ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[hwego7]

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/70526?showanimation=yes&mapregion=us_gls_closeradar_plus_usen

From looking at this radar in motion, don't look like the center of the storm has moved any, and definitely looks like the storms are wrapping around the LLC. So I think when RECON goes in and investigate, we will have a high end TS or min. Hurricane. I say pressure around 989 mb and Surface winds around 60 Kts with Flight Level winds closer to 80 Kts. This of course is just in my humble opinion.

I always enjoy your forecasts. 60kts would be exactly what the NHC is thinking as well, albeit a bit sooner.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/70526?showanimation=yes&mapregion=us_gls_closeradar_plus_usen

From looking at this radar in motion, don't look like the center of the storm has moved any, and definitely looks like the storms are wrapping around the LLC. So I think when RECON goes in and investigate, we will have a high end TS or min. Hurricane. I say pressure around 989 mb and Surface winds around 60 Kts with Flight Level winds closer to 80 Kts. This of course is just in my humble opinion.

I respect everyones opinion but I have to say wow. Pretty bold forecast. I just don't see that in light of the radar and satellite presentation. Doesn't look good to me. But I could be wrong.

[Aric Dunn]

i have done a rough center fix as it gets a little closer to the radar site ..

at about 28.6n 98.0w

[WhitherWeather]

1. The dry air was an issue earlier, and I correctly implied that it would "stunt" Edouard's intensification to certain degrees. However, the dry air is much less significant than earlier. Check the local soundings and SKEW-T plots (such as Lake Charles, LA) as of 18Z and compare them to 12Z. The mid level moisture is increasing, while the dry air at the low levels within the boundary layer is mixing out now (at last). Earlier, convection failed to develop and sustain itself over the LLC; tonight is a different story. This TC is likely slowly intensifying now, unlike the situation throughout most of the day.

2. Respectfully, please see response to #1.

3. Remember that tropical cyclones rely on latent heat to support their development and intensification. Edouard is currently over very warm SSTs and recently passed over deep oceanic heat content within the western portion of the Gulf Loop Current. The 26 C isotherm is relatively deep in Edouard's vicinity as well. Note that Edouard will not pass over the cooler SSTs, which are located well SOUTH of Galveston. The near shore SSTs will be warmer in the portion of Gulf from slightly south of Galveston to the Golden Triangle and coast of SW Louisiana. Edouard will make landfall within this region over or slightly NE of the entrance to Galveston Bay. The strong convection and small inner core will aid more greater releases of latent heat, while the increasingly unstable boundary layer will aid more rapid ascent of parcels. With minimal shear and less ML dry air, this supports gradual intensification. Additionally, Edouard will not be crawling at Dolly's rate, and it definitely won't stall. Steering does NOT support a Dolly redux, so upwelling will likely not be a greater issue with Edouard as it moves into the shallower coastal waters. Edouard is a more compact system in terms of aereal extent than Dolly as well, for what it's worth.

4. Please consider the changing thermodynamic environment. A few hours can make a big difference, as we are observing in this case.

5. The upper low has been enhancing ventilation and divergence, as well as outflow. It will continue to aid Edouard in this case, especially as northerly shear has diminished within the past 24 hours. Edouard is now UNDER the H5-H85 ridging.

Thank you for such a clear, well-constructed, literate analysis supported by data and logic.

Posts like yours make wading through—well, some of the "other stuff"—all worth it.

WhitherWeather

P.S. And a personal special thanks for not once saying "alot."

[Steve]

???98.0w

[Chacor]

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/70526?showanimation=yes&mapregion=us_gls_closeradar_plus_usen

From looking at this radar in motion, don't look like the center of the storm has moved any, and definitely looks like the storms are wrapping around the LLC. So I think when RECON goes in and investigate, we will have a high end TS or min. Hurricane. I say pressure around 989 mb and Surface winds around 60 Kts with Flight Level winds closer to 80 Kts. This of course is just in my humble opinion.

I always enjoy your forecasts. 60kts would be exactly what the NHC is thinking as well, albeit a bit sooner.

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/70526?showanimation=yes&mapregion=us_gls_closeradar_plus_usen

From looking at this radar in motion, don't look like the center of the storm has moved any, and definitely looks like the storms are wrapping around the LLC. So I think when RECON goes in and investigate, we will have a high end TS or min. Hurricane. I say pressure around 989 mb and Surface winds around 60 Kts with Flight Level winds closer to 80 Kts. This of course is just in my humble opinion.

