

that could have been a mid level feature on the microwave

[cycloneye]

Almost a hurricane!

06/2345 UTC 18.8N 47.9W T3.5/3.5 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[deltadog03]

Calm down matt....its cool...lol Well, I still think its aparent that this cyclone is tilted quite a bit. IMO most might be tracking the big ball of convection...I still think the LLC is a bit dissplaced to the SW....not much, but def. tilted.

[cheezyWXguy]

I've been noticing the system elongating SW to NE, most notibly on microwave. Also, it appears dry air is being ingested into the system.

Mike,

I dont see the elongation of the core region

I do see the outflow becoming slight better defined.

That siad, the circulation is not as organized as we all thought based upon the QS pass

It cant be right though...we have an eye forming in a 50kt (possibly higher) TS. There is no possible way that the system could have opened up. I do, though, agree with you that I no longer see elongation of the core. It looked that way earlier today with the brief encounter with shear, but I do not see that any longer.

[Derek Ortt]

recon will not be out earlier than Tuesday

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2008 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 18:19:51 N Lon : 47:45:45 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 995.8mb/ 55.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.5 3.5 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.8mb

Center Temp : -59.4C Cloud Region Temp : -59.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.62 ARC in BLACK

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[dixiebreeze]

Almost a hurricane!

06/2345 UTC 18.8N 47.9W T3.5/3.5 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Dvorak Current Intensity Chart

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

[gatorcane]

Note: big balls of convection can quickly go poof. We have seen that countless times.

If the system is not as organized as pro mets are indicating, it would not surprise me to see it lose convection over the next 6-12 hours before rebuilding more convection neary and over the actual center.

[cycloneye]

55 kts,994 mbs per ATCF:

AL, 02, 2008070700, , BEST, 0, 184N, 481W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA,

[Derek Ortt]

Almost a hurricane!

06/2345 UTC 18.8N 47.9W T3.5/3.5 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

there is data (albiet of suspect quality) to suggest that this is not close to hurricane

[dixiebreeze]

I think there is no doubt that Bertha will be the first 'cane of '08 in the Atlantic Basin.

[Blown Away]

I've been noticing the system elongating SW to NE, most notibly on microwave. Also, it appears dry air is being ingested into the system.

Mike,
I dont see the elongation of the core region
I do see the outflow becoming slight better defined.
That siad, the circulation is not as organized as we all thought based upon the QS pass

Question, I can't assume the LLC is well defined based on

[Nimbus]

She is still stacking herself apparantly, and yes aric I think the punter is going to miss.

[Blown Away]

Almost a hurricane!
06/2345 UTC 18.8N 47.9W T3.5/3.5 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

How do they get West motion if the 5pm position was 18.1N?