SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

The closest I've seen was as PK mentioned, hurricane Ivan in 2004, was a very powerful cat-5, went inland and somehow its LLC ended upback in the gulf of mexico were it redeveloped again and got upto a 60mph tropical storm...but even that was a good deal shorter then the amount of time Hondo has spent as a left over low pressure center.

[HURAKAN]

Has anything on this scale ever happened (i.e., really intense annular storm dissipates and comes back more than a week later to become a fairly decent tropical system)?

I have no recollection of this ever happening. Iván came back after 4 days, but Hondo took 9 days. It's simply amazing.

[Cyclenall]

This is going to make Hondo a famous tropical cyclone (a notable TC under Wikipedia maybe?).

[RattleMan]

This is going to make Hondo a famous tropical cyclone (a notable TC under Wikipedia maybe?).

What do you mean by that? Hondo is already famous for being the strongest storm in the SWIO this season

[HURAKAN]

This is going to make Hondo a famous tropical cyclone (a notable TC under Wikipedia maybe?).

What do you mean by that? Hondo is already famous for being the strongest storm in the SWIO this season

That doesn't necessarily make a TC famous. In 2004 Hurricane Javier was the strongest in the EPAC. Is Javier a famous cyclone?

Hondo will be famous because it's doing something never witnessed before in recorded history. Afterwards, you can also say, that it was also the strongest in the season.

[Squarethecircle]

Hondo IS already famous, but only because of it's incredible height, sustained power, and brief yet exciting finish. Like some sort of great TC-Symphony or something like that. And the annularism.

This makes it unforgettable.

I think we already have cyclone of the year all wrapped up here.

[Squarethecircle]

Convection near center is dying off.

[RattleMan]

Hondo will be famous because it's doing something never witnessed before in recorded history. Afterwards, you can also say, that it was also the strongest in the season.

That too.

[HURAKAN]

21/1900 UTC 18.2S 59.8E T2.0/2.5 HONDO -- South Indian Ocean

[Chacor]

Probably diurnal oscillation.

AUCUN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.
AUCUN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES

DIXIEME ET DERNIER BULLETIN DE CYCLONE POUR RODRIGUES EMIS A
10H00 CE DIMANCHE 10 FEVRIER 2008.

A 10H00 CE MATIN LA FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 'IVAN' ETAIT CENTREE A
ENVIRONS 500 KM PRESQUE AU NORD DE RODRIGUES EN LATITUDE 15.0
DEGRES SUD ET LONGITUDE 64.2 DEGRES EST.

'IVAN' A CONTINUE SON LENT DEPLACEMENT ET LEGER ELOIGNEMENT DE
RODRIGUES VERS LE NORD EST TOUT EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT LEGEREMENT.
LES BANDES ACTIVES SONT MAINTENANT CONCENTREES PRES DU CENTRE DE
IVAN.

CE LEGER ELOIGNEMENT ET AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'IVAN ONT DIMINUE LES
RISQUES DES VENTS CYCLONIQUES SUR RODRIGUES POUR AUJOURD'HUI.
MAIS IL EST PREVU QUE IVAN CHANGE DE TRAJECTOIRE DE NOUVEAU DANS LES
JOURS A VENIR.

LES AVERTISSEMENTS SONT DONC ENLEVES A RODRIGUES.

AUCUN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

LE TEMPS A RODRIGUES SERA TOUJOURS NUAGEUX AVEC DES AVERSES
PASSAGERES SURTOUT SUR LES HAUTS.

LES VENTS D'EST-SUD-EST SOUFFLERONT EN MOYENNE DE 35 KM/H ET DE 75
KM/H EN RAFALES.

LA MER SERA FORTE AVEC HOULE DU SUD-EST.
LES SORTIES EN HAUTE MER SONT DECONSEILLEES.

AUCUN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.
AUCUN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.=

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 220021

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 39/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/22 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 59.7E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 350 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/22 12 UTC: 18.9S/59.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 19.7S/58.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 21.0S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 22.6S/54.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 24.1S/51.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 25.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- AND CI=2.5
EX-HONDO IS NOW SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS.
METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CENTER AND A BROKEN CURVED BAND.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DIFFICULT IN THE BORDER OF A QUICK
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR LINE EXISTING WEST OF 57E.
THE RIDGE EFFECT IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEAKENING
THEREFORE EX-HONDO IS FORECASTED ACCELERATING ON THIS SOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN NEUTRAL TO FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS, SO SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY BUT FORECASTING OF INTENSITY
REMAINS DELICATE. BEYOND 48 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED UNDERGOING AN
INFORCING EASTERLY WINDSHEAR AND A LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC POTENTIAL.

