ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[CourierPR]

Aric, if your apparent center fix holds it would appear that it would stay just north of PR.

[gtsmith]

So any talk of land impact is inmature at this time. Right now it seems as Puerto Rico and the SE Bahamas are the ones to be impacted.

What? Did you not just contradict yourself there? You say it's premature to talk about landfall then you talk about landfall...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hmmmmm

I leave for NYC tomorrow at 7am. I wonder if my flight out of San Juan will be cancelled or delayed......

What you guys think?

I personally think your flight will leave tomorrw on time..

[Sanibel]

I would guess its slow forward speed would result in a lift just north of the islands (even though it looks like it is heading right for them).


"Fay" is a scary feminine name like a killer.

[sweetpea]

I am going to rant briefly:

I think that NHC has been slow dealing with this system in terms of releasing Special Statements,Calling the NWS offices of the area,posting watches and warnings and not upgrading it this morning.Here in Puerto Rico,normal life is going on,with schools,goverment working etc.Being the system so close to the islands in the Northern Leewards BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico,I think it has been prudent for NHC to issue watches and warnings for the residents to prepare.

You are so right. I just spoke to my father who lives over by Ponce and he was like what storm? "I thought we were just going to get some rain" I told him no, it most likely will be a little more than just some rain and to go ahead and get prepared.

[Ola]

Hmmmmm

I leave for NYC tomorrow at 7am. I wonder if my flight out of San Juan will be cancelled or delayed......

What you guys think?

I personally think your flight will leave tomorrw on time..

Talk about bad timing.....

Why you think it will be able to leave on time? IT woont come close to us? It will be weak? Or it will take longer to arrive here?

Im really wondering about timing.

[Steve]

Information in this post is the opinion and/or rhetorical questions of the poster only. Do not rely on anything you read below:

>>But steering currents will be very weak at that time. I wouldn't rule out a possible impact in south Florida early next week, but I'm not forecasting it now. Confidence in the timing of that northerly turn is on the low side.

Yeah, scratching my head. With the exception of the CMC, NOGAPS and UKMET (00z runs, haven't looked at the early guideance for the 12z runs yet), most of the other globals, tropicals and subsidiaries are going with that just east of Florida and stall or creep north scenario. So what happens - a trough lifts out with the low forming off the east coast and a weak surface high comes down out of Canada. Immediately thereafter, another one comes down and sets up the block if the storm is sitting off the east coast in the vicinity of the Bahamas. That's where the trouble comes in. What happens next? Does it sit and intensify and then maybe make a final destination (SFL, GA, SC, NC), does it migrate west (retrograde) across south Florida and into the Eastern Gulf? Does it just sit there waiting for a player thereafter? Really, really difficult to see at this point as there are reasonable arguments for any of the various 4-5 day solutions.

So if we look out to the WPAC at 11NONAME, it appears the JTWC and NRL are recurving the system across southern South Korea a little southeast of Taegu. This would teleconnect to a recurve or northern movement at or near Bahamas/East Florida with some troughiness off the US East Coast in the 5-7 day period. 11NONAME is not a particularly significant system, so the teleconnection may not mean a whole lot. Additionally, it started much farther south, but it does indicate the shape of the ridge. Ultimately Japan most closely teleconnects to the NC Coast, and this is several degrees farther west.

Just a way out of left field call at this point, but it would appear that unless things change drastically, my focus would be in the region of SE Florida, the Bahamian Kingdom to the SC/NC border and then we'll see.

Does a big Western Atlantic ridge build in after? Does the Canadian surface high pressure come down and set up a block? Looking toward Saturday for some better answers.

Steve

[tolakram]

I love the shadows coming off the islands. Are those mountains or clouds over land?

Oh and yea, 92L looks impressive too.

[Normandy]

Very deep convection now occurring, if recon does not find a closed circulation later today this could go down as one of the most impressive MLC's ever

[KWT]

Little clouds I'd guess Hurakan. Still looks very good, northern convection has weakened a touch but the southern part is still going strong at the moment in a decent set-up.

Also looks like its upto 18N, so its going to be very close as to whether it'll clear PR or not, 50-50 really but as it probably won't be more then a low end TS land interaction may not be a big deal.

[tolakram]

Masters has updated his blog:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

[Sanibel]

I think the surface center might be under the center burst if you look at the inflowing mid-surface bands on the SE edge of the CDO.

Puerto Rico should get a good brush.

[Aric Dunn]

I think the surface center might be under the center burst if you look at the inflowing mid-surface bands on the SE edge of the CDO.

Puerto Rico should get a good brush.

[Javlin]

I think the surface center might be under the center burst if you look at the inflowing mid-surface bands on the SE edge of the CDO.

Puerto Rico should get a good brush.

Have you noticed the little vortice out there at 63n 18w

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Cryomaniac]

I am going to rant briefly:

I think that NHC has been slow dealing with this system in terms of releasing Special Statements,Calling the NWS offices of the area,posting watches and warnings and not upgrading it this morning.Here in Puerto Rico,normal life is going on,with schools,goverment working etc.Being the system so close to the islands in the Northern Leewards BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico,I think it has been prudent for NHC to issue watches and warnings for the residents to prepare.

I'm under the impression that they can't issue watches or warnings on something that isn't officially a Tropical Cyclone.

[Sanibel]

The NE islands have calm winds meaning a weak west wind is cancelling the normal tradewind.

[KWT]

Not much on Qscat really bar a little interesting kink down around 16N but there is little down there to suggest thats anything worth paying attention to. Also that does back up the idea we don't have a LLC which suggests one is probably forming now.

[Aric Dunn]

I think the surface center might be under the center burst if you look at the inflowing mid-surface bands on the SE edge of the CDO.

Puerto Rico should get a good brush.

Have you noticed the little vortice out there at 63n 18w

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

i sort of see it .. its really small and dropping WSW which leads me to believe that its rotating around a larger ill defined center near where i circled and the previous position estimate was..

[msbee]

I am going to rant briefly:

I think that NHC has been slow dealing with this system in terms of releasing Special Statements,Calling the NWS offices of the area,posting watches and warnings and not upgrading it this morning.Here in Puerto Rico,normal life is going on,with schools,goverment working etc.Being the system so close to the islands in the Northern Leewards BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico,I think it has been prudent for NHC to issue watches and warnings for the residents to prepare.

that's a good rant, Luis. You are so right. people need to be aware of any possibility. ..especially in PR where you are so prone to flash floods..
I have seen systems weaker than this one cause a lot of problems in the islands especially in low lying areas.
Barbara

[Ed Mahmoud]

***Double Post Alert- in main and model run 92L threads***

500 mb heights from AccuWX PPV 6Z GFDL outer grid suggest trough that starts turning this North is lifting out the last 24 hours before hour 126, so the turn North off Florida may not be the beginning of a fish storm (well, probably not a real fish parts of the Lesser and Greater Antilles and Bahamas to begin with). Per my amateur and unofficial interpretation of the 6Z GFDL