ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[KWT]

I think tonights 12z models will be very interesting, the general idea now seems to be that we may get a slight WSW bobble, then a WNW lift and then ???
Thats what the models have to sort out, the 06z GFS and 0a ECM do suggests a weakness will take Ike up eventually but they differ on the exact timings.

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
GFS loop thru 54 hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml
GFS 850 mb loop for clarity up to 54 hrs so far.

[Ivanhater]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
GFS loop thru 54 hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml
GFS 850 mb loop for clarity up to 54 hrs so far.

This whole talk about Ike following Hannah's weakness is wrong...GFS build the ridge right back under Hannah

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
GFS loop thru 84 hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml
GFS 850 mb loop for clarity up to 84 hrs so far.

This whole talk about Ike following Hannah's weakness is wrong...GFS build the ridge right back under Hannah

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_85v_084l.gif

Will be worth watching. I hope not.

[KWT]

GFS is further south so far then on the 06z run but the weakness left by Hanna is a touch stronger this run thus far.

[Wx_Warrior]

KWT...EURO sends it up east coast after a hit on florida. That may change with the next run, but the last 2 were EC runs. GFS isn't the only model.

[canetracker]

GFS 108 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
GFS loop thru 108 hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml
GFS 850 mb loop for clarity up to 108 hrs so far.

[Stormcenter]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
GFS loop thru 54 hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml
GFS 850 mb loop for clarity up to 54 hrs so far.

This whole talk about Ike following Hannah's weakness is wrong...GFS build the ridge right back under Hannah

Come on now it's happened many times before in history. How can you say it's wrong?

[KWT]

Exactly afterwards, the GFS 06z run was quicker in breaking down the high and sending this to the north.

12z GFS still a litle SW of the 06z position and also upper flow a little flatter on the 12z run but enough of a weakness to still suggest Ike lifts up on the Voricity charts.

[Ivanhater]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
GFS loop thru 54 hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml
GFS 850 mb loop for clarity up to 54 hrs so far.

This whole talk about Ike following Hannah's weakness is wrong...GFS build the ridge right back under Hannah

Come on now it's happened many times before in history. How can you say it's wrong?

Im not talkign about history Im talking about now..check out the 500mb GFS after Hannah moves out...GFS builds it back right away..now later in the forecast the high could retreat back east, allowing Ike to recurve, but not because of Hannah

[KWT]

Not quite Ivanhater, look at the way Hanna leaves a tail through the weakness so to speak as it goes extra tropical

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_102l.gif

That then erodes the western side of the high and forces the high to reatreat. This is why the GFS recurves Ike and thats a pluaseable set-up IF the GFS has handled the HP correctly...I'm not so sure about that just yet as the GFS does tend to under estimate highs somewhat past 96hrs.

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_138l.gif
500 mb gfs @ 138 hr

and 156 hrs he is curving away....

[Ivanhater]

Not quite Ivanhater, look at the way Hanna leaves a tail through the weakness so to speak as it goes extra tropical

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_102l.gif

That then erodes the western side of the high and forces the high to reatreat. This is why the GFS recurves Ike and thats a pluaseable set-up IF the GFS has handled the HP correctly...I'm not so sure about that just yet as the GFS does tend to under estimate highs somewhat past 96hrs.

[Ivanhater]

Not quite Ivanhater, look at the way Hanna leaves a tail through the weakness so to speak as it goes extra tropical

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_102l.gif

That then erodes the western side of the high and forces the high to reatreat. This is why the GFS recurves Ike and thats a pluaseable set-up IF the GFS has handled the HP correctly...I'm not so sure about that just yet as the GFS does tend to under estimate highs somewhat past 96hrs.

KWT, the ridge starts to break down from the trough digging down from the Midwest of the US..that is what will likely break down the ridge that builds behind Hannah and follows Ike if the GFS is correct

[SWFLA_CANE]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_156l.gif

Looks like out to sea off the east coast.

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_156l.gif

Looks like out to sea off the east coast.

I sure hope so. We have plenty of time to watch the trends, but I sure would like to see this happen.

168 hr GFS

[KWT]

Yep just like the last run...I'm not so sure about this right now however because the GFS has a bad habit of being too quick breaking down upper highs in favour of upper troughs.

[cycloneye]

I would wait for UKMET and the EURO to see if those models confirm what GFS is doing at 12z.So I wont jump on the out to sea bandwagon for now.

[canetracker]

Yep just like the last run...I'm not so sure about this right now however because the GFS has a bad habit of being too quick breaking down upper highs in favour of upper troughs.

Thanks KWT, thats not what I want to hear but unfortunately this could be true. Gustav was and is enough stress for me and I don't like Ike!

[Frank2]

Troughs are very slow to dissipate, Ivanhater, that's why the timing of Hanna is so critical to Ike's track...

Glad others here are in agreement - otherwise some might accuse me of just being "Frank" again...

LOL

P.S. Frank's one of those names that can be a name, a character trait, and, a school lunch item (or all three)...

Quack...