Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[TheRingo]

big shift east in the 0z nam from the 18z.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_s.shtml

[Evil Jeremy]

Looking like Southeast Florida is in the clear...exception lower Keys

Sarasota northwards will probably see the worst weather....south of there looks like most of the destructive winds should stay offshore

Kind of funny though that Miami Dade county has canceled school though

I respectfully disagree. As far as I'm concerned, until it has passed our longitude completely, I don't feel we're in the clear. The NHC 11pm discussion states it is moving NW and a Northerly turn/direction is expected over the next day or so. In order for it to miss Dade County altogether, it would have to move NW all the way over Cuba, and fairly far out into the Straits before the northerly turn commenced. Now, that would be great with us in Dade, but it's gonna be close....way too close IMO to say SE FL is in the clear.

I agree... with Canelaw99. We might not be in the cone now, but we could be in it again later, and all the winds are on the east side of the system, so even if it landfalls 100 miles away, we will still be getting TS force winds and heavy rain, especially with such a slow moving storm.

[GreenSky]

Looking like Southeast Florida is in the clear...exception lower Keys

Sarasota northwards will probably see the worst weather....south of there looks like most of the destructive winds should stay offshore

Kind of funny though that Miami Dade county has canceled school though

I respectfully disagree. As far as I'm concerned, until it has passed our longitude completely, I don't feel we're in the clear. The NHC 11pm discussion states it is moving NW and a Northerly turn/direction is expected over the next day or so. In order for it to miss Dade County altogether, it would have to move NW all the way over Cuba, and fairly far out into the Straits before the northerly turn commenced. Now, that would be great with us in Dade, but it's gonna be close....way too close IMO to say SE FL is in the clear.

Actually I agree with you. I was basing my opinion on old 5PM information! Just got back from some traveling

I made a wrong statement.

[Evil Jeremy]

big shift east in the 0z nam from the 18z.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_s.shtml

As unworthy as the NAM is, it gives me a reason to wishcast lol!

[Canelaw99]

Actually I agree with you. I was basing my opinion on old 5PM information! Just got back from some traveling

I made a wrong statement.

LOL No worries I was honestly surprised the NHC shifted as far west at 5 as they did. Will have to shift back east, IMO, at 5am or 11am at the latest based on what it's looking like now and the NW movement, etc. I know we were at Publix tonight buying some groceries (not prep stuff, just some food for the week) and no one was really stocking up. I saw more people stocking up yesterday on water, bleach, etc. I've had a feeling this one would sneak up on us, and I haven't shaken that feeling yet. Tomorrow morning will be telling, I think.

[SouthFLTropics]

We should see the GFS shortly...I'll be interested to see what it comes up with this time.

Personally based on viewing the water vapor loops I think we are going to see a minor shift to the right with a track between Everglades City and Fort Myers heading north towards Orlando. The steering flow appears to be evident with this track. Pay attention to the outflow from Fay and watch where it heads. I think this will give a good indication of movement.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SFT

[Recurve]

Anybody know where can I find info on the NHC track/landfall error rate for 48 hours out? Or, if someone has that info, I'd appreciate it...

I know the NHC site provides info on the "cone" error for 3- and 5-day tracks, but I can't find the info on the actual landfall error, historically speaking.

I believe that info gives the actual error -- says the cone is based on x amount (I think 2/3) of the actual error over a certain time period. Is that what you mean. I don't know if they give it numerically there, you might have to measure the cone.

[Mississippi Storm Magnet]

Mississippi, Fay is not trying to miss anyone.
It will make landfall in Cuba and most probably somewhere in Florida.
It seems that you are -removed- in your own way by saying that it "looks like it is" trying to miss "everyone". Not bad to wish good, but not good to give people a false sense of security either.

Let's stick to reality. Fay is NOT a fish storm nor does it look like it is going to miss making landfall somewhere in the Southeastern U.S. (Florida, maybe eventually Carolinas)

True. I "wish" there were no such thing as tropical systems. Haha! Then we wouldn't even have this forum, and I could have my old house back, 2.5 kids, etc. Ha!

[jinftl]

any chance that fay pulls an irene?

...irene emerged off of north coast of cuba and caught forecasters off guard by moving NNE (or did she reform her center?)...all the while hurricane warnings were up for west coast FL and tropical storm warnings/hurr. watches were up for SE FL...with a few hours lead time at most, hurr. warnings were posted for SE FL as Irene tracked through Miami-Dade, Broward, and emerged into the Atlantic off Palm Beach county...catching many folk on the road since alot of companies remained open.

We should see the GFS shortly...I'll be interested to see what it comes up with this time.

Personally based on viewing the water vapor loops I think we are going to see a minor shift to the right with a track between Everglades City and Fort Myers heading north towards Orlando. The steering flow appears to be evident with this track. Pay attention to the outflow from Fay and watch where it heads. I think this will give a good indication of movement.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SFT

[rockyman]

0z GFS running now

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[SouthFLTropics]

I remember that night well...I was having dinner at Outback Steakhouse in Stuart while squalls with 50+mph winds were hitting us. I got home just in time for the power to fail!

SFT

any chance that fay pulls an irene?

...irene emerged off of north coast of cuba and caught forecasters off guard by moving NNE (or did she reform her center?)...all the while hurricane warnings were up for west coast FL and tropical storm warnings/hurr. watches were up for SE FL...with a few hours lead time at most, hurr. warnings were posted for SE FL as Irene tracked through Miami-Dade, Broward, and emerged into the Atlantic off Palm Beach county...catching many folk on the road since alot of companies remained open.

We should see the GFS shortly...I'll be interested to see what it comes up with this time.

Personally based on viewing the water vapor loops I think we are going to see a minor shift to the right with a track between Everglades City and Fort Myers heading north towards Orlando. The steering flow appears to be evident with this track. Pay attention to the outflow from Fay and watch where it heads. I think this will give a good indication of movement.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SFT

[Bgator]

GFS 18 Hours out:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif

[Canelaw99]

I smell an eastward shift at 5am if the other models follow suit....just my opinion - not a professional by any stretch of the imagination LOL

[chris_fit]

[AdamFirst]

When do the other models come out, like the GDFL, Euro, etc.?

I imagine soon, probably

[boca]

When do the other models come out, like the GDFL, Euro, etc.?

I imagine soon, probably

I think the GFDL comes out about 2am if I'm not mistaken.

[SouthFLTropics]

When do the other models come out, like the GDFL, Euro, etc.?

I imagine soon, probably

GFDL should be around 2AM I believe Adam...I won't be awake to see it though...I'll take my suprises when I wake up at 5:00AM.

SFT

[Bocadude85]

did the gfs shift east?

[DESTRUCTION5]

did the gfs shift east?

BIGTIME

[Evil Jeremy]

did the gfs shift east?

Big time east. East enough to bring this inland SFL and to the Carolinas.