ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Ptarmigan]

I think Edouard will be a strong TS to Cat. 1 hurricane of 70 knots at most. It has grown quite a bit also.

[stevetampa33614]

Ok what the hell. Did GOES crash into an old Soviet Satelitte like sputnik or something. I havent seen any new Sat images. Where are you guys seeing these?

[dwg71]

can someone post a link to another good sat. loop other than the defunct nhc site.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe it is slowly becoming better organized. So we still have to watch for a possible hurricane. Anyways I can't wait for the recon.

[vaffie]

can someone post a link to another good sat. loop other than the defunct nhc site.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[bayoubebe]

Does the fact that some of Ed(like bands) has moved over land into Louisiana weaken the system any?

[wxman57]

chances of a hurricane, while not unrealistic, are only about 5-10% now. I do not see a scenario where this exceeds 70KT

Tell you what, after Humberto last year I'd go a good bit higher on this storm with 18 more hours over water temps near 90 degrees. I had 50% on my last forecast. We've been going 75 mph since yesterday for landfall. See no reason to change. However, any 75 mph winds would be in a tiny area offshore. No such winds over land. It would only be a hurricane in name only, really.

I still can't believe the NHC has been forecasting 70 mph winds prior to landfall and no hurricane warning. They must not want to trigger an evacuation, maybe?

Just plotted the 00Z models. Threw out NAM and NOGAPS, kept the better consensus models, HWRF, and GFDL. Tight consensus for Galveston Bay.

[cycloneye]

[txag2005]

When is the next recon going in?

[wxman57]

Even if it makes hurricane strength, I don't think any obs will register over around 65 sustained.

Is this because the NHC would make a mistake in overstating the winds or that the measurement instrument would be flawed?

It's because the winds NHC forecasts are for over water only. Surface friction reduces winds considerably over land.

[stevetampa33614]

When is the next recon going in?

midnight EST

[vaffie]

I just can't believe that the center is projected to go over Houston exactly.

[Kennethb]

ULL to the SW may be causing some shear from the south, making the appearance of north jog. The ULL as it pulls away may allow for the upper level conditions to be come more favorable for intensification as it nears the coast in the morning. Any north jog will be I expect will be replaced with the forcasted WNW motion.

[Bailey1777]

Now thats what you call a tight model consensus.

[Aric Dunn]

I mean come on right now it looks like eyebrow on radar.. LOL

the whole southern part has lost all conveciton ..

the only thing that is interesting is the fact that the band on the north side keeps intensifying and developing more banding.. this storm is strange..

just like this guy.

[Texashawk]

I still say this is the best-looking 45 MPH tropical storm I have ever seen in my life. Any argument??

[marcus B]

her is a link for another satellite. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

No argument there Texashawk, and that is why I think they will upgrade this to 50 or 55mph at the 10pm advisory (especially given the recon data).

[RL3AO]

When is the next recon going in?

Take off at 11pm CDT.

[hurrican19]

I sure hope for the Austin area's sake, that this thing goes just south of them, that would give them the best chance of rain, which is very desperately needed over there.