Near-TC strength no longer expected. Wind shear.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 302
WTIO30 FMEE 220613
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/22 AT 0600 UTC :
18.6S / 59.6E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 035 SE: 170 SO: 120 NO: 035
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/22 18 UTC: 19.5S/58.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/02/23 06 UTC: 20.6S/57.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2008/02/23 18 UTC: 21.5S/55.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/02/24 06 UTC: 23.0S/53.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/02/24 18 UTC: 24.6S/50.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/02/25 06 UTC: 26.6S/49.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+ AND CI=2.5
METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CENTER AND A BROKEN CURVED BAND.
EX-HONDO HAS A SMALL SIZE AND QUICKLY RACTS TO THE ENVIRONMENT. THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN NEUTRAL TO FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36
HOURS, AND THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY BUT INTENSITY
FORECAST
REMAINS DELICATE. BEYOND 36 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN
INCREASING EASTERLY
WINDSHEAR AND WEAK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
THE RIDGE EFFECT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN. THEREFORE EX-HONDO IS FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=
NNNN

[Chacor]

TCFA was renewed despite its poor appearance. No longer expected to strengthen:

WTIO30 FMEE 221209

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 41/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/22 AT 1200 UTC :
18.9S / 59.0E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 020 SE: 170 SO: 120 NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 19.7S/57.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 20.9S/55.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 22.4S/53.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 24.5S/51.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 26.4S/49.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/02/25 12 UTC: 28.7S/49.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5-

DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM HAS STRONGLY WEAKENED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

EX-HONDO HAS A SMALL SIZE AND QUICKLY REACTS TO THE ENVIRONMENT,
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE DELICATE. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN
NEUTRAL TO FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS, SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASING EASTERLY WINDSHEAR AND TRACK OVER A
WEAK OCEAN HEAT CO
NTENT.

THE RIDGE EFFECT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN. THEREFORE EX-HONDO IS FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

[HURAKAN]

[gigabyte89]

WEATHER NEWS ISSUED AT 16H30 ON FRIDAY 22 FEBRUARY 2008.

GENERAL SITUATION :
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 'EX HONDO' HAS AGAIN WEAKENED AND IS
NOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA. AS SUCH IT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A
POTENTIAL THREAT TO MAURITIUS AND WILL NOT PROVOKE CYCLONIC
CONDITIONS.

AT 1600 HOURS THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED AT ABOUT 190 KM
IN THE NORTH-EAST OF MAURITIUS. IT IS MOVING IN A SOUTH-WESTERLY
DIRECTION AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE MAURITIUS REGION BY
TO-MORROW.

CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL INFLUENCE
LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO-NIGHT AND TO-MORROW.

FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS :
CLOUDY PERIODS WITH PASSING SHOWERS ,MODERATE AT TIMES,LESS
FREQUENT TO THE WEST.RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

EAST SOUTH EASTERLY GUSTS MAY REACH 90 KM/H IN PLACES TO-NIGHT AND
TO-MORROW.

SEAS WILL BE ROUGH BEYOND THE REEFS AS WELL AS IN LAGOONS.
THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE AT SEA.

TO-NIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL BE ABOUT 21'C OVER THE CENTRAL
PLATEAU AND BETWEEN 23'C-26'C ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL VARY BETWEEN 25'C-28'C OVER THE HIGH
GROUNDS AND BETWEEN 30'C-32'C ELSEWHERE.

HIGH TIDE TOMORROW AROUND: 02H31 AND 14H20.
LOW TIDES AROUND :20H11 AND TOMORROW 08H32.

SUNRISE : 06H05.
SUNSET : 18H42

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE AT 16H00: 1009 HPA.

END=

Updated: 22 February 2008 at 12:48 UT (LOCAL TIME=UT+4 HOURS)
Developed by: Meteorological Services, St. Paul Road, Vacoas, Mauritius.

[Sanibel]

Both systems are expended.

[Squarethecircle]

Check recent IR. Very large burst of convection close to the center.