ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Evil Jeremy]

Remember, the clipper is not a forecasting model, it is just a climatology model.

[MiamiensisWx]

Brief OT note: Has the eclipse commenced? I believe it is allotted for mid-August, so why is the data currently down?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn.jpg

All GOES-12 (?) data has been unavailable as of 00Z.

[Cape Verde]

Great, I'm starting to think that Houston won't get much rain at all.

Check back in this time tomorrow. If you haven't gotten at least two inches, and perhaps as high as eight, I'll eat my snorkel or at least gnaw on it.

[RL3AO]

Brief OT note: Has the eclipse commenced?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn.jpg

No. It doesn't start until August 12 or something at its during the middle of the night.

[Bailey1777]

To much speculation on here. Nothing is changing much at sll. NHC track and intensity are very close and should remain that way.

[Annie Oakley]

This is tortuous waiting for a landfall here in Texas but we want you to know how much we appreciate all the knowledge and education form the professionals and more learned weatherbuffs among you. We are monitoring along with you and your input on this site is giving us much confidence in how to prepare. Keep up the great work S2K. Thanks!

[sgr4000]

Do the shallower waters around Eduardo inhibit strengthening to a point or does that apply to major hurricanes? I remember when Rita came through one of the mets were saying that once it entered the shallower waters it would weaken or not intensify...can't remember which. Sorry for the newbie question.

[Tireman4]

Dr Neil Frank, (whom I trust like my good Bridgestone tires) said this

Doc said the eye is reforming east, but track has not changed. Not good news as it indicates possible strengthening, and even more time over water.

Gene chimed in that it looks like the system is taking a pause (slowing down).


This was taken from another board. Just FYI.

I ahte to disagree with a pro, since I haven't had to take the rigerous courses yet, but I don't see how it looks to be reforming east of the convection, when you can clearly see it all moving as a whole.

Then you sir, have more guts than I do. My hat is off to you. I cannot even come close to matching his knowledge in his field. ( or mine....New Deal...working a PhD in history..he probably knows more than I do) That would be like me discounting ( I am not flaming you or calling you out) William Leuchtenburg, who is a giant in New Deal history. I just dont have those guts, not yet...LOL. I just cannot discount his years at the NHC.

[RL3AO]

Do the shallower waters around Eduardo inhibit strengthening to a point or does that apply to major hurricanes? I remember when Rita came through one of the mets were saying that once it entered the shallower waters it would weaken or not intensify...can't remember which. Sorry for the newbie question.

It won't make much of an impact with a weaker storm like Eddie.

[Shockwave]

From that radar view, too me, it doesn't even look like it's moving. But at the end of the frame, I honestly think I see a LITTLE NE jog. I already hate this system.

Invest Dolly was MUCH more fustrating than this...

True, but I didn't follow Dolly as closely as I have this one.

[cycloneye]

Goes-12 is working.

[KatDaddy]

The beautiful thing about radar is it does lie. Whether a a wobble or reformation it brings more of a chance missing the Houston-Galveston area.

[Evil Jeremy]

New advisory is in!

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.

EDOUARD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE COASTLINE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB

[Aric Dunn]

reformation bad!!!!

[HouTXmetro]

If the NHC fixed it NE I guess most are right.. But I looked at the radar over and over and didn't see it.

Edit, the NHC did say refomation... changes the game? LA landfall?

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

This is tortuous waiting for a landfall here in Texas

Think of how it was here in South Florida waiting for Francis 2004 to come through.

We had spent the night of sept 3rd at my mother in laws expecting a cane in the AM. It took all of that day, then the next for her to finally come ashore. 48 hours late! Mind you the squalls knocked out power in the afternoon of the third so 36 of those hours were without power or AC.

[vaffie]

With the bright reds that are showing up in what can now only be called a CDO, I would not be surprised if the next recon flight finds a rapidly intensifying hurricane. Call me crazy, but at this rate, it looks likely.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Shockwave]

Then you sir, have more guts than I do. My hat is off to you. I cannot even come close to matching his knowledge in his field ( or mine....New Deal...working a PhD in history..he probably knows more than I do) I just cannot discount his years at the NHC.

I'm entitled to my opinion, even if it doesn't match a Doctored meteorologist one. If you read my post I said I commend him and all the mets who have gone through the difficult math and science courses to get there degrees and what hours and hours of studying they have to do.

[Bailey1777]

Doesn't matter much the same area's are under the gun.

[Tireman4]

I know I sound like broken record, but remember folks, people do read these board. When you speculate, they will tend to take it to fact. Some might even let their guard down. My opinion, and this is just an opinion, is to follow the NHC forecast track. Just me.