ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1145 UTC 12.5N 37.0W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
94 L has troubles it's too weak right now previously 1.0/1.0 but system is more to south and racing straight west..
Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1145 UTC 12.5N 37.0W TOO WEAK 94L

19/0600 UTC 12.8N 36.3W T1.0/1.0 9EL
18/2345 UTC 12.9N 35.7W T1.0/1.0 94L
18/1745 UTC 12.9N 35.0W T1.0/1.0 94L
18/1200 UTC 12.4N 34.6W TOO WEAK 94L

[stormchazer]

We have seen this with many Invest this season Gustywind. They kind of wane a bit in the Atlantic before getting going. Ships now showing less shear then originally progged so who knows.

[Gustywind]

Absolutely Stormchazer, hope nothing serious from this Invest and that will be good news for us in the Leewards if this could bring only water as twave status.
I don't want to be so optimistic but Jeff Masters do not see this thing to pose a threat for the Leewards or Northern Leewards , whereas we continue to keep an eye on this....
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 13N 38W, about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. This system (94L) shows signs of rotation on visible satellite imagery. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over this disturbance, and is expected to remain about 10 knots through Wednesday. The storm is over warm 28°C waters. Given these moderately favorable conditions, NHC is giving this system a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The storm is expected to track west-northwest and be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday night. Wind shear is forecast to increase to 20-30 knots over the storm Thursday-Saturday, which should halt any development. There is a large area of dry air and Saharan dust to the northwest of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. This dry air is already interfering with development, and likely will continue to do so over the next three days. The GFDL and HWRF develop 94L into a weak tropical storm, but none to the other models develop it. I don't expect this storm will be a problem for the Lesser Antilles.

[Gustywind]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

[ConvergenceZone]

:uarrow:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

Thanks GustyWind for posting that...Yea, very few seem to seem bullish about this developing at all, seems to be a non-event...but of course, there is always the outside chance that it can do something that nobody expects..

[HURAKAN]

Like I said yesterday, we have to wait at least 24 hours and it seems development is unlikely at this point. But this is August and everything has to be watched.

[dixiebreeze]

94 to pull a Fay?:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[cycloneye]

[stormchazer]

94 to pull a Fay?:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

That is quite a difference in opinion compared to Dr. Masters. Of course he said he doesn't think it will be a problem for the LA so I guess that is not definitive. I know most invest do not develop but this system has had a great spin since the get go. I guess time will tell but Hurricane Activity is historically on the upswing at this time and I think MJO is in place. Guess I better check that.

[perk]

At the moment i'm more concerned with Fay re-entering the GOM, we have plenty of time to watch 94L.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, thats a dramatic shift in intensity and shear by the ships, bringing the storm to 81kt and shear is at about 10kt or less through the whole 5 days. Assuming this comes to fruition, once the dry ai eventually mixes out, then some pretty decent strengthening looks to be possible. Of course this is the first forecast not showing shear by the ships, and needs to be monitored for continuity.

[cheezyWXguy]

94 to pull a Fay?:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

If its that far south by then, I dont see what will pull it north, as the high is forecast to develop back, which is what pushes fay west. In addition, if its that far south by then, I dont see where all the shear comes from. Based on that it seems like it may be stronger storm that gets pulled up near w or central cuba as opposed to the dr.

[cycloneye]

You can see the rotation here,but also you can see plumes of clouds stream from SW to NE meaning shear is in the area:

[Sanibel]

Has enough circulation to look like it should beat any shear, but is too far east to hazard a guess. Wait until 45W.

[cheezyWXguy]

what is the forecast for the TUTT to its north? Will it pull w or wsw then move back out to sea?

[Gustywind]

:uarrow:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

Thanks GustyWind for posting that...Yea, very few seem to seem bullish about this developing at all, seems to be a non-event...but of course, there is always the outside chance that it can do something that nobody expects..

Tkanks for the reply Convergence Zone no prob my friend if i can be informative i woud be glad as usual, agree with your reasoning"there is always the outside chance that it can do something that nobody expects" YEAH we're in August right now and any waves can be SUSPICIOUS at ANYTIME, we should surely not let our guard down , "unhopefully "mother Nature has always SURPRISES in store , for my part i continue to keep an eye on this in case of...

[KWT]

Looks slightly less impressive than yesterday but there does seem to be more shear.

In regards to shear, looks like the models really are at a lost in this regard.

The thing to remember is this has a huge amount of water to cover and we as saw with Dolly and Fay it may take a while but its got every chance of doing it in the end.

My bet would be for formation around 50W.

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Shear is cutting slighlty 94L to its north.
But as yo well said KWT i do believe that conditions appears more favorable to see something forming near 50W or maybe 45W , shear will be weak and sst's warm( should it verifies first , wait and see....

[Gustywind]

Here's is my thought on 94L at short term....
The 19 Aug 16z position 12.5N 37.2W, motion 280 degrees @6kt, wind 25kt, pressure 1009mb. Now have moved this south a bit in 12z model init data, but show it traveling slightly more N than before; also, slowed down to 6kt. If it stays south of 13N and moves slowly and generally west, it might miss the shear which hampers development. similar to my previous post but with more details on the synopsis...

[dixiebreeze]

Gustav wannabe looking better this afternoon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg