ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Seems like the errors in these type of storms tend to be that they go further "east" than expected.

All of the Pro Mets seem to totally discount a Florida impact which is why I suspect it is not even mentioned at all in any forecasting.

Seems the only way Paloma has a chance to effect SFL is for her to miss the trough as predicted by the GFS, Nogaps, and Ukmet and then survive the intense shear. Missing the trough is possible but surviving the shear will be difficult. Paloma gives us once last Atlantic system to follow for 2008, hopefully it won't be a big event for Cuba.

[gatorcane]

Seems like the errors in these type of storms tend to be that they go further "east" than expected.

All of the Pro Mets seem to totally discount a Florida impact which is why I suspect it is not even mentioned at all in any forecasting.

Indeed, Paloma is not a Florida system and hopefully for Cuba the 60-80K jet above 20N that will build in over the next few days will greatly reduce Paloma's intensity before landfall in Cuba which has already been affected by several systems this season including Ike and Fay.

[Derek Ortt]

this is not a large system. It is one very small cyclone. The actual circulation is one of the smaller WC systems I can remember (comparable to Iris)

[CaneMaster]

Seems my estimates over the past couple days have been pretty on point development and intensity wise/ I had guestimated it'd be paloma by last night and that it would be cat 2 at landfall yesterday morning ... So far i'm doing pretty good on this one, let's just hope it doesn't make me look like a moran.... lol
I can't believe i picked out the other storm as well.....

[CaneMaster]

I'd also say I think IMO this is going to take a western steer like the GFS is predicting if it makes it that far out without getting shredded apart by shear.... May fallow a track similar to the gale center that's currently spinning away here to the east of me... that's just my guess, however with steering the way it is looking it does have a good chance to be ejected into the ne, we'll just have to wait and see.

[CrazyC83]

Recon now supports a 50 kt intensity.

[gatorcane]

For those that want to see the "trough" everybody keeps talking about, look at this image. We see a huge spiral area in the North central plains. That's a large Upper-level low headed ENE. Now imagine a front extending all the way down south to the Mexico/US border.

Paloma will be toast with this trough passes through the GOM, and will cause Paloma to be lifted out to the ENE or NE within about 48 hours or so.

[jinftl]

Sounds like the front sure will be fizzling out by the time it gets to florida...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1039 AM EST THU NOV 6 2008

WHILE PALOMA MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH S FL SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. LIMITED IMPACT REGARDING TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH
THIS FRONT, HOWEVER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL DEEPEN THE EASTERLIES
OVER S FL AND ALLOW FOR A FEW SHRA TO MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE KEEPING THE WEST COAST MOSTLY DRY.

For those that want to see the "trough" everybody keeps talking about, look at this image. We see a huge spiral area in the North central plains. That's a large Upper-level low headed ENE. Now imagine a front extending all the way down south to the Mexico/US border.

Paloma will be toast with this trough passes through the GOM, and will cause Paloma to be lifted out to the ENE or NE within about 48 hours or so.

[MGC]

Toast? That all depends if Paloma can accelerate ahead of the trough, kinda like Wilma did. A rapid NE or ENE movement will negate the shear and the hurricane can exist until extratropical transition happens. With Palma's relative small size the possibility of rapid intensity swings are possible......MGC

[cycloneye]

AT 100 PM EST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
LOCATED BY AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE NEAR LATITUDE 15.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...NORTHEAST
OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT
235 MILES...380 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST FORECAST LATE ON FRIDAY OR ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PALOMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

[gatorcane]

Toast? That all depends if Paloma can accelerate ahead of the trough, kinda like Wilma did. A rapid NE or ENE movement will negate the shear and the hurricane can exist until extratropical transition happens. With Palma's relative small size the possibility of rapid intensity swings are possible......MGC

No doubt Paloma has about 48 hours or so of excellent conditions for possible RI but above 20N the westerlies are going to be on the increase during this timeframe, and if she decides to venture north of 20N then shear should rip her apart pretty good and weaken her substantially. That is what Cuba will be hoping for right now.

Considering the westerly vector of movement is now gone and she is already moving North, well some eastward adjustments to the track are not out of the question and she could be on a more NE track sooner than forecasted.

What a difference 48 hours makes:

Nov 4th:


Now:

[HURAKAN]

Paloma is taking flight! Great name for an intensifying storm!!!

[gatorcane]

so here's a thought: could Paloma's very small size (combined with shear) be what the UKMET/CMC/ECMWF/NOGAPS models are suggesting would cause Paloma to NOT get ejected out to the NE? Interestingly enough 12Z runs of UKMET and CMC do a "loop" sending her back west. ECMWF will run in about 2 hours but the last run showed Paloma looping back west albeit it killed her also.

[DESTRUCTION5]

so here's a thought: could Paloma's very small size (combined with shear) be what the UKMET/CMC/ECMWF/NOGAPS models are suggesting would cause Paloma to NOT get ejected out to the NE? Interestingly enough 12Z runs of UKMET and CMC do a "loop" sending her back west. ECMWF will run in about 2 hours but the last run showed Paloma looping back west albeit it killed her also.

Other 2 will be out in 20 min...Lets see if thier still in the clean out the Carribean camp.

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

so here's a thought: could Paloma's very small size (combined with shear) be what the UKMET/CMC/ECMWF/NOGAPS models are suggesting would cause Paloma to NOT get ejected out to the NE? Interestingly enough 12Z runs of UKMET and CMC do a "loop" sending her back west. ECMWF will run in about 2 hours.

The European is just dissipating Paloma in the strong wind shear, as was mentioned in the last NHC discussion. It wasn't suggesting an alternate track.

[gatorcane]

If you look at this VIS loop, she's already turning NNE to me. In fact the XTRAP at 12Z is already showing a NNE movement -- looking at the steering currents it wouldn't surpise me if she starts moving ENE later on today (a drift that is). She's clearly rounding the western periphery of the ridge situated near the Dominican republic.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Blown Away]

I wonder what the synoptic setup was for Gordon because Gordon's track looks very similiar to what the models have Paloma doing if she misses the trough. Gordon was pretty weak near SFL and I bet Gordon was under heavy shear when it began that W movement back towards SFL.

[hurricanefloyd5]

it looks to be nearing Hurricane status now cause an eye looks to be popping out now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

Check out the predicted upper-level winds from Cuba to Florida for this weekend. 60-80 kt WSW-W winds aloft. That's not a flow pattern for bringing a hurricane to Florida: