ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF HAITI TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

Found the first part very interesting

[ROCK]

It appears to me that Gustav will very likely stay south of Cuba as it treks across the NW Caribbean. The trough to its north is about to leave Gustav behind with strong ridging developing in the trough's wake. I see no way but a turn to the west before it can get to the latitude. I would fully expect the NHC forecast to continue trending left with time.

Agreed. Might not reach Haiti before the west turn, too. I think we're about to see a significant south/west track shift from NHC. They can't stick with that track straight across the whole length of Cuba right into the ridge for much longer.

Latest track is out...its the AFM track outlines earlier today. Clipping Haiti...skirting the southern coast of Cuba and then crossing the western end of Cuba into the GoM.

Gosh...now I agree with the NHC. That stinks.

AFM, you are the man!!! and a Pearland man at that. ....good job...now lets see if it holds...

[Just Joshing You]

SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0258.shtml

[Ivanhater]

AFM OR WXMAN...any good news, ya'll changing your track thoughts tonight

[Ed Mahmoud]

Notice Mr. Franklin referred to the 'eye' and the 'eyewall'.


So, now I guess for almost but not quite hurricane TSs, they can have eyes.

[wxman57]

Latest track is out...its the AFM track outlines earlier today. Clipping Haiti...skirting the southern coast of Cuba and then crossing the western end of Cuba into the GoM.

Gosh...now I agree with the NHC. That stinks.

I see. Our track is on the other side of the Isle of Pines crossing western Cuba and further into the Gulf than NHC at day 5. I'm thinking we might have to nudge our track a hair further west over the next few days. Won't really know when Gustav will make the northerly turn until Friday, I guess. Long week ahead. Time for bed. 4am alarm set.

[JonathanBelles]

Ill take any good news....other than school is canceled. This storm looks like it is a no good case scenario.

[dwg71]

imo this look ominous for cen to east gulf coast , amateur opinion has been pcb, fl as upper cat 3

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Air Force Met]

AFM OR WXMAN...any good news, ya'll changing your track thoughts tonight

Nope. Track looks good now to me. I think there will be a serious problem in the GoM over the weekend. Where...it is too early to say.

[Sanibel]

Notice Mr. Franklin referred to the 'eye' and the 'eyewall'.


So, now I guess for almost but not quite hurricane TSs, they can have eyes.

Thank you Ed. I've seen many people in here lecture on how tropical storms can't have eyes or eyewalls.

[mattpetre]

Personal forecast disclaimer. Not professional or those of Storm 2k or anyone worth listening to.

Gustav is bound to make some very strange turns as ex-Fay pulls out of the SE CONUS. I believe we will see ridging build in models pointing to S. TX or MX and then as a weakness does get stronger models bending back to East LA to Pensacola. I think the real key to intensity is going to be about the fact that ridges will abound for a few days, this storm has a great chance of becoming very big. Just my .02.

[vbhoutex]

SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.

ALWAYS post links when you post something such as this!!! You must identify the source. If this is your own thinking then please post more than something like this-give us your justification for your thoughts, if they are your own.

Edit: Having searched myself I now know that it comes from the latest NHC discussion. The request I made above is a policy of STORM2K. EVERYONE needs to adhere to this policy please.

[Just Joshing You]

SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.

ALWAYS post links when you post something such as this!!! You must identify the source. If this is your own thinking then please post more than something like this-give us your justification for your thoughts, if they are your own.

It came directly from the NHC advisory that everyone was quoting from...

[boca]

Hey Ed what happens if Gustav makes it to Texas, the whole board will be serving you some crow.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102568

[MGC]

Sure does seem like a lot of S2K members from Louisiana and the central GOM coast are here tonight. I guess we are still paranoid three years later and I can't blame us because I am too. I thought I had it under control but after Katrina that all changed. I will try not to panic till I am in the three day cone. Until then I'll just be overly anxious about Gustav. I am not likeing what I'm seeing tonight with Gustav's IR appearance on satellite. Looks to be becoming better organized and it appears to be an eye developing. I'm thinking that Gus will likely miss or just graze Hati. I'm going with a south of Cuba track, close to the coast. If Gus does indeed track in such a mannor he will be transversing some of the highest ocean heat content in the Caribbean. Shear should be light the next several days. As a result, I would not be surprised if Gustav becomes a major hurricane in the next couple of days. Personally, I'd rather see Gustav track along the entire lenght of Cuba and lose his inner core. Of course Hurricane Fredrick kinda did the same and once he moved off Cuba got his act together........MGC

Of course the above is MGC opinion and not an official forecast.

[lbvbl]

What prevents this storm from taking a more northernly track? And what can change this?

[CrazyC83]

Significant strengthening? Maybe a major hurricane before Haiti?

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

Looking at this loop Gustav looks like it is already slowing way down maybe even stalling , I wonder if this would mean a change in the models down the road?

[tolakram]

[Wx_Warrior]

Can someone post a link to AFM's forecast? Looked everywhere.