ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HUC]

Latest Quicksat in the area
ttp://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... MBas26.png

[KWT]

Yeah to be fair SAL really is pretty much a non-issue with this one. Circulation is only slowly establishing itself and I do see what people mean by saying its got a broad circulation because thats quite evident on the loops.

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest Quicksat in the area
ttp://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... MBas26.png

link wont work for me

[coreyl]

What would it mean if the ridge held strong near florida?

[weatherguru18]

More of a westerly track.

[x-y-no]

Latest Quicksat in the area
ttp://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... MBas26.png

10:21 UTC this morning.

But yeah, I think we've still got a similarly elongated circulation now.

EDIT: fixed link

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

[KWT]

If the ridge holds strong a westerly track into Florida and then possibly from there into the gulf of Mexico, though this far out I would be far more focused on the track in the next 96hrs as that could have a large bearing on the actual threat zones.

[txwatcher91]

Folks, It certainly appears we have a TS/Hurricane headed for the northern anitlles and PR.

Maybe. It's still early August; the cap is generally ferocious this time of year. Quite often you'll see an Invest blow up right about where 92 is now, but then fall apart as it nears the LAs.

Thereafter it looks more likely impacts for the Bahamas then Florida or Bahamas and the Carolinas.

Sayeth I: There be a snowball's chance in Hell this thing recurves up the east coast when that SAL is roaring across the top of it like a Kenworth haulin' logs. Jamaica ought be more worried than Puerto Rico.

Honeyko, what are you talking about? The SAL is very weak and their is a very large moisture envelope behind and in front of 92L, and what "cap" are you talking about? I didn't know there were "caps" over the LA that prevented storms from forming, I guess Hurricane Emily didn't know there was a "cap" over her, she went from a TS to a Cat 3 cane over this area.

[HUC]

thank's x y no for fix the link...

[cycloneye]

92L will reach warmer Heat Potential waters after 50w.

[artist]

I hope this brings nothing but rain to our friends in the islands.

[cycloneye]

I hope this brings nothing but rain to our friends in the islands.

Amen my friend.Here in Puerto Rico the lake reservoirs are going down.

[HURAKAN]

[Honeyko]

Sayeth I: There be a snowball's chance in Hell this thing recurves up the east coast when that SAL is roaring across the top of it like a Kenworth haulin' logs. Jamaica ought be more worried than Puerto Rico.

the sal is not roaring across anywhere... the area you are talking about is weak... that would have little effect on the system.... the sal is not an issue at all this season...

The surface easterlies accompanying it appear to be sufficiently strong enough to decouple 92L vertically and strip out any LLC should steering force a MLC too far to the right at this time.

==//==

I've made a forecast challenge for 92L.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

There is one important fact. The models that depict a track directly over the northern Leeward Islands (i.e. Canadian/UKMET) indicate a deeper system within the next ~24 hours. This is clearly not viable, as demonstrated by available data. Although the low level dry air within the boundary layer is gradually mixing out, the thermodynamic environment remains relatively stable, as evidenced by the SAL to the west and northwest. WV data supports this hypothesis as well. It will not preclude deepening, but it will prohibit more rapid organization. Based on the H7-H85 streamline analysis and TAFB surface analysis, a track further south (toward the S Leewards and Puerto Rico/Hispaniola) is more realistic. Although the thermodynamic environment is marginally conducive, upper level divergence (aided by an upper low to the north) and diffluence is excellent. Based on all available data, a TS is probable for the Lesser Antilles in the vicinity of the southern Leewards, and residents should closely monitor this system.

Personally, a significant interaction with Hispaniola could eventually occur, so any long term intensity estimates hinge on the TC's track. If the TC directly strikes Hispaniola, any inner core could be disrupted, especially if it is compact. On the other hand, if the TC skirts the NE coastline of Hispaniola, any detrimental impacts on intensification may be limited to the short term. However, evidence suggests the "warning cries" for Florida are unwarranted, since it is extremely early.

[KWT]

As cycloneye has shown the heat content only increases from now on and given its hard little trouble producing pretty deep convection even at this stage I see no reason why it can't carry on and develop, at least this has been a little better behaved than pre-Dolly was at this stage.

MiamiensisWx, yeah I agree I think some the models are too far to the east at the moment of what is likely, I know cycloneye won't like this but I do think PR will possibly be in line...

[Derek Ortt]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

There is one important fact. The models that depict a track directly over the northern Leeward Islands (i.e. Canadian/UKMET) indicate a deeper system within the next ~24 hours. This is clearly not viable, as demonstrated by available data. Although the low level dry air within the boundary layer is gradually mixing out, the thermodynamic environment remains relatively stable, as evidenced by the SAL to the west and northwest. WV data supports this hypothesis as well. It will not preclude deepening, but it will prohibit more rapid organization. Based on the H7-H85 streamline analysis and TAFB surface analysis, a track further south (toward the S Leewards and Puerto Rico/Hispaniola) is more realistic. Although the thermodynamic environment is marginally conducive, upper level divergence (aided by an upper low to the north) and diffluence is excellent. Based on all available data, a TS is probable for the Lesser Antilles in the vicinity of the southern Leewards, and residents should closely monitor this system.

Personally, a significant interaction with Hispaniola could eventually occur, so any long term intensity estimates hinge on the TC's track. If the TC directly strikes Hispaniola, any inner core could be disrupted, especially if it is compact. On the other hand, if the TC skirts the NE coastline of Hispaniola, any detrimental impacts on intensification may be limited to the short term. However, evidence suggests the "warning cries" for Florida are unwarranted, since it is extremely early.

Huh? A deep system not viable? I fail to understand what you are seeing. While not certain, it is a reasonable solution

[ConvergenceZone]

HURAKAN, I tried to send you a private message, but for some reason it's just sitting in my outbox and it won't go anywhere . I just wanted to comend you on the excellent graphics you put together and for keeping us all update with the latest SAT Pics.....This message goes for Luis too and anyone else who puts all the hard work and time into these charts and graphics....much appreciated...


(edit: the message in my outbox finally sent after 30 minutes, so disregard that part above)

[vacanechaser]

Sayeth I: There be a snowball's chance in Hell this thing recurves up the east coast when that SAL is roaring across the top of it like a Kenworth haulin' logs. Jamaica ought be more worried than Puerto Rico.

the sal is not roaring across anywhere... the area you are talking about is weak... that would have little effect on the system.... the sal is not an issue at all this season...

The surface easterlies accompanying it appear to be sufficiently strong enough to decouple 92L vertically and strip out any LLC should steering force a MLC too far to the right at this time.

==//==

I've made a forecast challenge for 92L.

not true at all... if the easterlies were strong, the llc would be west of the convection... it is as of right now, the other way around... and you were talking about sal.. and i said, no way.. the sal is weak and a non factor.. plain and simple...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Honeyko]

a track further south (toward the S Leewards and Puerto Rico/Hispaniola) is more realistic.

I agree.