Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[wyq614]

Chacor, I can't open that website, but thank you all the same.

Return to wait for NRL update.

[wxman57]

24 hrs over the BOC with favorable atmospheric conditions will be more than enough for a TD or weak TS to form. We have seen this happen a few times over the past few years. Moreover, this system has shown that it can get back together pretty quick.

That's true, but there's no guarantee that it'll track that far north. Could remain mostly inland. In any case, nothing going on with it today. Heading out for a 4-hr bike ride.

[Thunder44]

I do beleive the center is near Chetumal. The naval base to the SW of the city is reporting NW winds. That means it is likely heading N of W meaning it should come out near Campeche instead of Sabancuy. This is night and day. If it comes out near Campeche, then you will have a named system on your hands likely.. .

The NHC initialized movement at 320 degrees at 7kts, which is NW at 8mph. On it's present course it would be re-emerge into the BOC on tomorrow morning.

Remember, there's a building ridge over northern Mexico, Texas, and the western Gulf today and tomorrow. That'll produce increasing mid-level NE winds across the BoC. Building ridge to the north means a westerly track and/or south of west by Sunday. Probably staying inland over Mexico or brushing the southern BoC coast. But it'll be inland another 24 hours, at least.

I think it would of probably gained enough latitude today, that it probably move further north of the BOC coast for awhile. It would probably have to start turn more westward in the next 6 to 12 hours, to stay inland.

You know what after just looking at some water vapor imagery it may start doing that soon.

[HURAKAN]

wxman57, there's no guarantee in weather forecasting!!! But we must say that this system has been more than surprising.

[bvigal]

Chacor, I can't open that website, but thank you all the same.

Return to wait for NRL update.

One possibility, it could be your browser settings. In IE, it's in 'advanced' and termed "enable folder view for FTP sites". If that's not the problem, it's firewall/antivirus settings.

If you haven't seen the NRL update, maybe your browser hasn't refreshed.

[Thunder44]

That high looks like it's building down faster than I thought it would. I think we may see a westward motion resume very soon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[bvigal]

from TAFB/NHC

[wxman57]

That high looks like it's building down faster than I thought it would. I think we may seen a westward motion resume very soon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Yeah, note the dry air bulging down into the northern BoC already. Ridge gets stronger tomorrow/Monday, too.

[flwxwatcher]

That high looks like it's building down faster than I thought it would. I think we may seen a westward motion resume very soon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Yeah, note the dry air bulging down into the northern BoC already. Ridge gets stronger tomorrow/Monday, too.

I sense we maybe seeing a picture of Shanter and Bones soon.

[gatorcane]

until convection is out of the NW caribbean I am not comfortable.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

A more closer view.

[cpdaman]

looks like the very early season excitement is over,

hopefully nobody seriously injured in central america , will be back in a month or so.

[HURAKAN]

Intense convection.

[srainhoutx]

That high looks like it's building down faster than I thought it would. I think we may seen a westward motion resume very soon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Yeah, note the dry air bulging down into the northern BoC already. Ridge gets stronger tomorrow/Monday, too.

[cycloneye]

000
WONT41 KNHC 311519
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOVED INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS PRIMARILY OVER THE WATERS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TO FORM IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ON SUNDAY.

EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR..GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON
THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME

[RL3AO]

Now we need to see if this wonders around in the BOC waiting for a trough to bring it north, or if it will go well into mainland Mexico.

[Sanibel]

WOW! That system is definitely holding energy being fed in from the east over the Caribbean!

Crossover.


Rule of thumb: Watch systems that maintain strength while over land.

[Thunder44]

So I wonder now, if they are going to task a recon to go in there on Sunday, assuming it does go back out into the BOC.

[lebron23]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif