ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Steve H.]

Early returns from the 18z GFS poll hsow she gets trapped and a SW trend begins

[DESTRUCTION5]

6 days out headed for Central FL...

[johngaltfla]

The EURO does not slam south florida in that run...but it gets close and then goes on destroy whats left of Louisiana after Gustav.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082812!!/

That is thefriggin sickest Model run in History..

That is beyond sick. If we see that, the southeast is in trouble. I pray that we do not get a re-verification of any of these runs on Saturday or Sunday.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS has landfall PSL area in about 8 days..Changes forthcoming...Im sure

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS has landfall PSL area in about 8 days..Changes forthcoming...Im sure

I don't like that...Not in MY backyard!!!

SFT

[gtsmith]

GFS has landfall PSL area in about 8 days..Changes forthcoming...Im sure

never mind i see it in the 00Z run...LONG way out though

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS has landfall PSL area in about 8 days..Changes forthcoming...Im sure

never mind i see ti in the 00Z run...LONG way out though

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Plain as day

[gtsmith]

GFS has landfall PSL area in about 8 days..Changes forthcoming...Im sure

never mind i see ti in the 00Z run...LONG way out though

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Plain as day

8 days out though...that's where you want to be (in the bullseye)...unlikely it'll verify

[wzrgirl1]

it may be 8 days out but all of those models see some sort of pattern developing down the road....not good if it is still showing this in 2-3 days

[DanKellFla]

Way too soon to tell. But, my in-laws flight might be affected. Guess I have to get them an earlier flight out.....

[fci]

Usually, an earlier flight out for in-laws is a GOOD thing!

Seriously, we are talking over one week out if this comes to fruition (which is still quite doubtful)

[gtsmith]

it may be 8 days out but all of those models see some sort of pattern developing down the road....not good if it is still showing this in 2-3 days

I agree there's a pattern showing...i disagree with the specific landfall location holding for eight days

[wzrgirl1]

yes same here.....definitely agree on the pattern....i don't think any model can predict an exact hit 8 days before...if it did we would have an 8 day cone....and if such a case ever happened it was probably shear luck (no pun intended)

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL does a loop while its a cat 3.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[SWFLA_CANE]

18Z HWRF sends Hanna N.E. at the end of the run and never gets above min. hurricane.

[wzrgirl1]

can you send that link please

[SWFLA_CANE]

can you send that link please

I don't know how but I'll give it a shot...here is the link
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 290030
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0030 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA (AL082008) 20080829 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080829 0000 080829 1200 080830 0000 080830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.8N 60.2W 21.9N 62.2W 23.2N 64.1W 24.2N 65.8W
BAMD 20.8N 60.2W 21.8N 61.8W 23.0N 63.5W 24.0N 65.2W
BAMM 20.8N 60.2W 21.7N 62.0W 22.7N 63.8W 23.6N 65.5W
LBAR 20.8N 60.2W 21.9N 61.6W 23.0N 63.3W 24.1N 65.2W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 51KTS 58KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 51KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080831 0000 080901 0000 080902 0000 080903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.1N 67.3W 26.6N 69.8W 26.4N 71.4W 25.2N 73.7W
BAMD 24.9N 66.7W 26.2N 68.6W 26.2N 69.4W 25.7N 70.1W
BAMM 24.3N 67.0W 25.3N 69.1W 25.1N 70.3W 24.5N 71.5W
LBAR 24.8N 67.1W 25.0N 70.7W 23.0N 73.9W 20.2N 76.3W
SHIP 63KTS 73KTS 74KTS 70KTS
DSHP 63KTS 73KTS 74KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.8N LONCUR = 60.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 20.2N LONM12 = 58.6W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 19.5N LONM24 = 57.3W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 10NM RD34NW = 20NM

$$
NNNN

Oh boy,look at that.

[wzrgirl1]

not a promising run

[DanKellFla]

Sensei, what is the beginning of wisdom?
"I don't know."