ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[vacanechaser]

Then why do we have another pro met with a center fix about a degree to the south of that Derek?

you gonna argue about a degree???



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Honeyko]

Here's what these things do, people:

1) Fake you out all morning with strong "bow shock"/MLC convection, which then peters out during the afternoon minima.

2) Either develop a "great red spot" on color IR over the LLC around 10pm-midnight (intensifying) .....or don't (meaning it'll puke when getting close to the LAs, and degenerate to an open wave which will putter along until the next opportunity in the WCAR).

==//==

I am impressed by the quick development of convection in the banding today.

[KWT]

No I was just curious if its that well defined then why are pro mets placing it at different latitudes, thats all, a simple point and nothing is meant by it other then a observation!

[vacanechaser]

No I was just curious if its that well defined then why are pro mets placing it at different latitudes, thats all, a simple point and nothing is meant by it other then a observation!

10-4.... no problem... just wanted to clear that up... it is somewhat cloud covered... so it makes it a bit tough to pin point the center... but it looks very close to the position derek was talking about


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cheezyWXguy]

Well the circulation appears much less elongated and appears to have tightened up a bit. Although, this is one MASSIVE system. Convection appears to be increasing and development chances on the ssd tropical cyclone development probability page have skyrocketed.

[Vortex]

Folks,

It certainly appears we have a TS/Hurricane headed for the northern anitlles and PR. Thereafter it looks more likely impacts for the Bahamas then Florida or Bahamas and the Carolinas..Right now I'm favoring a right turn before reaching FL but it might be very close.

[vacanechaser]

Well the circulation appears much less elongated and appears to have tightened up a bit. Although, this is one MASSIVE system. Convection appears to be increasing and development chances on the ssd tropical cyclone development probability page have skyrocketed.

i would not say massive... its a relativly small system.. thats why i think the gfs is having trouble hanging on to it right now... just a thought



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Derek Ortt]

a good rule of thumb

if the emts do not agree on the center location, it is a disorganized system

[cheezyWXguy]

Well the circulation appears much less elongated and appears to have tightened up a bit. Although, this is one MASSIVE system. Convection appears to be increasing and development chances on the ssd tropical cyclone development probability page have skyrocketed.

i would not say massive... its a relativly small system.. thats why i think the gfs is having trouble hanging on to it right now... just a thought



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

i dunno. the deep convection is small, but the circulation is large and the shallow convection covers a large area.

[KWT]

Yep the NE Caribbean obviously going to have to keep a close eye on this system and maybe further down the road the east coast we shall see.

cheezyWXguy, its slowly getting there and the T numbers did increase, if we can get them upto 2.0 then there is a real chance if Qscat finds a LLC we could see an upgrade though IMO thats still a little ways down the road yet.

Its got an interesting structure to it even if the LLC is exposed, wonder what Dmax will bring.

[Honeyko]

Folks, It certainly appears we have a TS/Hurricane headed for the northern anitlles and PR.

Maybe. It's still early August; the cap is generally ferocious this time of year. Quite often you'll see an Invest blow up right about where 92 is now, but then fall apart as it nears the LAs.

Thereafter it looks more likely impacts for the Bahamas then Florida or Bahamas and the Carolinas.

Sayeth I: There be a snowball's chance in Hell this thing recurves up the east coast when that SAL is roaring across the top of it like a Kenworth haulin' logs. Jamaica ought be more worried than Puerto Rico.

[deltadog03]

That 8-10 day means from the EURO And GFS would simply imply the ridge will be holding strong near florida.

[DESTRUCTION5]

That 8-10 day means from the EURO And GFS would simply imply the ridge will be holding strong near florida.

this year has been running paralell with the pattern of 04...for at least the last 3 months...

[Recurve]

I know what whoever said "large" means. The envelope seems large, outflow and inflow banding seems today to have started to focus from across a large area. This looks like a system developing with very little shear and some good diffluence aloft maybe, but less focused convergence. Just my take.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would not be surprised if this one is a TD in 12 hours or less and a TS in 18-24. But then it wouldn't be a shock either if it didn't make TD for another day.
I just don't like the look of it now. I'm going to be most interested in shear and SSTs ahead.

[KWT]

Yeah the ridge does build in pretty far across and its the first real major pattern shift we've seen this season and its just in time for 92L as is the MJO flip.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

I'm going to be most interested in shear and SSTs ahead.

Go to model runs thread for the SHIP forecast of shear and ssts.

[Emmett_Brown]

Couple of observations (my opinions:)

1. The envelop for this system is large. If you look at the vis loop, the overall gyre is almost 7 degrees of longitude wide (rotation between 40 and 47W. If I had to pick a center, I would aim for the middle of the gyre somewhere near 11.4N, 43.4W

2. With such a large gyre, the system probably has several centers rotating around. This means it should take at least another day to consolidate.

3. In the wave train illustration from a previous post, there were 4 areas identified. I think that erea 1 (now 92L) is sucking up area 2 to its east. This is probably favors strengthening of 92L, since is adds more moisture, but overall slows the timing a bit.

[vacanechaser]

Sayeth I: There be a snowball's chance in Hell this thing recurves up the east coast when that SAL is roaring across the top of it like a Kenworth haulin' logs. Jamaica ought be more worried than Puerto Rico.

the sal is not roaring across anywhere... the area you are talking about is weak... that would have little effect on the system.... the sal is not an issue at all this season...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cheezyWXguy]

Folks, It certainly appears we have a TS/Hurricane headed for the northern anitlles and PR.

Maybe. It's still early August; the cap is generally ferocious this time of year. Quite often you'll see an Invest blow up right about where 92 is now, but then fall apart as it nears the LAs.

Thereafter it looks more likely impacts for the Bahamas then Florida or Bahamas and the Carolinas.

Sayeth I: There be a snowball's chance in Hell this thing recurves up the east coast when that SAL is roaring across the top of it like a Kenworth haulin' logs. Jamaica ought be more worried than Puerto Rico.

the sal isnt bad at all. Besides high pressure steers storms, not sal. Its not like they can choose whether or not to move into unfavorable conditions.