ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Well I hope wxman comes in here and gives me a little hope with a blocking high making this go to Mexico

[stormy1970al]

I wish this storm would fizzle out but to be on a more serious side I think everyone should just watch it for right now and take precautions. Make sure that you have your hurricane plan in action because we are getting into the active part of the season. It is easy to react the way most are here because many of us went through Hurricane Katrina, Ivan, Charlie, Rita, Wilma, Jeanne, and I think I am leaving one out. We remember those storms and when we see one that is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico at this strength it is hard not to freak out. But one thing I have learned is to pay attention and take action. Don't panic. And this site is excellent for information. So right now it is time to stay tune and watch. Turn off the cable news like CNN, FOX NEWS, and MSNBC because with the anniversary of Katrina and a major hurricane in the Gulf I imagine they will be forecasting doom for the whole Gulf Coast. Listen to your local mets and the NHC. Listen to our excellent mets that we are very fortunate to have here at storm 2k.

[gatorcane]

Height data out of Jamaica and Gustav's SW-NE satellite presentation is making believe the mid-level ridge extends from the Bahamas all the way SW past Jamaica and into some of the Western Caribbean.

That may be why Gustav looks to be hitting some kind of wall and hardly moving to the NW or WNW. Just a thought given the current data.

[x-y-no]

Climatology is fine for a sanity check - if a track is wildly outside of past experience, one ought to see some good reason in the synoptics for it happening.

But we just don't have enough of a record to make reilable statements about the likelihood of a track generally into the Gulf affecting pretty much any part of that coast. After all, there's nothing remotely unreasonable about that kind of track in August.

[ConvergenceZone]

Height data out of Jamaica and Gustav's SW-NE satellite presentation is making believe the mid-level ridge extends from the Bahamas all the way SW past Jamaica and into some of the Western Caribbean.

That may be why Gustav looks to be hitting some kind of wall and hardly moving to the NW or WNW. Just a thought given the current data.

and I think that's why the possibility of this storm going into the Yukatan is increasing......Gulf is also possible, but I'm finding the Yukatan possibility on the increase.....I think the models will gradually begin a shift westward...

[jasons2k]

Rita was a another example of something that defied climatology IIRC

You just never know and I'm not one to rely much on climatology

[dwg71]

Height data out of Jamaica and Gustav's SW-NE satellite presentation is making believe the mid-level ridge extends from the Bahamas all the way SW past Jamaica and into some of the Western Caribbean.

That may be why Gustav looks to be hitting some kind of wall and hardly moving to the NW or WNW. Just a thought given the current data.

and I think that's why the possibility of this storm going into the Yukatan is increasing......Gulf is also possible, but I'm finding the Yukatan possibility on the increase.....I think the models will gradually begin a shift westward...

I'm thinking the opposite, most all models are sniffing out a weakness. Pretty good consensous atm, regarding a wnw turn followed by a slow turn around the periphery of the hp ridge more NW.

[Blown Away]

Sure does look like slow WNW now rate along the NHC track.

[PTrackerLA]

Good to see we're on the same page Steve, we've both been around here long enough to see it all . I've got tickets for the LSU game Saturday and I'm wondering how all this will unfold. I remember way back to 1998 when they were announcing Hurricane Georges coordinates in the stadium while some were already evacuating SE LA. I would have to imagine things are completely different ten years later. Anyway, I hope for the best and as a life-long Gulf coast resident my thoughts go out to all of my neighbors and friends this week.


Oh and,
GO TIGERS (we are no Michigan!)

[alan1961]

Think he's lost some punch on the last update on sat..NHC as downgraded gustav to cat1 landfall on Haiti...wouldn't be at all surprised to see Gustav get downgraded to a TS after Haiti or possibly before even..JMO

[93superstorm]

Looks like it just went due west on the last frame , anyone notice:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[dwg71]

Looks like it just went due west on the last frame , anyone notice:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Look at visible, its still NW...

[x-y-no]

See, here's what I'm talking about ...

GFS 12z initialization at 500mb:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

Note that while the 588 line doesn't extend south of Cuba, a pocket is forming around Gustav.


Now here's 6 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_006l.gif

The 588 line now extends south across Jamaica.

I don't see how the storm moves much at all in this scenario - it ought to stall over Haiti.


12 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012l.gif

A little weaker, but still tilted down to the southwest just west of Jamaica.


24 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

backed off a tiny bit, but still with that SW tilt. And given the GFS tendency to weaken mid-level ridging, I'm not convinced that block isn't stronger. Now maybe this means a movement WSW towards Jamaica, maybe just really slow movement west. But it doesn't seem to fit with any of the relatively quick westward movement south of Cuba tracks I'm seeing forecast.

[ConvergenceZone]

Think he's lost some punch on the last update on sat..NHC as downgraded gustav to cat1 landfall on Haiti...wouldn't be at all surprised to see Gustav get downgraded to a TS after Haiti or possibly before even..JMO

Yea, they just mentioned on TV that it appears to be weakening temporarily. I don't think it will weaken to a TS though, perhaps just a mid cat 1 hurricane, or low cat 1 if it hits too much land......hard to say..

[x-y-no]

More food for thought ...

36 hour 12z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml

A surface low is tracking west south of Cuba, but look where it has the 500mb low: right smack on top of Haiti still.

You can't tell me Gustav is going to fall apart like that in 36 hours. I think the real position is somewhere inbetween the two - much slower westward progress.

[CourierPR]

Will that ULL to Gustav's northeast have a role to play? It seems like many posters are ignoring it.

[gatorcane]

x-y-no excellent analysis as always. I do agree Gustav is not going to shoot straight through the passage between Jamaica and Cuba so quickly and long-term implications to the track may result in a much slower west movement.

[KWT]

Well Gustav looks around 75kts to me now as the presentation is a little less impressive then a couple of hours ago but still a neat compact hurricane.

sadly Haiti is going to take a pretty strong blow from Gustav, just hope we don't see severe mudslides from this system...

[x-y-no]

Will that ULL to Gustav's northeast have a role to play? It seems like many posters are ignoring it.

If Gustav moves slowly enough it might. If he moves as forecast, not really.

[Aquawind]

Good points x-y-no. I agree on the slow down alright...we shall see.