Accuweather thoughts, they seem to not be buying an east of Florida solution.
Tropical Development Possible Today or Tomorrow
We continue to watch for the development of a tropical disturbance located to the east of the Leeward Islands. This area became better organized late Wednesday and continues to show signs of organization Thursday.
The tropical disturbance is located near 16 north and 61 west as an area of low pressure (1009 millibars, or 29.80 inches of mercury). Convection redeveloped west and northwest of the center of circulation late Wednesday and has persisted into Thursday. There currently remains two inhibiting factors; dry air to the north and west and stronger winds. These winds should gradually relax over the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper- level trough ahead of it moves west back off to the southwest and weakens. This process would then vent the system and could help this system to become a depression and even storm in a short period of time.
The future track of this system will be highly dependent on the orientation and strength of the Atlantic ridge. A strong westward building ridge would guide this system over the Greater Antilles and into Cuba while a weaker building ridge would allow the system to ride more northwestward and perhaps threaten Florida or even the southeastern U.S. early next week. Some computer forecasts take the system into the northern Bahamas by Monday, then keep it east of Florida. Other computer models take the system farther west and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Our current thinking takes the center of the storm through the Bahamas over the weekend and toward eastern Florida early next week.
In the short term, gusty winds to tropical-storm force and rain squalls will begin to impact the Leeward Island Thursday afternoon. These gusty winds and rain squalls will then move across the Virginia Islands and Puerto Rico Thursday night and Friday. This feature will continue to strengthen Friday and through the weekend and will likely become a hurricane as it passes through the Bahamas and toward the east coast of Florida. This storm could even become a Category 2 storm early next week as it spins off the east coast of Florida. Residents from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico to the Bahamas and the Southeast U.S. should pay close attention to this storm.
Another system we are watching about 1,350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles still remains disorganized, surrounded by dry, dusty air, and is tracking close to only marginally warm water. Development of this system is less likely, but we will continue to monitor this system as it tracks west across the Atlantic.
by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... n=atlantic
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