Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ixolib]

HWRF with a near major hurricane, bringing cat 2 winds to Tampa

Hmmm... How reliable is that model? Does this have a relatively high (comparatively speaking) percentage of verifying?

[cycloneye]

The BAMS make a solid left turn in the GOM:

WHXX01 KWBC 171834
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080817 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080817 1800 080818 0600 080818 1800 080819 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.8N 79.8W 21.6N 82.1W 22.8N 83.7W 23.7N 84.7W
BAMD 20.8N 79.8W 21.7N 81.5W 22.6N 83.0W 23.4N 84.0W
BAMM 20.8N 79.8W 21.5N 81.6W 22.5N 83.3W 23.4N 84.6W
LBAR 20.8N 79.8W 21.9N 81.8W 23.5N 83.3W 25.3N 84.1W
SHIP 45KTS 46KTS 51KTS 56KTS
DSHP 45KTS 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080819 1800 080820 1800 080821 1800 080822 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.0N 85.5W 27.4N 85.9W 30.1N 86.1W 32.6N 87.0W
BAMD 24.3N 84.9W 26.4N 86.1W 29.6N 87.1W 33.1N 87.9W
BAMM 24.4N 85.7W 27.0N 87.1W 30.3N 88.3W 34.1N 89.6W
LBAR 27.5N 83.8W 31.0N 81.8W 33.2N 79.4W 35.1N 78.3W
SHIP 61KTS 63KTS 59KTS 46KTS
DSHP 52KTS 36KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.8N LONCUR = 79.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 19.6N LONM12 = 76.8W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 19.1N LONM24 = 74.6W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

HWRF really does have Fay tapping into the improving upper level conditions once it gets further north, though I suspect the GFDL is more likely to pull off in terms of strength unless it takes longer to turn north.

[Jason_B]

They're the bams though...would ignore them.

[cycloneye]

Question for any met:

Is the data from the upper atmosphere gulfstream jet that flew overnight factored in for the 12z run?

[Ivanhater]

I feel a track shift west coming

[KWT]

NHC probably will have to shift a little west as its now right on the eastern side of the guidence.

[Jason_B]

Slight shift west obviously is going to have to be made, but still not buying into the bams...that's just too extreme.

[dizzyfish]

It is strange - I don't remember seeing the NHC so far away from the guidance models before. They are really way to the right.

[Noles2006]

Well... the "trend is your friend"... definitely did not see a shift westward in the models like this coming... the models do not have a very good handle on this system... other than they all think it will turn north, eventually, lol.

[Jason_B]

To be fair, and I think somebody else pointed this out earlier, the models have been shifting twice a day. Wouldn't be surprised to see a swing right later tonight, especially when/if it turns more NW pretty soon.

[Dean4Storms]

Well... the "trend is your friend"... definitely did not see a shift westward in the models like this coming... the models do not have a very good handle on this system... other than they all think it will turn north, eventually, lol.

So far the Extrapolation model has been the most accurate!!

[cpdaman]

link to the new EURO ?

[Frank P]

To be fair, and I think somebody else pointed this out earlier, the models have been shifting twice a day. Wouldn't be surprised to see a swing right later tonight, especially when/if it turns more NW pretty soon.

it probably should have already turned NW... its south of the NHC forecast plots... so she better start turning and soon...

Dean4storms... perfect analysis... hehe

[artist]

what about these models? Are they reliable at all?

http://weather.unisys.com/ngm/4panel/ng ... panel.html

why are some of them coming into lower Miami yet they others are riding the west coast.

Does anyone else feel as confused as I do with all these model shifts, etc.?

[Noles2006]

To be fair, and I think somebody else pointed this out earlier, the models have been shifting twice a day. Wouldn't be surprised to see a swing right later tonight, especially when/if it turns more NW pretty soon.

Eh... the models haven't had a spread like this the entire life of 92L/Fay... it's pretty disturbing if you ask me...

Dean... LOL... that or NOGAPS... both make me LMAO... I have no idea what in the heck is going on.

[Ivanhater]

I really thought the models were going to lock in today..oh well

[lebron23]

Who has a link of the models besides this link
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_06.gif

[Jason_B]

I really thought the models were going to lock in today..oh well

I the fact that she's MUCH weaker than anticipated has thrown the models for a loop today.

[Scott_inVA]

FREEBIE from Mid-Atlantic WX.com

18Z. Given 8A F/A position and obvious disorganized WNW track NHC will in all likelihood need to adjust west at 5PM



Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/index.htm

Note the LLC (such as it is) has still failed the NW component progged by NHC @ 12 hours.