ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

well this may sound corny but I think we should have "FAIth" not "FAYth" that this system does not do any harm.

[KWT]

The LLC appears to have gone as others have said, this is a big sign that a new one is going to likely form further east under the deep convection where the MLC is still turning away.

As other shave said this has got a cracking presentation now, esp if the center does form under that convection.

[MiamiensisWx]

from what this thing is now starting to look like, what do you all think about what and when we should expect here in St. Maarten?
we are at 18.1,63.1
Right now everything is very hot and humid and cloudy and incredibly still.

I would expect some strong, gusty winds as the thunderstorms pass over Sint Maarten, with possible gusts near TS force.

[OuterBanker]

Alright, I keep hearing about the rather nasty Euro. Anyone have a link?

Not really worried about Euro anyway, Derek doesn't ever use it I understand

[Lowpressure]

If the LLC indeed forms under the deep convection and becomes stacked, all other factors seem to be in place for a rapidly deepening storm. All in the Northern Islands should really monitor this as watches/warnings could potentially come out quickly later today. CYCLONEYE is watching this with great interest in that area.

[cycloneye]

If the LLC indeed forms under the deep convection and becomes stacked, all other factors seem to be in place for a rapidly deepening storm. All in the Northern Islands should really monitor this as watches/warnings could potentially come out quickly later today. CYCLONEYE is watching this with great interest in that area.

CYCLONEYE is watching this with great interest in that area

The good thing about this is that we need the rains badly as Puerto Rico is going to a drought.However,I dont want to see rain with wind,but I am prepared for anything mother nature brings.

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hello all...just because I am going back to work next week, and wont be able to be on here like I usually am, I would like to know if SETX will be in trouble at all if this storm moves west into the GOM. Any possibilities of that at all? or is it too soon to tell? Thanks...

No place North of Belize is safe on the Atlantic Coast, but, unofficially, there is nothing to suggest any impact into the Wstern Gulf of Mexico.

Somehwere between the mid 90s Erin track and a Floyd track, maybe even a Gloria track, if I had to guess.

Did I mention I'm not a professional, and this is very unofficial, and you should listen to LCH or HGX NWS offices and NHC for official weather forecasts?

[alienstorm]

18.0 61.0 Definetly there is the MLC and the new LLC is forming, we shall see it start cranking pretty soon. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico in for it....

[KWT]

Yep 61W is about where its at presently I'd guess, the MLC is certainly in that region.

This time yesterday convection was at its strongest and it started to weaken in 3-4hrs time, lets see if the same happens this time round.

[MiamiensisWx]

Developing new LLC may move just N of due west... it will likely not move due west per steering at H7-H85. However, it will definitely impact the Leewards and Puerto Rico.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Derek Ortt]

not sure this is clearing PR, or the DR, unless this forms north of about 18.5

[Ed Mahmoud]

Unofficially, staring at visible loop, possible weak LLC near Guadeloupe (how thoughtful of The Creator to give that island a distinctive shape) is dissipating, and a new one is in the process of forming under the deep convection.

[KWT]

It will be close Derek, I think it may well end up over PR and also possibly the northern tip of DR as well.

[HURAKAN]

[storms in NC]

This is out of RDU NWC only the last part didn't want to take up the page.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
IF THE TRENDS OF THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE... WE SHOULD HAVE AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK.
&&

[gatorcane]

another nice burst of convection in the last hour or so:

[KWT]

I agree Ed ther eprobably is going to be a new low forming in that deeper convection around 61W whilst the old one, as you say is clearly on the way out now.

[bvigal]

from what this thing is now starting to look like, what do you all think about what and when we should expect here in St. Maarten?
we are at 18.1,63.1
Right now everything is very hot and humid and cloudy and incredibly still.

I would expect some strong, gusty winds as the thunderstorms pass over Sint Maarten, with possible gusts near TS force.

35kt gusts in tstorms aren't that unusual. I think much higher brief gusts are possible (40-50mph), and from the "wrong" direction, if any of the tall convection passes over. Looking at sats, it's hard to imagine some won't. Msbee, if you know any boat owners who may not be aware, might give them a heads up - extra lines!!

I'll sure agree with the "hot" part, it's been miserable here too! And the mosquitos have been fierce - looks that isn't likely to improve at all in the short term, LOL.

edit: OK, that's it. When I have to hit "Submit" more than 3 times to get something posted, I'm outta here.

[x-y-no]

not sure this is clearing PR, or the DR, unless this forms north of about 18.5

Yeah, a run up the norther coast of both is looking more likely.

Could be a bad rain/flood event, especially for the hills in northern DR.