ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Sabanic]

This is my last reply on this. Of course the whole Gulf coast should watch this, he would be the first to say that, my point is he is a pro with technology and experience at his disposal that we the general public do not have access to. So when he forecast I would listen to it over all the amatuer stuff you get fed on here.

You are correct in that we should pay attention to the pro-mets I agree, but even they know things can change drastically when we are looking at so many days out before possible landfall along the GC. There are many here I would assume that although they are not pros have been through many hurricanes, and have tracked many. They also may have pro sources of their own, and may be listening to what they are hearing specifically for their area.

Ike will more than likely be a bad boy, and anyone pro or not discounting ideas of a possible change in track, and or intensity sometime in the next few days and being so certain as to where he is going is by no means being professional.

[jeff]

I am not getting run off...just making a statement about some of the pointless post.

I would gladly give this storm to eveyone who wants it...I dont...I have had my feel this year in TX.

This is going to be nothing short of a horrible week in SE TX...we may not get a direct hit...but it wil be too close to not pull the mass evacuation trigger.

[smw1981]

This is my last reply on this. Of course the whole Gulf coast should watch this, he would be the first to say that, my point is he is a pro with technology and experience at his disposal that we the general public do not have access to. So when he forecast I would listen to it over all the amatuer stuff you get fed on here.

I completely appreciate everything the pro mets do for us here on S2k, and understand that they have lots of high tech things at their disposal, but I think the point that some people on here are trying to get across is that it is possible that the high tech equipment may not be able to forsee the future. We have definitely seen this time and time again with many different storms, and there are times when the track has changed 24 hours before landfall, so how can we say where a storm is going a week out?

Although I could not find a graphic to show this, here is part of the discussion for Katrina on Wednesday, August 24th..5 days before Katrina hit Louisiana...

"..the forecast track is narrowing down to Pensacola-Panama City landfall maybe centered around/near the Destin-Ft. Walton area. Water is warm enough for a strong system but probably not that warm that it would cross too far into the IH categories with the limited time it would have in the Eastern and Northeastern Gulf."

Again, thank you pro mets for everything you do for all of us on S2k...

[Texashawk]

I am not getting run off...just making a statement about some of the pointless post.

I would gladly give this storm to eveyone who wants it...I dont...I have had my feel this year in TX.

This is going to be nothing short of a horrible week in SE TX...we may not get a direct hit...but it wil be too close to not pull the mass evacuation trigger.

No kidding.

For those of you who aren't from Texas, you have to understand that there are almost 7 million people who live in an area from Fort Bend/Brazoria Counties over to the Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange area. To say nothing of the population south of that. Nightmare doesn't begin to describe what may be coming, which is why you see a lot of emotion on the board, just my op.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes, we will have to evacuate. I have spoken to many who said they cannot afford to leave again after Gustav due to putting bills off. I tried to tell them, they said they'd tuff it out.

Here's hoping for the best for everyone.

[Dean4Storms]

Jeff you guys (Pro Mets) do all of us a great service and we appreciate it.

[jwayne]

I am not getting run off...just making a statement about some of the pointless post.

I would gladly give this storm to eveyone who wants it...I dont...I have had my feel this year in TX.

This is going to be nothing short of a horrible week in SE TX...we may not get a direct hit...but it wil be too close to not pull the mass evacuation trigger.

When do you think they pull the trigger and how far down the coast in your opinion?

[caneman]

plenty of time to watch it folks and as stated models most certainly flip flop. 2 days landfall forecast may be hundreds of miles away.

[jeff]

I hold from Matagorda Bay to Vermillion Bay...narrowing toward the TX/LA state line. That is the best right now at days out. Landfall late Saturday afternoon or early evening. I echo again that well developed Gulf storms moving greater than 8mph tend to track right of NHC and guidance. So if NHC puts this into Matagorda Bay at 400pm Monday...look out upper TX/SW LA coast.

[jeff]

I am not getting run off...just making a statement about some of the pointless post.

I would gladly give this storm to eveyone who wants it...I dont...I have had my feel this year in TX.

This is going to be nothing short of a horrible week in SE TX...we may not get a direct hit...but it wil be too close to not pull the mass evacuation trigger.

When do you think they pull the trigger and how far down the coast in your opinion?

Right now it is looking from CRP to state line Wednesday 600pm (seems too soon, but it takes 40 hours to clear GLS County). May see that timeline moved back a little to early Thursday AM. Onset TS force winds expected noon Friday (may also be a tad earlier). Medical special needs evac. could start early Tuesday.

Fuel situation is critical coming so soon after Gustav and with LA already in very high demand with shortages.

Since we are looking at a cat 3...evac all zones (A,B,C) with full scale contra-flow operations on all freeways out of Houston.

