Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Frank P]

I can honestly say after losing everything I owned as a kid in Camille...

Speaking of.... You realize that it was almost exactly this time in the evening on Sunday, the 17th, that STUFF REALLY STARTED HITTING THE FAN on the coast!!!! Can't believe 39 years has passed since then!! Amazingly, though, it seems like just yesterday...

How could I forget that... about this time the surge was in our front yard and about to enter our house.. we got about 4 feet of water from the surge on the east end of town that night... Katrina put about 9 feet of water in the same house... I had my share of catastrophic storms ... no mass

[deltadog03]

deltadog03 wrote:

Well, some of you need to learn how to read models and wonder why they are doing what they are doing. In other words.. I looked at the 18z runs of both of them. They both, initialized ok...HWRF better.

Non-met question: how do you determine if an initialization is good? Is it because of the location only, or location/intensity/other factors? thanks

Location, Strength, surrounding enviroment.

[Frank P]

I can honestly say after losing everything I owned as a kid in Camille...

Speaking of.... You realize that it was almost exactly this time in the evening on Sunday, the 17th, that STUFF REALLY STARTED HITTING THE FAN on the coast!!!! Can't believe 39 years has passed since then!! Amazingly, though, it seems like just yesterday...

Man, hasn't the time gone by quickly. Hard to believe that it's been that long already. Darn I'm getting old.

Yeah but old is better than the alternative...

also helps cure you of -removed- too...

[Javlin]

I can honestly say after losing everything I owned as a kid in Camille...

Speaking of.... You realize that it was almost exactly this time in the evening on Sunday, the 17th, that STUFF REALLY STARTED HITTING THE FAN on the coast!!!! Can't believe 39 years has passed since then!! Amazingly, though, it seems like just yesterday...

I still remember it like yesterday myself.You call me ignorant but what is it exactly over the Great Lakes area that has to move out?I mean that seems to be the difference at least one thing between the W models and the E ones.Nogaps has it gone in like 36hrs high filling in the the GFS take 72hrs.I know its some kind of low but it does not show up on WV like your usual tight circulation and it so high in latitude?

[Bgator]

When do the 00z models begin?

[boca]

When do the 00z models begin?

About 11:30pm

[ROCK]

If she has indeed deepened some to below 1000mb.....heres your weakness.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[Canelaw99]

Yowza....that would pretty much leave her hitting the keys and/or southern tip of the peninsula for the most part....verrrryyyyyy interesting....

[frederic79]

Question about the trough for pro mets or seasoned weather folks on this board. I was looking at NHC projections from 48 hours ago. It had Fay, at the current longitude, well north of Cuba and moving NNW near Key West. Okay, obviously that didn't happen but given Fay's current location, what happens if it takes awhile longer for Fay to gain significant latitude due to a potential weak steering flow and the trough actually does have time lift out or become inverted/tilted. Could this be a game changer? Thoughts anyone?

[AL Chili Pepper]

Its amazing how some just really want a TS/CANE to plow right there location. Ok, For the GFDL lovers.... & Even the HWRF, well, I can tell you that you can throw BOTH of those models in the trash right now from the 18z runs. Why Chris? Why? Well, some of you need to learn how to read models and wonder why they are doing what they are doing. In other words.. I looked at the 18z runs of both of them. They both, initialized ok...HWRF better. However, thats when they both went downhill quickly. GFDL wanted to show her as just about a hurricane at 8pm tonight. Sorry, wrong answer. The HWRF wanted to make this a very strong TS and have it on the CUBA coast (or very close) by 8pm tonight or so. Wrong, answer. So, you really need to look at things like this when you see a model run. Sure, there NOT going to be perfect, but GFDL and HWRF, if memory serves correctly have this EXITING CUBA by 12z Tomorrow morning. I am not sure that happens....(could though) Bottom line is they are BOTH too strong and way too quickly in the short term. Hope this helps!!!

great post delta

I can honestly say after losing everything I owned as a kid in Camille and everything I owned including my house during Katrina that I NEVER want to see another hurricane any where near me....

