ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[physicx07]

That and the calm spot they found in the center would seem to indicate it's getting a core. I think Ed may have turned a corner for intensification.

recon is reporting 60kt FL and 49kt SFMR...I know the NHC said this is not strengthening, but is there a chance they were wrong on the update just 11 minutes ago? I never question them because their the best in the world, but it does appear recon is reporting intensification.

[MiamiensisWx]

What I don't get is how some people are convinced that the track of this storm can not change. People are truly concerned after what happened during Rita in 2005. People in Vermilion parish were not even supposed to be affected but yet they were evacuating their homes when the storm took a sharp turn to the north and flooded them out. When you live 5 miles from the coast in SW Louisiana and you seem a storm jog north this late in the game it's a big deal. The local met just said it himself... any jog in the track could bring the difference in minimual effects to large effects. The media will stay focused on large cities. People who are in the watch area have all the right to be concerned until this thing makes landfall.

Personally, I believe SW Louisiana should still remain very alert, especially with mid level moisture increasing and dry air mixing out (leading to more convection on the N and W quadrants).

Why are some people downplaying this one? It will be intensifying at landfall, though I don't expect the TC to exceed strong TS status.

[Vortex]

Folks, This is NOT making landfall in LA. While the system slowly organizes wobbles are likely but the OVERALL motion has not changed and this will make landfall very near Galveston early tuesday afternoon. I still expect a 65-80 mph storm

[Aric Dunn]

reformation bad!!!!

With all due respect this is a TS not a Major Hurricane and it's not forecast to be one. It will give beneficial rains to an area that needs them. That's a good thing

Of course its a TS now.. but reformations are typically followed by intensifications.. so that is bad since a moderate TS is much better than even minimal Hurricane

[HarlequinBoy]

Even if the NHC does decide to change the track, it won't show up until the next complete advisory. They don't make changes on intermediate ones I don't think.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Although the center is clearly reforming slightly further NE, the overall movement is still nearly due west. Based on the steering at all levels, landfall may occur on the mouth of Galveston Bay or slightly further NE between Bolivar Point and southern High Island, Texas. Overall, the reformation won't alter the path and heading, though it will shift the landfall point to a slightly higher latitude within the Galveston/Houston metropolitan area. I still staunchly retain my original forecast for a strong TS making landfall in Texas (solidly SW of the Texas/Louisiana border), though the landfall location will be slightly further NE than I originally expected.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

I think "all systems are go" for pre-shore intensification.

I only disagree with that slightly, and nobody should ever take my prediction as anything but a layman's guess.


The reformation of the center does not significantly change its path. The steering currents haven't changed. At most this will delay landfall by a couple of hours, although that raises the chances of the storm breaking into the exalted hurricane status.

Bottom line, it doesn't change much at all.

Huh? Your thoughts on the track are identical to my analysis...

As I mentioned, the reformation essentially won't "skew" or change the west heading and ultimate track.

[cycloneye]

Even if the NHC does decide to change the track, it won't show up until the next complete advisory. They don't make changes on intermediate ones I don't think.

Yes,the track forecast is done every six hours in the complete advisories.

[3ABirdMan]

This is just one of the many reasons I LOVE to read the info you guys post! Not only do you have opinions, but you have the data to back them up (most of the time! lol).

NOW - for a couple of questions -
- Is there still a LLC as well as a MLC? I know earlier this morning, looking at the Visible satelite images, I seemed to be able to pick up 2 different rotations, or rather clouds moving in 2 directions at one place, indicating the 2 circulations were not "stacked". There have been posts all day about frier air entering from the MLC, but not a lot of talk about the LLC.
- Depending on the answer to above - Could the reforming be a shift between the locations of the LLC and the MLC, and now the LLC and MLC ARE "stacked"?

Thanks ahead of time for the answers - or at least not making fun of a newbie asking REALLY dumb questions!

I don't see how's that possible. You can clearly see the center move NE and on two different radar views.

I see it too, but remember that radar is not a straight shot - its pointed upwards at an angle (Base reflectivity is at 0.5 degrees.) The radar in question is the long range version, which goes out 286 miles. The "center" in question is over 100 miles away from the radar site (closer to 150 miles).

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/radinfo/radinfo.html

Do the trig quickly - @ 150 miles - theta is 0.5 - tan (0.5) = opp/150 all equals about 1.3 miles in the air: ~6900 feet up.

