ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Tireman4]

Then you sir, have more guts than I do. My hat is off to you. I cannot even come close to matching his knowledge in his field ( or mine....New Deal...working a PhD in history..he probably knows more than I do) I just cannot discount his years at the NHC.

I'm entitled to my opinion, even if it doesn't match a Doctored meteorologist one. If you read my post I said I commend him and all the mets who have gone through the difficult math and science courses to get there degrees and what hours and hours of studying they have to do.

I agree. I was just making a statement. I did commend you.

[Shockwave]

Then you sir, have more guts than I do. My hat is off to you. I cannot even come close to matching his knowledge in his field ( or mine....New Deal...working a PhD in history..he probably knows more than I do) I just cannot discount his years at the NHC.

I'm entitled to my opinion, even if it doesn't match a Doctored meteorologist one. If you read my post I said I commend him and all the mets who have gone through the difficult math and science courses to get there degrees and what hours and hours of studying they have to do.

I agree. I was just making a statement. I did commend you.

Ok, sorry man. Took your post the wrong way. I do that alot.

[dhweather]

Do the shallower waters around Eduardo inhibit strengthening to a point or does that apply to major hurricanes? I remember when Rita came through one of the mets were saying that once it entered the shallower waters it would weaken or not intensify...can't remember which. Sorry for the newbie question.

The depth of the water just offshore in the Northern GOM will not support significant intensification of a slow moving, poorly developed storm. As Ed churns up the GOM and moves slowly, he's not helping himself develop.

So yes, shallow water can be an inhibitor.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

With the bright reds that are showing up in what can now only be called a CDO, I would not be surprised if the next recon flight finds a rapidly intensifying hurricane. Call me crazy, but at this rate, it looks likely.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

I would be surprised if the next recon flight finds anything else but a growing tropical storm. I don't see the organization. I'd call ya crazy but I'm not like that. I'm having a peek at the link. I don't think thats CDO, just some nice heavy convection. Persistence is key! Lets see if this stuff wraps around or not.

[Steve]

Just got a band through New Orleans which is where I am at the moment.

Steve

[tolakram]

For those of you wondering why the NHC sat page is blank.

From here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

You can go to the messages page:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/messages.html

And on there you can read the latest message that talks about an outage due to a server issue:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/MESS/MSG2172228.01.txt

[HouTXmetro]

We are in D-Min were convection should be weakest. However Ed didn't exactlly explode during D-max.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Although the center is clearly reforming slightly further NE, the overall movement is still nearly due west. Based on the steering at all levels, landfall may occur on the mouth of Galveston Bay or slightly further NE between Bolivar Point and southern High Island, Texas. Overall, the reformation won't alter the path and heading, though it will shift the landfall point to a slightly higher latitude within the Galveston/Houston metropolitan area. I still staunchly retain my original forecast for a strong TS making landfall in Texas (solidly SW of the Texas/Louisiana border), though the landfall location will be slightly further NE than I originally expected.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

I think "all systems are go" for pre-shore intensification.

[physicx07]

On the recon page, I think I saw they punched through an eye-like calm spot.

[crazycajuncane]

What I don't get is how some people are convinced that the track of this storm can not change. People are truly concerned after what happened during Rita in 2005. People in Vermilion parish were not even supposed to be affected but yet they were evacuating their homes when the storm took a sharp turn to the north and flooded them out. When you live 5 miles from the coast in SW Louisiana and you seem a storm jog north this late in the game it's a big deal. The local met just said it himself... any jog in the track could bring the difference in minimual effects to large effects. The media will stay focused on large cities. People who are in the watch area have all the right to be concerned until this thing makes landfall.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not convinced this is heading for South Central LA, but they are probably so not ready for it, and this would be the forecast bust of the 21st Century.


That, and my lawn would not get the needed rain.



Go West, young TC...

[Sean in New Orleans]

The heavier squalls are moving alot further inland in Louisiana with the storm slowing down and inching more N/NW, for the time being. It's very clear the center is getting closer to the LA Coast just by all of the weather moving onshore. Either way, it doesn't matter where this system hits, it's not that big of a deal. Just some rain and wind. It's windier with a Summertime thunderstorm than this system.

[MGC]

Center reformation should lessen Edouard chance of reaching hurricane intensity. It will take just that much longer for Edouard to develope a solid inner core and the TS will likely run out of water.....MGC

[njweather]

NHC's 7PM track-map remains unchanged, even though they noted the center reformation.

[Aric Dunn]

60kts FL

[RL3AO]

235930 2844N 09111W 8423 01545 0073 +149 +149 144056 060 043 009 00
000000 2845N 09109W 8422 01547 0082 +139 +139 141056 059 039 010 00

[Rainband]

reformation bad!!!!

With all due respect this is a TS not a Major Hurricane and it's not forecast to be one. It will give beneficial rains to an area that needs them. That's a good thing

[hwego7]

recon is reporting 60kt FL and 49kt SFMR...I know the NHC said this is not strengthening, but is there a chance they were wrong on the update just 11 minutes ago? I never question them because they're the best in the world, but it does appear recon is reporting intensification.

[HarlequinBoy]

What I don't get is how some people are convinced that the track of this storm can not change. People are truly concerned after what happened during Rita in 2005. People in Vermilion parish were not even supposed to be affected but yet they were evacuating their homes when the storm took a sharp turn to the north and flooded them out. When you live 5 miles from the coast in SW Louisiana and you seem a storm jog north this late in the game it's a big deal. The local met just said it himself... any jog in the track could bring the difference in minimual effects to large effects. The media will stay focused on large cities. People who are in the watch area have all the right to be concerned until this thing makes landfall.

Exactly. Especially when you're talking about the Louisiana coastline. It's much more vulnerable than other coasts.

[Cape Verde]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Although the center is clearly reforming slightly further NE, the overall movement is still nearly due west. Based on the steering at all levels, landfall may occur on the mouth of Galveston Bay or slightly further NE between Bolivar Point and southern High Island, Texas. Overall, the reformation won't alter the path and heading, though it will shift the landfall point to a slightly higher latitude within the Galveston/Houston metropolitan area. I still staunchly retain my original forecast for a strong TS making landfall in Texas (solidly SW of the Texas/Louisiana border), though the landfall location will be slightly further NE than I originally expected.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

I think "all systems are go" for pre-shore intensification.

I only disagree with that slightly, and nobody should ever take my prediction as anything but a layman's guess.


The reformation of the center does not significantly change its path. The steering currents haven't changed. At most this will delay landfall by a couple of hours, although that raises the chances of the storm breaking into the exalted hurricane status.

Bottom line, it doesn't change much at all.