I will NEVER live in a FEMA trailer again..

I agree. For a while there after Ivan and Katrina I was seriously considering moving to Denver.

[Jason_B]

No need to worry anywhere west of Apalachicola now that Fay is turning NW and a SW Florida landfall looking certain.

[Bane]

No need to worry anywhere west of Apalachicola now that Fay is turning NW and a SW Florida landfall looking certain.

and you base this belief with what type of support to make such a bold and careless statement?

[ftolmsteen]

New forecast is in. Has it landfalling St.Pete/Clearwater.

Hmmm... I've seen this before.

[GreenSky]

No need to worry anywhere west of Apalachicola now that Fay is turning NW and a SW Florida landfall looking certain.

I believe that Ivanhater will disagree

Fay looks to be moving almost northwesterly at the time being

who knows where she will end up

[GreenSky]

Looking like Southeast Florida is in the clear...exception lower Keys

Sarasota northwards will probably see the worst weather....south of there looks like most of the destructive winds should stay offshore

Kind of funny though that Miami Dade county has canceled school though

[Mississippi Storm Magnet]

No need to worry anywhere west of Apalachicola now that Fay is turning NW and a SW Florida landfall looking certain.

I hope the thing goes Northeast and misses everyone, like it looks like it is trying to currently do.

Being a know-it-all doesn't make you popular; not that it seems like you care. -removed- will be cured after you lose it all someday. Frank P, Ixiolib, MGC, and HurryCane would probably agree.

[Ixolib]

Anybody know where can I find info on the NHC track/landfall error rate for 48 hours out? Or, if someone has that info, I'd appreciate it...

I know the NHC site provides info on the "cone" error for 3- and 5-day tracks, but I can't find the info on the actual landfall error, historically speaking.

[Canelaw99]

Looking like Southeast Florida is in the clear...exception lower Keys

Sarasota northwards will probably see the worst weather....south of there looks like most of the destructive winds should stay offshore

Kind of funny though that Miami Dade county has canceled school though

I respectfully disagree. As far as I'm concerned, until it has passed our longitude completely, I don't feel we're in the clear. The NHC 11pm discussion states it is moving NW and a Northerly turn/direction is expected over the next day or so. In order for it to miss Dade County altogether, it would have to move NW all the way over Cuba, and fairly far out into the Straits before the northerly turn commenced. Now, that would be great with us in Dade, but it's gonna be close....way too close IMO to say SE FL is in the clear.

[Jason_B]

No need to worry anywhere west of Apalachicola now that Fay is turning NW and a SW Florida landfall looking certain.

I hope the thing goes Northeast and misses everyone, like it looks like it is trying to currently do.

Being a know-it-all doesn't make you a popular; not that it seems like you care. -removed- will be cured after you lose it all someday. Frank P, Ixiolib, MGC, and HurryCane would probably agree.

NO -removed- here, just going by the obvious consensus...I don't even live in the part of the state that Fay is heading. -removed- would be hyping up outlier garbage models like most in this thread are hopelessly doing.

[GreenSky]

No need to worry anywhere west of Apalachicola now that Fay is turning NW and a SW Florida landfall looking certain.

I hope the thing goes Northeast and misses everyone, like it looks like it is trying to currently do.

Being a know-it-all doesn't make you a popular; not that it seems like you care. -removed- will be cured after you lose it all someday. Frank P, Ixiolib, MGC, and HurryCane would probably agree.

Mississippi, Fay is not trying to miss anyone.
It will make landfall in Cuba and most probably somewhere in Florida.
It seems that you are -removed- in your own way by saying that it "looks like it is" trying to miss "everyone". Not bad to wish good, but not good to give people a false sense of security either.

Let's stick to reality. Fay is NOT a fish storm nor does it look like it is going to miss making landfall somewhere in the Southeastern U.S. (Florida, maybe eventually Carolinas)