ATL: IKE Discussion

[chris_fit]

when was the last time they hit it say within 50 miles at 5 days,

Wasn't that about how accurate they were with Gustav??

I think they got pretty lucky with Gustav in the long term, however take a look at their short term forecasts, specifically around Haiti and Isle of Youth, Cuba... 50+ mile difference in 18 hours or less.

[tolakram]

Latest Visible: what kind of color enhancement is this and what does it show us?

[mph101]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
HURRICANE IKE TO DOMINATE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR OFFICIAL NHC TRACK WITH LATEST FORECAST POSITIONING IKE SE
OF FL MON THEN IN THE FL STRAITS/KEYS AREA TUE THEN INTO THE SE GULF
WED AND SOMEWHERE IN THE E CENTRAL GULF THU. SEE NHC DISCUSSIONS FOR
EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN AND TRACK UNCERTAINTIES. WITH IKE
SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION/AREA EXPECT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS/MOISTURE/WINDS AS EARLY AS MONDAY THEN FURTHER INCREASING
TUE-WED INTO THU. THE CURRENT 5 DAY CONE OF UNCERTAINTY COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SYSTEM TO SEE HOW THINGS
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[sweetpea]

Governor Crist declares State of Emergency
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/conte ... =7&cxcat=0

[jinftl]

Technically southeast florida is east of the 5-day forecast point....what we are approaching is more of a 3 or 4-day forecast at this point. The cone starts to shrink as the time to landfall grows closer and accuracy margin improves.

This is probably going to be a tuesday event, possible starting as early as late Monday. The 5-day forecast point is Wednesday pm as of the next advisory. Most indications are this will be west of southeast florida by then.

yes they have but being at there 5 day point really isnt such a bad place to be, i guess i would rather be there than at a point say 150 miles on either side, when was the last time they hit it say within 50 miles at 5 days

[KWT]

The key is what happens after the WSW motion?
The GFS slowly breaks down the ridge and allows the system to start gaining some latitude but the ECM shows no weakness at all and shoots it up the spine of Cuba westwards.

I'm not all that sure what will happen myself, quite possibly something down the middle?

I think a state of emergency is probably the wisest thing to do right now for those in powers.

[jlauderdal]

when was the last time they hit it say within 50 miles at 5 days,

Wasn't that about how accurate they were with Gustav??

I think they got pretty lucky with Gustav in the long term, however take a look at their short term forecasts, specifically around Haiti and Isle of Youth, Cuba... 50+ mile difference in 18 hours or less.

hmm, i never thought about that but you are right, ok im changing my stance, i want to be at the 24 hour point, LOL

[jlauderdal]

Governor Crist declares State of Emergency
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/conte ... =7&cxcat=0

he already declared a state of emergency for hanna isn't that still in effect, you know its active when you are under two states of emergency

[sweetpea]

Governor Crist declares State of Emergency
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/conte ... =7&cxcat=0

he already declared a state of emergency for hanna isn't that still in effect, you know its active when you are under two states of emergency

This one is for Ike. I don't know if it just adds on to Hannah's? This one is for the ENTIRE state!!

[SapphireSea]

Latest Visible: what kind of color enhancement is this and what does it show us?

That would be a rainbow/white spectrum IR shot. I believe he is trying to expand circulation Northward but shear is doing an excellent job of limiting organization. Looks to be moving about West (270) right now as well.

[TheShrimper]

Crist had a press conference at 11 AM stating that there is still a state of emergency. He kind of covered his a--, with a transition from Hanna (premature) to Ike as far as the concern. Nothing was stated other than the obvious......I think him and Nagin are battling for the attention.

[VeniceInlet]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but with Gustav, weren't the models pretty much in consensus five days out? I'd say that in cases like that, the chances of being right are better than if the models are all over the map in five days. Every storm situation is different and when there are more variables and uncertainties that come into play, then the less likely the five day will be on the money. At least that seems more common sense to me. In its advisories, when there are uncertainties, the NHC mentions them if there are any and says that the track could vary. I don't know, the more messed up the models look, the less I have confidence in the five-day. That may be unscientific but it seems to bear out.

[jinftl]

I think when it comes to whether to take a threat seriously, and in turn, prepare properly when needed, should be based on:

1. What is the official NHC forecast. If you are in the cone, you are threatened. If you are in a watch or warning, assume if it is coming towards you. The NHC has proven themselves time and again and to second guess whether their cone or track or strength estimate is absurd.

2. Listen to governement and local officials....they are not going to steer you wrong.

3. Don't make decisions that effect you outside of this message board based on the black line of the forecast. We can squabble over that here...but prepare based on the cone. Assume the storm will be somewhere in the cone moving out in time as the NHC shows.

4. A storm is more than its eye....if tropical storm force winds extend 100 miles on all sides, guess what.....pretty much the entire cone in the 72-96 hour range is going to see at least tropical storm condiions.

[Scorpion]

What's up with the 954 pressure and 79 kt wind? Error?

[CrazyC83]

What's up with the 954 pressure and 79 kt wind? Error?

Not sure, since that would translate down to 947mb if confirmed at the surface. I am sure the VDM will show something higher.

[Canelaw99]

From Broward EOC -

Mayor - We have the weekend to prepare, so please use it. Be prepared for the first 72 hours. This includes food, water, medications, etc. Have an evacuation plan if you live in an evacuation zone. Now is the time to assess your home. Go outside. Check your roof, landscaping, pool area, windows, garage. Assess your personal important documents. Take pictures of what is of value both inside and outside your home. If you're fortunate enough to have a video camera, use it. If you have patio furniture, or other unsecured items outside, now is the time to bring them inside. Now is the time to be a good neighbor and make sure you don't have something that will become flying objects. We encourage you to have flashlights, batteries, and ice on hand. Fill up your gas tanks. Be sure you have cash on hand. If the storm continues to move on the course it's moving, Monday is the day we'd begin to see a "little bit" of wind activity. Be sure to have your cell phones charged. Make plans for your pets. They will have a pet friendly shelter at Milennium school in Tamarac (pre-reg. required). 311 hotline open Sunday morning and will have staff there 24/7 to answer questions.

This is not the time to panic. This is the time to prepare. This is not an exercise. This storm could have catastrophic impact on this area. This is a storm that is providing a huge potential impact. Do not follow that line as it can change every 6 hours.

Take this storm seriously. Use common sense. Stay tuned to local media for latest info. We are here and monitoring this storm.

http://www.broward.org has a lot of good hurricane info.

[cycloneye]

Pressure lower at second pass,954 mbs from 959 at first one.

93 kt FL, 87 kt SFMR, pressure 954mb.

[KWT]

Well the convection in Ike's eyewalls is bursting and is now covering the eye to some degree, sort of like a slightly better organised Gustav...

Oh yeah and here is what the HPC thinks will happen, this is not something Ivanhater will take pleasure seeing:

http://img390.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... ntsvw2.jpg

Its amazing to think we may have another major hurricane threatening land so soon after Gustav.

[HURAKAN]

[Sabanic]

Well the convection in Ike's eyewalls is bursting and is now covering the eye to some degree, sort of like a slightly better organised Gustav...

Oh yeah and here is what the HPC thinks will happen, this is not something Ivanhater will take pleasure seeing:

http://img390.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... ntsvw2.jpg

Nor will his neighbors on either side