I respect everyones opinion but I have to say wow. Pretty bold forecast. I just don't see that in light of the radar and satellite presentation. Doesn't look good to me. But I could be wrong.

We're talking about a self-admitted wish-caster here (he admitted it earlier in this thread). Please, please, please take all amateur "forecasts" with a pinch of salt.

[hwego7]

i have done a rough center fix as it gets a little closer to the radar site ..

at about 28.6n 98.0w

92w you mean?

[vaffie]

98.0w

98W is like austin

[Aric Dunn]

i have done a rough center fix as it gets a little closer to the radar site ..

at about 28.6n 98.0w

92w you mean?

yeah .. oops 92

[wxman57]

i have done a rough center fix as it gets a little closer to the radar site ..

at about 28.6n 98.0w

I believe you meant 92.0. I was estimating 28.5N/92.1W. But there's nothing visible there on radar. Convection is north of the center and the tops near the center are below the radar beam.

Oh, and last night's 10pm track had the center near 28.7N/92.1W at 9pm this evening. Landfall was central GLS Bay.

[Derek Ortt]

I think you're too far north, Aric

[wxman57]

I think you're too far north, Aric

What do you think, Derek? Center position? Landfall?

[Aric Dunn]

i have done a rough center fix as it gets a little closer to the radar site ..

at about 28.6n 98.0w

I believe you meant 92.0. I was estimating 28.5N/92.1W. But there's nothing visible there on radar. Convection is north of the center and the tops near the center are below the radar beam.

right nothing very discernable, just a few blips that are almost trackable..

[Derek Ortt]

chances of a hurricane, while not unrealistic, are only about 5-10% now. I do not see a scenario where this exceeds 70KT

Tell you what, after Humberto last year I'd go a good bit higher on this storm with 18 more hours over water temps near 90 degrees. I had 50% on my last forecast. We've been going 75 mph since yesterday for landfall. See no reason to change. However, any 75 mph winds would be in a tiny area offshore. No such winds over land. It would only be a hurricane in name only, really.

I still can't believe the NHC has been forecasting 70 mph winds prior to landfall and no hurricane warning. They must not want to trigger an evacuation, maybe?

Just plotted the 00Z models. Threw out NAM and NOGAPS, kept the better consensus models, HWRF, and GFDL. Tight consensus for Galveston Bay.

One major difference though between Edouard and Humberto

Humberto was downstream of an upper trough. Prime spot for QG enhancement

[Aric Dunn]

I think you're too far north, Aric

What do you think, Derek? Center position? Landfall?

yeah would you like to elaborate.. it cant be off by that much lol.... what are you happy with 28.34567

[physicx07]

I think the 29.7N/92.1W is a mistype. I just checked and it's actually close to where you guys are fixing it now. 29.7 is quite far north, around LA coast.

i have done a rough center fix as it gets a little closer to the radar site ..

at about 28.6n 98.0w

I believe you meant 92.0. I was estimating 28.5N/92.1W. But there's nothing visible there on radar. Convection is north of the center and the tops near the center are below the radar beam.

Oh, and last night's 10pm track had the center near 29.7N/92.1W at 9pm this evening. Landfall was central GLS Bay.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Edit: Nevermind. That information was not accurate. 29.7N would be inland in LA.

[americanrebel]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Once again, for everyone that doesn't like my forecast, go ahead and skip this post. Everyone should know by now I am the one that is all doom and gloom. Since I have been on here I have learned a lot, but I also understand Mother Nature, and you can never play games and try to guess everything she does.

This is what I am thinking looking at the radar and satellites, Edouard will be making landfall in abut 12 hours as a Cat 1 hurricane around Creole, La. So I will most likely be driving through the worse part of his stuff in the morning around 6 am my time, coming from Crowley going to Abbeville.

Once again, this is my opinion, and if you don't like that is fine, but I know some people think the same way as me, but I am not afraid to say it here.

[physicx07]

Well here's what I got from the archives:

INITIAL 04/0300Z 28.1N 88.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 28.2N 89.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 28.6N 91.9W 50 KT

I think the 29.7N/92.1W is a mistype. I just checked and it's actually close to where you guys are fixing it now. 29.7 is quite far north, around LA coast.

29.7N is where it was forecast to be right now as of last night's forecast. Basically the system is south of where it was supposed to be right now based on the forecast from 24 hours ago.

[gboudx]

I hope any shifts to the east will put Ed closer to DFW. We need the rain badly too. And a break from the hell heat.