ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

The fact that the Bamm and LBAR models have it headed away from me gives me gas.

[stormhorn]

The fact that the Bamm and LBAR models have it headed away from me gives me gas.

Is that what I smell??

[AJC3]

The fact that the Bamm and LBAR models have it headed away from me gives me gas.

The only way LBAR would have Ike headed toward you is if it's initial position was near Cape Race.

[jlauderdal]

The fact that the Bamm and LBAR models have it headed away from me gives me gas.

The only way LBAR would have Ike headed toward you is if it's initial position was near Cape Race.

and there is another week of this at least, once it passes 80W im deleting my hurricane links and never coming back, at least for a few days, lol

[PTrackerLA]

As another poster said, I'm not taking these model runs too seriously until Ike can manage to clear Cuba. Land interactions can result in bizarre and erractic movements and it's simply too soon to know what will happen for sure. At this point, just go with the cone people!

OT: I finally took the boards off the door and opened some shutters in hope that it deflects Ike! The abandoned house look was getting just a little depressing .

[Serenity]

For those members who haved joined recently,the members that are rookies about this and some members who dont remember the times the next 18z run comes out,here they are:

18z GFS at 5:30 PM
18z GFDL at 7;30 PM
18z HWRF at 7:30 PM
18z UKMET (48 hours) at 6:00 PM

All times Eastern

Thank you for posting this for those of us who aren't familiar on when things are released.

What is the time pattern of release? Where is the easiest place to get all of this information if we want to monitor the models? Thank you again!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Given the last three model runs, it would seem Ike may head towards
Texas. But that is 5 days out, so the central GOM should still watch.
The extent of the ridge forecasted to be in place seems to favor a Western GOM/Texas landfall.

Now for any gulf coast residents that are feeling worried, the good news
for you is that the mountains of Cuba will likely disrupt the core
of Ike pretty significantly. But Cuba will get hit badly,
so I pray for Cuba. Hopefully the Cuban government has evacuated
all residents living in flood prone areas.

[Sabanic]

Given the last three model runs, it would seem Ike may head towards
Texas. But that is 5 days out, so the central GOM should still watch.
The extent of the ridge forecasted to be in place seems to favor a Western GOM/Texas landfall.

Now for any gulf coast residents that are feeling worried, the good news
for you is that the mountains of Cuba will likely disrupt the core
of Ike pretty significantly. But Cuba will get hit badly,
so I pray for Cuba. Hopefully the Cuban government has evacuated
all residents living in flood prone areas.

You're right. Everyone still needs to watch Ike closely

[KWT]

Quite a few of those models, esp the globals are heading towards Texas it seems, lets see if the 18z GFS concurs...

[Stratosphere747]

Early part of the 18z GFS keeps it just along the coast -

[Dean4Storms]

The 18Z initializes Ike well to the SW of that Island he raked earlier.

And add....keeps him due west from there, a difference of 50-75 miles.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The NAM says cruising due West, aimed at Mexico.

[canetracker]

The 18Z initializes Ike well to the SW of that Island he raked earlier.

And add....keeps him due west from there, a difference of 50-75 miles.

I noticed the same thing. How good can it be if it initialized wrong?

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 18Z initializes Ike well to the SW of that Island he raked earlier.

And add....keeps him due west from there, a difference of 50-75 miles.

I thought that island the 18Z GFS has Ike just West of at 2 pm EDT was the one it passed over earlier today...



Initialized a tad weak, but IIRC that is a grid scale issue.

Edit because pasted wrong image...

[Dean4Storms]

The 18Z initializes Ike well to the SW of that Island he raked earlier.

And add....keeps him due west from there, a difference of 50-75 miles.

I thought that island the 18Z GFS has Ike just West of at 2 pm EDT was the one it passed over earlier today...



Initialized a tad weak, but IIRC that is a grid scale issue.

Edit because pasted wrong image...

Actually it initializes Ike to the SW of that Island from what I see.

[jlauderdal]

The NAM says cruising due West, aimed at Mexico.

the good old NAM getting alot of play today with you and vortex, nam has to be looked at

[Dean4Storms]

Taking him due west through 36 hours, looks like a bad start.

[Stratosphere747]

It was initialized just to the W of the island. Looks just about where it should have been.

[canetracker]

Well bad initialization of this run of the GFS means bad outcome does'nt it?

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Moving NW off W Cuba