ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sanibel]

Sanibel, I believe Ike missed one forecast point to the south but he appears to be on track for the next one.

Disagree.

Motion I see is south of next trop point. NHC must agree because they are moving track well west.

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't understand why the NHC is saying that Ike is moving west, when it is clear now that Ike is moving WSW at the least.

[KWT]

Agreed Sanibel its heading WSW, I think this motion has to continue for a good 12-24hrs longer then the NHC expects if this is going to head into Cuba but thats just an option on the table right now.

Mind you I think its only going around 260 as the NHC states.

[cycloneye]

Ike keeps raking up the ACE numbers for the 2008 season.See the latest numbers at the Talking Tropics forum thread.

[jinftl]

They say Ike is moving at a heading of 260 degrees...that is slight south of due west....but not enough to be called w-sw.

I don't understand why the NHC is saying that Ike is moving west, when it is clear now that Ike is moving WSW at the least.

[CourierPR]

Well thats the hope anyway
Sanibel!

CourierPR, current motion of 260, if that continues this will miss the forecast point to the south again, however the new updated NHC track is a little more realistic in terms of the next 24hrs of track...

Upon further review, you're right, KWT. I apologize to Sanibel as I clean my glasses and go for another cup of joe.

[Sanibel]

Betsy, Donna, Labor Day blend?

[THead]

Great post jinftl, on the wind probabilities. Thanks for putting that together for everyone.

[Downdraft]

Once they start flying 6 hour fixes on Ike with surrounding synoptic data to feed the models the forecasts will become a lot clearer. Right now it's anyone's guess with only one real fact. Ike's headed this way and you either prepare now or your a fool. I'd rather put it all away again then have to use it. We are still dealing with Fay up here the last thing we need is more rain. Some homes along the St. John's still have 8 feet of water in them and bass in streets. Two months ago we were worried the woods would be burning now you can't reach them without a boat.

[KWT]

jinftl, yep thats a good point actually I suppose it is technically westerly still but its close to WSW, its certainly dropping latitude right now.

The eyewall on the northern side still really having a hard time keeping going.

Sanibel, possibly who knows, the ECM looks close to Betsy, I still think Donna but now a little further west.

[tolakram]

If people are going to wobble watch at least do it right.


I'm guessing shear has tilted the circulation so the center spot, where what remains of the eye is located, may be south of the actual LLC.

[Canelaw99]

Mayor Alvarez from the briefing for Miami-Dade County-

Miami Dade EOC planning a level 2 activation Sunday and a level 1 on Monday. Now is the time to check your supplies. Determine how you will secure your home if necessary, and where you will go if an evacuation order is given. Remember, if an evac order is given, we're not asking you to leave the county, just go west from where you are if you're in a flood zone. Miami-dade gov't is prepared to assist residents, but you have to take personal responsibility for yourself and your family for the first 72 hours after a storm. http://www.miamidade.gov is a great site for lots of info and it's free. Do not take a wait and see approach. Use this weekend to watch and prepare. Pay attention to local media for the latest info.

Adhere to evac orders if they come. We cannot stay in our coastal areas. If you're not sure if you're in an evac zone, call 311 and they'll verify it.

[dkommers]

Things are definately turing serious here. I never like a storm just to our south, I've seen too many last minute jogs toward the north. But there is some comfort if this trend the models have towards the south keeps on moving that way. I have to pick up the anchors for my shutters as well, can't find them any where in the garage. Are those a standard size? And when doing some research i found this (http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.as ... lang=en-US). And due to overwhelming response it will not be shipped until about 10 days. I never imagined something like that existed, that takes food from a can to a whole new level.

[KWT]

tolakram, yep clearly to the south of the previous track, follow that and if that continues about the same track but just a little further south would have it going right over the T&C.

Also yep the center is probably a touch to then north.

[AZRainman]

I don't understand why the NHC is saying that Ike is moving west, when it is clear now that Ike is moving WSW at the least.

Discussion is more specific:

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABOUT
260/14. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE WEDGING INTO
BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/051444.shtml

[Broward Mom]

It looks like it could end up close enough at least for mass evacuations from South Florida. I guess those would start Saturday or Sunday.

For funster, and everyone else who thinks mass evacuations happen here, that is NOT the plan. You "shelter in place" here unless you live in an unsafe structure or on the coast. Look at this http://www.broward.org/hurricane/pdf/english_hurricane_map.pdf. See the pink and yellow right on the ocean? That's it -- all that evacuates, the white shelters in place. I live a 20-25 min. drive west from the beach, but I won't be told to evacuate even if a Cat 5 is heading straight on with 595.

Of course, that doesn't mean MY FAMILY won't shutter up early, and head to Naples or Clewiston...on my way to Atlanta.

The loonies in the Keys are far fewer than they were years ago, but if they stay that's their loss (perhaps literally). Everyone knows it takes hours to get out of the Keys themselves, then an hour plus (without traffic) for each county north.

Ike doesn't scare me as much as a storm that's a TS that turns into a 5 at the last minute. We see it coming, it's been heading straight for us, no excuses...

[Aristotle]

Interesting to watch the forecast graphics loop.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Very Interesting!!! IF you notice on this graphic. The 5 day forecast was dead on. I mean DEAD on. The 5 day was exactly as called from the starting point.

[KWT]

If people stay in the keys with a 3/4 heading right at them would , IMO, be a little on the foolish side, the surge wouldd be a big worry even if Ike remains a small hurricane.

Eyewall really opening up on the western side now.

[gtsmith]

If people are going to wobble watch at least do it right.


I'm guessing shear has tilted the circulation so the center spot, where what remains of the eye is located, may be south of the actual LLC.

tolakrm...i think you have the old track in that pic...here's what i get on visible witht hetrack on

[Ivanhater]

Track is downright scary!