ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[carolina_73]

VERY IMPRESSIVE!!! Going to be very interesting when NOAA gets in there and collects data. It will be nice to get an exact fix where the LLC is as well. The models that run later tonight and tomorrow will give us alot better idea where this is really going. IMO I believe this is already a TD and maybe even a storm. You think the LLC might might be forming in this area?

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

VERY IMPRESSIVE!!! Going to be very interesting when NOAA gets in there and collects data. It will be nice to get an exact fix where the LLC is as well. The models that run later tonight and tomorrow will give us alot better idea where this is really going. IMO I believe this is already a TD and maybe even a storm. You think the LLC might might be forming in this area?

right now that is a very vigorous midlevel circ.. but i would not be surprised if that eventually worked down to the surface and became dominate later today and tonight

[Sanibel]

Have you noticed the little vortice out there at 63n 18w

Not sure. That could be a remnant center now satellite eddying. The inflow to the burst looks stronger. If your center is the center it will wreck-up on PR.

[KWT]

***Double Post Alert- in main and model run 92L threads***

500 mb heights from AccuWX PPV 6Z GFDL outer grid suggest trough that starts turning this North is lifting out the last 24 hours before hour 126, so the turn North off Florida may not be the beginning of a fish storm (well, probably not a real fish parts of the Lesser and Greater Antilles and Bahamas to begin with). Per my amateur and unofficial interpretation of the 6Z GFDL

Yeah the ECM sort of does the same thing as well, lifts it northwards but then the high builds back and so its left in no mans land possibly over the gulf stream...

As you say Aric just a strong MLC but considering convection has been consitant over that MLC I suspect something will work its way down pretty soon.

[HurricaneHunter914]

What a beautiful system! I think an llc could form under that deep burst later today before recon arrives. If that happens, 92L/TD6 could quickly intensify.

[Ed Mahmoud]

From the Jeff Master's blog linked above- sounds like Jeff and Derek Ortt have a similar view on dry air and shear as a mechanism for weakening a developing system...

The storm fell apart yesterday, thanks to an infusion of dry air from the large region of Saharan air that continues to surround it. However, as each day goes by, 92L is moistening its environment to insulate itself from the destructive influences of this dry air. The storm is evaporating large amounts of water vapor from the warm 28-29°C waters below, then condensing this vapor inside intermittent bursts of heavy thunderstorm activity. Water vapor satellite loops show that the moistened area has steadily expanded, and is now large enough to insulate 92L from the surrounding dry air--as long as there is little wind shear. A strong jet of wind from the side could carry dry air into the core of 92L and disrupt it. However, wind shear is less than 10 knots, and this does not appear likely to happen

[Stormcenter]

Information in this post is the opinion and/or rhetorical questions of the poster only. Do not rely on anything you read below:

>>But steering currents will be very weak at that time. I wouldn't rule out a possible impact in south Florida early next week, but I'm not forecasting it now. Confidence in the timing of that northerly turn is on the low side.

Yeah, scratching my head. With the exception of the CMC, NOGAPS and UKMET (00z runs, haven't looked at the early guideance for the 12z runs yet), most of the other globals, tropicals and subsidiaries are going with that just east of Florida and stall or creep north scenario. So what happens - a trough lifts out with the low forming off the east coast and a weak surface high comes down out of Canada. Immediately thereafter, another one comes down and sets up the block if the storm is sitting off the east coast in the vicinity of the Bahamas. That's where the trouble comes in. What happens next? Does it sit and intensify and then maybe make a final destination (SFL, GA, SC, NC), does it migrate west (retrograde) across south Florida and into the Eastern Gulf? Does it just sit there waiting for a player thereafter? Really, really difficult to see at this point as there are reasonable arguments for any of the various 4-5 day solutions.

So if we look out to the WPAC at 11NONAME, it appears the JTWC and NRL are recurving the system across southern South Korea a little southeast of Taegu. This would teleconnect to a recurve or northern movement at or near Bahamas/East Florida with some troughiness off the US East Coast in the 5-7 day period. 11NONAME is not a particularly significant system, so the teleconnection may not mean a whole lot. Additionally, it started much farther south, but it does indicate the shape of the ridge. Ultimately Japan most closely teleconnects to the NC Coast, and this is several degrees farther west.

Just a way out of left field call at this point, but it would appear that unless things change drastically, my focus would be in the region of SE Florida, the Bahamian Kingdom to the SC/NC border and then we'll see.

Does a big Western Atlantic ridge build in after? Does the Canadian surface high pressure come down and set up a block? Looking toward Saturday for some better answers.

Steve

I say it's still way too early to call.

[Normandy]

Probably the most unbelievable satellite presentation I have seen on an invest...then again I haven't seen to many.

[gatorcane]

Its way too early to call indeed. But for those in the Bahamas, Florida and up the SE Coast of the US, maybe 92L should be a wakeup call for those who have not completed at least some preliminary hurricane preps. I'm not talking shutters or anything but maybe do a quick check on your hurricane supplies while you can (water, nonperishable items, generators, etc)

The heart of the hurricane season is not even here yet believe it or not.

[KWT]

Yep the deep convection so far is still holding nicely, if it keeps up with the decent depth over the next 6hrs then we may finaly be out of this plusing phase that we've been in the last few days.

Does look very good it seems.

Normandy, can't disagree its up there IMO.

[Steve]

>>Always liked those teleconnections thoughts there Steve have to see how much a player it might be.Kevin

Me too. Sometimes they are irrlevant, but 5-7 days out is Tuesday-Thursday which is when at-that-point-probably-Fay is spinning down or near the Bahamas. It's a clue. And Korea, again being much farther west than Japan, might be a better indicator of the SE US Coast. No matter what happens with 92L, I'll be watching down there to see what happens afterwards and whether the idea of a pattern shift put out by Masters yesterday is matched by what precedes it in the WPAC.

Steve

[funster]

Probably the most unbelievable satellite presentation I have seen on an invest...then again I haven't seen to many.

Pretty impressive. Anyone have the latest dvorak number?

[canegrl04]

What a beautiful system! I think an llc could form under that deep burst later today before recon arrives. If that happens, 92L/TD6 could quickly intensify.

What an awesome looking system.It could go TS Fay later today

[Steve]

>>I say it's still way too early to call.

Obviously. And that was my point. But don't be completely shocked if what I said has some merit come Monday.

Steve

[Sanibel]

If you have a good eye the system pulsed already between the 3am d-max and now. I could be wrong but this appears to be a permanent CDO now. Could be another quick to TS system.

[HURAKAN]

[Stormcenter]

:uarrow:

Its way too early to call indeed. But for those in the Bahamas, Florida and up the SE Coast of the US, maybe 92L should be a wakeup call for those who have not completed at least some preliminary hurricane preps. I'm not talking shutters or anything but maybe do a quick check on your hurricane supplies while you can (water, nonperishable items, generators, etc)

The heart of the hurricane season is not even here yet believe it or not.

I totally agree....this "could" get very ugly for someone if it does in fact develop into something more then just a tropical storm. Possibly a slow mover.

[KWT]

Wow thats starting to get a classic look now, MLC is so powerful now and you've got to believe there is a LLC there now surely!

Looks like a TS already...scary!

[gatorcane]

well at least we may very well see an NHC cone soon enough -- that will let us know where they think it could be heading.

I wonder why they are waiting so long to pull the trigger on 92L? Cyclonegensis seems imminent.