H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[brunota2003]

AHH! They're running away from the area! Must of found something off in the distance they wanted to investigate Looks like they're turning around now, though.

[Aric Dunn]

lol well there are some west winds..

well out ahead of the convection

trying to figure out why they went so far out there.. this does not do much since it at 1kt

174600 1343N 08020W 9921 00145 0087 +245 +200 280001 001 999 999 03
174630 1341N 08020W 9923 00143 0086 +249 +200 206001 001 999 999 03
174700 1339N 08020W 9922 00143 0085 +249 +200 208001 001 999 999 03
174730 1337N 08019W 9922 00143 0086 +250 +200 230001 001 999 999 03
174800 1335N 08019W 9918 00146 0086 +250 +200 262001 001 999 999 03
174830 1333N 08019W 9922 00143 0086 +249 +200 262001 001 999 999 03
$$

lol

[Brent]

lol well there are some west winds..

well out ahead of the convection

174600 1343N 08020W 9921 00145 0087 +245 +200 280001 001 999 999 03
174630 1341N 08020W 9923 00143 0086 +249 +200 206001 001 999 999 03
174700 1339N 08020W 9922 00143 0085 +249 +200 208001 001 999 999 03
174730 1337N 08019W 9922 00143 0086 +250 +200 230001 001 999 999 03
174800 1335N 08019W 9918 00146 0086 +250 +200 262001 001 999 999 03
174830 1333N 08019W 9922 00143 0086 +249 +200 262001 001 999 999 03
$$

lol

1 whole knot!

[Aric Dunn]

lol well there are some west winds..

well out ahead of the convection

174600 1343N 08020W 9921 00145 0087 +245 +200 280001 001 999 999 03
174630 1341N 08020W 9923 00143 0086 +249 +200 206001 001 999 999 03
174700 1339N 08020W 9922 00143 0085 +249 +200 208001 001 999 999 03
174730 1337N 08019W 9922 00143 0086 +250 +200 230001 001 999 999 03
174800 1335N 08019W 9918 00146 0086 +250 +200 262001 001 999 999 03
174830 1333N 08019W 9922 00143 0086 +249 +200 262001 001 999 999 03
$$

lol

1 whole knot!

exactly made me laugh

[HURAKAN]

The question then is, why would you have west winds (even thought it's in knot) in front of the wave?



One Knut!

[cooter]

Ran across this blog and was wondering what you guys do for a living? I am going going on a cruise the 27th leaving from Galveston...going to Jamaica, cayman, and cozmel. Just wondering if my trip will be altered and how big the waves might be in the gulf when we do cruise. Thanks

[Brent]

what the heck is recon doing at 12.5N?

Looking for west winds?

They aren't finding much in the way of them though.

[curtadams]

A tropical storm where you'd have to wet your finger to be sure? Things that make you go hmmm!

They veered west because they'd found some SSW winds but as they continued the winds veered back to the E. So if there's a circ it's to the west of those readings.

[sgastorm]

I guess looking for west or southwest winds.

[curtadams]

A good run of WSW winds now, albeit light (2 kts). Very good chance it's closed though - they're very light, but not variable.

So, does the pic suggest 1 Knut bears watching?

[Aric Dunn]

honestly if they were to upgrade this becasue of the those obs .. i would be shocked !!
that would mean they really think its going to get its act together from here on out,
satellite does not support a closed circulation i see some broad difuse turning where they are but otherwise its pretty sad..

[Cryomaniac]

honestly if they were to upgrade this becasue of the those obs .. i would be shocked !!

Stranger things have happened at sea.

[Aric Dunn]

maybe they are just bored of flying into the system for 3 straight days.. and finding nothing and thats why they are out there cause who want to sit and fly through some clouds when there is some sun shinning down there.. lol

[curtadams]

They don't *have* to upgrade on finding a closed circ. They didn't Thursday. Laying the measurements out in my head as well as I can from the map it look big, broad, and far from convection, so I'd guess no upgrade. I note they have a pass that goes NNW to SSE through light and variable, but no vortex message.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think they either caught an eddy, or found west/southwest inflow developing. Because I notice a new inflow channel has developed flowing into the convection from the southwest.

[Aric Dunn]

I think they either caught an eddy, or found west/southwest inflow developing. Because I notice a new inflow channel has developed flowing into the convection from the southwest.

on closer inspection of the satellite loops.. there is a clear lul in the winds and even a some slight evidenece of some cloud lines that seem to be flowing inward .. will see what happens cause it can change pretty fast

[HURAKAN]

Luis or anyone, is it people for you to take over the RECON reports of 94L and Cristóbal and I can take care of the Google images.

[cycloneye]

Today,they haved stayed more time distint from yesterday.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the center is indeed still South of 15ºN, unofficially I'd say it is very unlikely this landfalls North of the Rio Grande. SPI might still get some seas and squalls, but, in my amateur opinion, this is a two landfall Mexico threat.

[Aric Dunn]

If the center is indeed still South of 15ºN, unofficially I'd say it is very unlikely this landfalls North of the Rio Grande. SPI might still get some seas and squalls, but, in my amateur opinion, this is a two landfall Mexico threat.

the problem with saying that is if this is the center trying to form then that just means we have a td/ts. becasue at this early stage the center is weak and will shift and most likely be pulled closer the the convection further north and or reform. my point is we cant just say its not going to go somewhere based on the inital center formation ..