This means the "center" is not at the surface, but more towards mid-level.

Have a look at the short range, especially the composite reflectivity and you'll see the whole picture. Its just an anomaly. Its not moving NE.

[hwego7]

MAX FL WIND AND MAX OUTBOUND WIND 61 KT NE QUAD 23:59:30 Z

[Sean in New Orleans]

Who says the center is reorganizing? That's ridiculous. The center is clearly not changing and even Bob Breck said on the TV just a few minutes ago that the center appears to be deepening and an eye could be trying to form.

[physicx07]

Yeah, I remember Charley feeling frustrated seeing how it was clearly deviating east while the official track continued towards Tampa. Still I don't think Ed's general track is going to change except maybe it'll make landfall a little east of where they thought, and scraping Louisiana along the way.

Even if the NHC does decide to change the track, it won't show up until the next complete advisory. They don't make changes on intermediate ones I don't think.

[crazycajuncane]

I'm not convinced this is heading for South Central LA, but they are probably so not ready for it, and this would be the forecast bust of the 21st Century.


That, and my lawn would not get the needed rain.



Go West, young TC...

I don't think so either, but those in SW LA as in Cameron Parish should be watching closely. It it continues to jog up the coastline it'll run out of room eventually. If this thing were 60 hours out and jogged north I wouldn't care. I am just saying... watch closely. Even Katrina went east of it's doomsday headon collision with New Orleans.

[RL3AO]

Who says the center is reorganizing? That's ridiculous. The center is clearly not changing and even Bob Breck said on the TV just a few minutes ago that the center appears to be deepening and an eye could be trying to form.

The National Hurricane Center?


EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECT TO OCCUR TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF
EDOUARD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.

[dhweather]

Even if the NHC does decide to change the track, it won't show up until the next complete advisory. They don't make changes on intermediate ones I don't think.

No, they don't.

And it would be extremely rare for them to make this much of a dramatic shift in the landfall forecast.

Regardless, the entire cost in under a TS Warning, and they are getting it right now.

[Scorpion]

61 kt FL is good, now we just need that pressure to start dropping..

[Cape Verde]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Although the center is clearly reforming slightly further NE, the overall movement is still nearly due west. Based on the steering at all levels, landfall may occur on the mouth of Galveston Bay or slightly further NE between Bolivar Point and southern High Island, Texas. Overall, the reformation won't alter the path and heading, though it will shift the landfall point to a slightly higher latitude within the Galveston/Houston metropolitan area. I still staunchly retain my original forecast for a strong TS making landfall in Texas (solidly SW of the Texas/Louisiana border), though the landfall location will be slightly further NE than I originally expected.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

I think "all systems are go" for pre-shore intensification.

I only disagree with that slightly, and nobody should ever take my prediction as anything but a layman's guess.


The reformation of the center does not significantly change its path. The steering currents haven't changed. At most this will delay landfall by a couple of hours, although that raises the chances of the storm breaking into the exalted hurricane status.

Bottom line, it doesn't change much at all.

Huh? Your thoughts on the track are identical to my analysis...

As I mentioned, the reformation essentially won't "skew" or change the west heading and ultimate track.

It was a nuanced difference. I don't think it changes the track at all from the center line of the NHC forecast, but I do think it gives it a little more time over hot water, so it could become a minimal Category 1 at landfall over Galveston. Both of our predictions are too similar to make any difference.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Who says the center is reorganizing? That's ridiculous. The center is clearly not changing and even Bob Breck said on the TV just a few minutes ago that the center appears to be deepening and an eye could be trying to form.

The National Hurricane Center?


EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECT TO OCCUR TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF
EDOUARD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.

Well where is it reforming? Looks like the same center I've been watching all day.

[physicx07]

Recent recon suggested an eye forming but has yet to clear out so I am starting to believe the system is stacking up well now and the next few hours will be interesting for potential intensification. It seems to be getting its legs now.

[Clint_TX]

Well I'm not sure about track, but it's forward speed has slowed, it's blocked to the north and its becoming better organized...what will keep this storm from becoming a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2?

I would like someone to explain why that won't happen.

[Stormcenter]

Who says the center is reorganizing? That's ridiculous. The center is clearly not changing and even Bob Breck said on the TV just a few minutes ago that the center appears to be deepening and an eye could be trying to form.

Didn't the NHC mention reformation in their latest advisory?