Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Forget the NOGAPS ivanhater, there are no other models that bring it that way -- at least the ones we should be paying attention to.

I just don't see a panhandle hit on this one. It's likely to track well to the SE of you which should bring in some NNW winds for your area.....and some dryer air from the north.

WV loop analysis shows the small likelyhood that it could actually make it that far NW.

Ill forget it when she makes the turn, until then Ill be watching

[AL Chili Pepper]

I don't think the models are behaving that much differently than normal, but because of the approach of this storm a lot more coastline is in the spread. Overall, they're in pretty good agreement.

[cheezyWXguy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Forget the NOGAPS ivanhater, there are no other models that bring it that way -- at least the ones we should be paying attention to.

I just don't see a panhandle hit on this one. It's likely to track well to the SE of you which should bring in some NNW winds for your area.....and some dryer air from the north. You'll probably see a reduction in POPS as dry air subsidence reduces afternoon convection at least until FAY passes well to the SE.

WV loop analysis shows the small likelyhood that it could actually make it that far NW.

Well, the only models supporting your prediction of a sw florida hit are gfdl, which i dont believe initializes right and the incredible reliable NAM. Current consensus would suggest a landfall in the eastern part of the florida panhandle or northern tampa bay.

[Dean4Storms]

Right now everyone from P'Cola to the Keys should watch this one closely. The Panhandle certainly is not out of the woods with this storm yet.

[NDG]

00z GFDL

TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.2 75.9 270./13.0
6 19.5 76.7 291./ 8.0
12 20.4 77.7 312./12.9
18 21.5 78.6 320./14.6
24 22.6 79.8 312./15.3
30 23.2 81.0 298./12.3
36 23.9 81.5 325./ 8.2
42 24.9 81.6 352./ 9.5
48 25.7 81.7 351./ 8.6
54 26.9 81.3 20./12.8
60 28.1 81.0 13./12.0
66 29.2 80.4 29./11.9
72 30.1 79.9 29./ 9.9
78 31.0 79.6 22./ 9.7
84 31.9 79.1 24./10.2
90 32.8 78.8 20./ 9.0
96 33.8 78.7 8./10.2
102 34.4 78.8 347./ 5.6
108 35.2 78.9 352./ 9.0
114 36.0 79.0 358./ 7.0
120 36.6 78.9 3./ 6.7
126 37.4 79.1 351./ 8.3

[gatorcane]

I agree but I'll quote CLIMO again --- although I never base a forecast just on CLIMO....

not one storm in the month of August within 65 NM of where FAY is located currently has effected the Panhandle in 150 years of storm tracking.

Here is the link to check it out.
http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

[Ivanhater]

I just find it funny people dismiss when models dont show their area, Im not dismissing the other models, just throwing out the other options...but carry on

[AtlanticWind]

TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.2 75.9 270./13.0
6 19.5 76.7 291./ 8.0
12 20.4 77.7 312./12.9
18 21.5 78.6 320./14.6
24 22.6 79.8 312./15.3
30 23.2 81.0 298./12.3
36 23.9 81.5 325./ 8.2
42 24.9 81.6 352./ 9.5
48 25.7 81.7 351./ 8.6
54 26.9 81.3 20./12.8
60 28.1 81.0 13./12.0
66 29.2 80.4 29./11.9
72 30.1 79.9 29./ 9.9
78 31.0 79.6 22./ 9.7
84 31.9 79.1 24./10.2
90 32.8 78.8 20./ 9.0
96 33.8 78.7 8./10.2
102 34.4 78.8 347./ 5.6
108 35.2 78.9 352./ 9.0
114 36.0 79.0 358./ 7.0
120 36.6 78.9 3./ 6.7
126 37.4 79.1 351./ 8.3

Is this GFDL?

[boca]

Which model is that

[NDG]

Yes, and it has shifted east once again, up the middle of the FL Peninsula, right bias once again.

[weatherSnoop]

Ivan, I am not discounting other models...I welcome any shift that is more than 5 blocks from my house. All of Florida needs to be watching: handle, tip and coast to coast

[Jason_B]

:uarrow:

I agree but I'll quote CLIMO again --- although I never base a forecast just on CLIMO....

not one storm in the month of August within 65 NM of where FAY is located currently has effected the Panhandle in 150 years of storm tracking.

Here is the link to check it out.
http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

I agree this won't get to the panhandle, but I must say if I've learned anything just within the last 5 years of tracking storms always put climo on the back burner. Interesting to look at, but It's really useless when trying to use it to forecast a present storm.

[NDG]

Yes, and it has shifted east once again, up the middle of the FL Peninsula, right bias once again.

Actually it makes landfall near Marco Island then moves it NE towards Orlando/Cape Canaveral

[DESTRUCTION5]

I just find it funny people dismiss when models dont show their area, Im not dismissing the other models, just throwing out the other options...but carry on

this mean ur ignorin the canadian? the east outlier?

[Ivanhater]

I just find it funny people dismiss when models dont show their area, Im not dismissing the other models, just throwing out the other options...but carry on

this mean ur ignorin the canadian? the east outlier?

Nope, could happen

[wxwonder12]

What is the most reliable model actually or does it just depend storm to storm?

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The WV loop analysis tells all. How could Fay make it much more west of the FL West Coast? Unless the weakness suddenly disappears over the Northern GOM and FL I just don't see it. I have to be honest here. The FL peninsula continues to be the target, namely South Florida first -- that follows from my guidance from over 3+ day ago (just check back for my posts) --- I did think Fay would have traversed north of the Greater Antilles and enter the Bahamas as a Hurricane but that thankfully never panned out.

.

[Dean4Storms]

I just find it funny people dismiss when models dont show their area, Im not dismissing the other models, just throwing out the other options...but carry on

this mean ur ignorin the canadian? the east outlier?

Yes I'm ignoring this run of the Candian, it initializes Fay over eastern Cuba.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I just find it funny people dismiss when models dont show their area, Im not dismissing the other models, just throwing out the other options...but carry on

this mean ur ignorin the canadian? the east outlier?

Yes I'm ignoring this run of the Candian, it initializes Fay over eastern Cuba.

GFDL now too?

[Bocadude85]

anywhere from marco island to just north of tampa seems to be the target area..