ATL: IKE Discussion

[gboudx]

jeff has an update today.

Dangerous hurricane to approach FL early next week.

Current:

Visible and IR images suggest a WSW motion has commenced…a little early and Ike will miss the 18Z NHC forecast point to the south. Additionally the satellite suggest moderate NE wind shear is greatly restricting outflow to the north of the cyclone and the CDO has become thin to the north and limited. The eye has become cloud filled and T numbers suggest Ike has weakened since yesterday with sustained winds now around 125mph.

Track:

Large scale and strong ridge of high pressure has built in N of Ike resulting in a WSW motion…in fact looking at water vapor images Ike may begin moving even SW over the next 2 days as this ridge builds in behind Hanna. The global models are in decent agreement on a W to WSW track with the UKMET being more to the north and the GFDL far to the south with the GFS and HWRF in between. The long term track greatly hinges on the position of the SW ATL ridge and how strong this ridge is and how far SW and W it builds behind Hanna. Current suggestions are that the ridge will be stronger as indicated by the further NW of Hanna overnight and the earlier onset of a WSW motion by Ike. NHC forecast track may need some additional S and W adjustment as they are near the NE side of the guidance cluster.

For now will begin to entertain the idea of a large and dangerous hurricane moving through the southern Bahamas late this weekend and toward Cuba or S FL early next week. Potential seems to be increasing for Ike to enter the Gulf of Mexico and will need to closely watch a progressive but fairly strong central US high around the middle of next week for steering thereafter.

Intensity:

Ike is fighting off NE wind shear on the SE side of the large SW ATL ridge. This shear has weakened the system in the last 24 hours and a continued gradual weakening is expected even while the system is over 80+ degree waters. After 48 hours the shear is forecast to relax and Ike will be crossing very warm SST’s. There appears to be little to prevent intensification and Ike should at least maintain if not regain major hurricane status as it moves toward the southern Bahamas. At days 4 and 5 the potential interaction with Cuba or S FL will guide the intensity, but it should be clearly noted that Ike will likely be a major hurricane approaching the FL Keys or S FL early next week.

[CourierPR]

After cleaning my glasses, I see that Ike just hit the forecast point near 23N and 63W. It also appears he may pass slightly north of the next point.

[tolakram]

tolakrm...i think you have the old track in that pic...here's what i get on visible witht hetrack on

Yes, I do have the old track, to show how far it missed the next forecast point. They update the track at each advisory with the first point being the current position. That's why it's always incredibly accurate. The new forecast track already takes this movement into account so it's not a big deal, just something to keep in mind as things shift around.

[KWT]

The new track from the NHC looks pretty close to what I think will happen, the current 12hr track requires the 260 motion that the NHC have noted to continue, no rwason why it won't though it will probably wobble about.

[Ivanhater]

IvanHater is probably hating this track. yikes!


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Lol..so true!

[Special K]

NHC's 11:00 a.m. advisory has this going W at 16 mph. At what time do we expect to see Ike heading more SW in line with the latest NHC track if the track proves itself accurate?

[MiamiensisWx]

After cleaning my glasses, I see that Ike just hit the forecast point near 23N and 63W. It also appears he may pass slightly north of the next point.

That's misleading, personally... latest overlays on the satellite imagery only show the recent 11 a.m. track, and the first point is the initialization. If you compare the 11 a.m. forecast points to 5 a.m., Ike is clearly moving S of the old forecast points.

[sprink52]

I feel better looking at the 11 AM advisory and discussion with the NHC moving the "skinny black line" south of the mainland.

Being a realist with regard to our ability to predict the path and intensity of these systems, I remain slightly dubious that we will be in the clear in South Florida.

As soon as Hanna clears out of here, I plan to continue my preparations, just in case things change for the worse.

[jrod]

I find it intersting that accuweather shows Ike being a threat to the southeast and is not centered on Florida. Only time will tell, by Sunday hopefully we will have a good idea of where this will make landfall and the only suprises will be a much weaker system.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&ocean=atlantic&storm=Ike&imagetype=move&stormNum=8

[KWT]

After cleaning my glasses, I see that Ike just hit the forecast point near 23N and 63W. It also appears he may pass slightly north of the next point.

Thats not a forecast point but the current location of Ike.

