ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[AL Chili Pepper]

New EURO central la

whether this hits LA or not, I don't think I've ever seen so many models hang on to such a small stretch of coast in the extended forecast period. And the NHC stated that there was a high degree of uncertainty in the long range at that.

[canetracker]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png
Early Cycle Track Guidance for Gustav @ 06UTC

[sphelps8681]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png
Early Cycle Track Guidance for Gustav @ 06UTC

Looks like it recurves after landfall toward SE Texas. Does not look it is on shore long before recurve. Will Gustav remain in Hurricane strength going into SE Texas?

[Viper54r]

Has the 06 GFDL come out yet?

[canetracker]

Has the 06 GFDL come out yet?

Not yet. Another 2 hours.
GFS will start coming out shortly.

[Nimbus]

The ridging at landfall really slows the forward motion and prolongs landfall.

Rainfall totals are going to astronomical east of the center.

[Viper54r]

Can you please explain to me what the early-track guidance is? That isn't a final product of 06Z model runs, is it?

I apologize for the ignorance.

[sphelps8681]

The ridging at landfall really slows the forward motion and prolongs landfall.

Rainfall totals are going to astronomical east of the center.

That's not going to good at all for NO.

[Stormcenter]

The ridging at landfall really slows the forward motion and prolongs landfall.

Rainfall totals are going to astronomical east of the center.

That's not going to good at all for NO.

I find these predicted slow downs in the past sometimes
never materialize.

[canetracker]

66hr:

850 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_85v_066l.gif
500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_066l.gif

[HCSD]

Looks like GFS is Central LA to South West LA.

[canetracker]

GFS @ 72 hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_072l.gif
78 hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_078l.gif

loop thus far:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

[Thunder44]

Just want to point out this out.The 0z GFDL is farthest to the right with the track. But it seems to the only one that has it as a major hurricane in the NW Carribean now.

[dwg71]

06 gfdl moved west in line with nhc of central la hit.

[lonelymike]

gfdl landfall is at 30.2 92.7

[freeroamnola]

06 gfdl moved west in line with nhc of central la hit.

Wondering as I read and I really don't understand much, but given the strength and landfall point does anyone know if Alexandria, LA will feel effects from this system? If so what to expect.

[attallaman]

The NOLA TV affilliates are on live this morning covering this event, mandatory evacuations have already begun in some areas surrounding NOLA although no mandatory evacuation order has been issued for NOLA just yet. The MET on WWL TV-4 just cautiously mentioned a while ago that there might have to be a shift in the track of Gustav to the east during the next NHC advisory.

[perk]

The NOLA TV affilliates are on live this morning covering this event, mandatory evacuations have already begun in some areas surrounding NOLA although no mandatory evacuation order has been issued for NOLA just yet. The MET on WWL TV-4 just cautiously mentioned a while ago that there might have to be a shift in the track of Gustav to the east during the next NHC advisory.

Why the models have'nt shifted east.

[dwg71]

The NOLA TV affilliates are on live this morning covering this event, mandatory evacuations have already begun in some areas surrounding NOLA although no mandatory evacuation order has been issued for NOLA just yet. The MET on WWL TV-4 just cautiously mentioned a while ago that there might have to be a shift in the track of Gustav to the east during the next NHC advisory.

Why the models have'nt shifted east.

Ran before current 6 hour NNW (roughly) motion began.

[Pearl River]

It looks like it will past east of the next forecast point unless it jogs back to the west soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

And, no this is not -removed-, because if you look at my avatar, Slidell does not need a repeat of 3 years ago.