Current track very scary for the T&C, Inagua islands and also many of the Bahamas islands.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I find it intersting that accuweather shows Ike being a threat to the southeast and is not centered on Florida. Only time will tell, by Sunday hopefully we will have a good idea of where this will make landfall and the only suprises will be a much weaker system.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&ocean=atlantic&storm=Ike&imagetype=move&stormNum=8

im shocked they stuck with it at 11...

[HURAKAN]

People already flocking to Home Depot and other stores. Everyone is beginning to jump on hurricane mode.

[jlauderdal]

Im going to go ahead and say I think it will pass through the keys... I think I will be fine up here.. this happens all the time.. seems these storms steer away from S Fla

What are you talking about? Not the right attitude my friend.

Even if the storm hits the Keys we'll still get 40 to 50mph here is SE Florida.

at least, this is a 4 not wilma

[Just Joshing You]

I don't know what is scarier.. a Cat 3/4 moving into the gulf on a 1935 esque track, or the model runs.

[gtsmith]

tolakrm...i think you have the old track in that pic...here's what i get on visible witht hetrack on

Yes, I do have the old track, to show how far it missed the next forecast point. They update the track at each advisory with the first point being the current position. That's why it's always incredibly accurate. The new forecast track already takes this movement into account so it's not a big deal, just something to keep in mind as things shift around.

sorry about that...i came to that realisation that that was the point you were making after i posted my pic...

[Dean4Storms]

I know I don't like what I'm seeing either. Things could change but I'd say the Panhandle might take this one head on.

[MiamiensisWx]

I feel better looking at the 11 AM advisory and discussion with the NHC moving the "skinny black line" south of the mainland.

Being a realist with regard to our ability to predict the path and intensity of these systems, I remain slightly dubious that we will be in the clear in South Florida.

As soon as Hanna clears out of here, I plan to continue my preparations, just in case things change for the worse.

Uhh... I believe you should prudently focus on the cone. On another note, we've purchased several AA batteries (for our NOAA Hazardous Alert Radio) and canned soups/granola bars this morning to compliment our completed pre-season preps. We'll continue to make adjustments and select an alternative evacuation location (in addition to our Tampa/Cape Canaveral sites) throughout the day. We're already heavily stocked with food, First-Aid, water, et al...

By the way, our shutter anchors are attached (screwed in) to the walls, so they are readily available at all times.

[Broward Mom]

I have to pick up the anchors for my shutters as well, can't find them any where in the garage. Are those a standard size?

1) Shutter anchors should be IN YOUR WALL. You add screws/wingnuts/whatever your set up is with the panels. THOSE should be in your garage. We've had anchors pop out of the wall (one panel was found 4 houses down after Wilma) but we're the exception.

If you do need anchors, take in one from your house to compare - there's at least 3 different sizes. And beware - our two local Home Depots have never sold them (no clue why) - your local Mom & Pop hardware store is a better bet.

And when doing some research i found this (http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.as ... lang=en-US). And due to overwhelming response it will not be shipped until about 10 days. I never imagined something like that existed, that takes food from a can to a whole new level.

Such a waste of money. If you're set on having a bucket, BUY one (or a sealed trash can) and buy the food YOU LIKE for a lot less cash. These emergency cans make no sense to me.

FYI of the day? Kellogg's strawberry Pop-Tarts are the #1 purchased grocery item before hurricanes. (Seriously!)

[ConvergenceZone]

I find it intersting that accuweather shows Ike being a threat to the southeast and is not centered on Florida. Only time will tell, by Sunday hopefully we will have a good idea of where this will make landfall and the only suprises will be a much weaker system.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&ocean=atlantic&storm=Ike&imagetype=move&stormNum=8

I honestly can't undestand why they would only call this a cat2 on that path

[Blown Away]

There is no science behind this theory. But traditionally here in SFL if a Hurricane from the E or ESE landfalls south of Miami they usually go farther W than the Panhandle. When a Hurricane landfalls N of Miami it's usually in a recurve mode and recurves NW then N into the Peninsula. If the NHC track begins to flatten out a more W track into the GOM may happen. If the next track bends up into the Peninsula it would not take much of an angle to bring the eye back to the EC of Florida. Pins and needles!!