Please let something change between now and tomorrow at this time.

[Dean4Storms]

I hate to say it but better this hits near the TX/LA border than just about anywhere within 100 miles east or west of that border.

[jeff]

I hate to say it but better this hits near the TX/LA border than just about anywhere within 100 miles east or west of that border.

BPT and LCH may disagree...but I do understand your point. Vermillion Bay area or S TX between BRO and CRp would be the best options. Offshore rigs may take a Rita type hit.

[gboudx]

I hold from Matagorda Bay to Vermillion Bay...narrowing toward the TX/LA state line. That is the best right now at days out. Landfall late Saturday afternoon or early evening. I echo again that well developed Gulf storms moving greater than 8mph tend to track right of NHC and guidance. So if NHC puts this into Matagorda Bay at 400pm Monday...look out upper TX/SW LA coast.

jeff, I get your updates and if you remember, I sent you an email about my folks in SELA using your updates as guides for their own preparations. Right now, they have a hotel booked up here in Rockwall, but they don't want to pull the trigger on that if they don't have to. I won't ask you to tell me if they should or should not leave based on what you stated in the quoted text. But what do you think the affects would be in NOLA with that landfall position?

[jwayne]

I am not getting run off...just making a statement about some of the pointless post.

I would gladly give this storm to eveyone who wants it...I dont...I have had my feel this year in TX.

This is going to be nothing short of a horrible week in SE TX...we may not get a direct hit...but it wil be too close to not pull the mass evacuation trigger.

When do you think they pull the trigger and how far down the coast in your opinion?

Right now it is looking from CRP to state line Wednesday 600pm (seems too soon, but it takes 40 hours to clear GLS County). May see that timeline moved back a little to early Thursday AM. Onset TS force winds expected noon Friday (may also be a tad earlier). Medical special needs evac. could start early Tuesday.

Fuel situation is critical coming so soon after Gustav and with LA already in very high demand with shortages.

Since we are looking at a cat 3...evac all zones (A,B,C) with full scale contra-flow operations on all freeways out of Houston.

Please let something change between now and tomorrow at this time.

You buying the north turn into landfall or a more w/nw to nw trajectory? Reason I ask is potential strength coming in (am I right noticing that strong storms turning north or ne near landfall tend to weaken a little?)

thanks

[Dean4Storms]

One thing that could take place is that Ike gets torn apart by Cuba and is never able to fully recover and comes in no stronger than a Cat. 1

[Diva]

I hate to say it but better this hits near the TX/LA border than just about anywhere within 100 miles east or west of that border.

If you hate to say it then you shouldn't! That's right over my house!!

[jeff]

I hold from Matagorda Bay to Vermillion Bay...narrowing toward the TX/LA state line. That is the best right now at days out. Landfall late Saturday afternoon or early evening. I echo again that well developed Gulf storms moving greater than 8mph tend to track right of NHC and guidance. So if NHC puts this into Matagorda Bay at 400pm Monday...look out upper TX/SW LA coast.

jeff, I get your updates and if you remember, I sent you an email about my folks in SELA using your updates as guides for their own preparations. Right now, they have a hotel booked up here in Rockwall, but they don't want to pull the trigger on that if they don't have to. I won't ask you to tell me if they should or should not leave based on what you stated in the quoted text. But what do you think the affects would be in NOLA with that landfall position?

Likely similar to Rita...We should know much better Tuesday. Will not give the all clear for SE LA as that would be not the correct action...but I feel the threat is more west of that area.

[wxman57]

Here are the 00Z models. Fairly good consensus between Matagorda Bay and the mid LA coast, as Jeff's been saying:

[Dean4Storms]

I hate to say it but better this hits near the TX/LA border than just about anywhere within 100 miles east or west of that border.

If you hate to say it then you shouldn't! That's right over my house!!

I'm sorry, I was just trying to place it at a landfall with the least amount of population. But I understand where you are coming from, been there and done it twice with Ivan and Dennis.

[gboudx]

I hold from Matagorda Bay to Vermillion Bay...narrowing toward the TX/LA state line. That is the best right now at days out. Landfall late Saturday afternoon or early evening. I echo again that well developed Gulf storms moving greater than 8mph tend to track right of NHC and guidance. So if NHC puts this into Matagorda Bay at 400pm Monday...look out upper TX/SW LA coast.

jeff, I get your updates and if you remember, I sent you an email about my folks in SELA using your updates as guides for their own preparations. Right now, they have a hotel booked up here in Rockwall, but they don't want to pull the trigger on that if they don't have to. I won't ask you to tell me if they should or should not leave based on what you stated in the quoted text. But what do you think the affects would be in NOLA with that landfall position?

Likely similar to Rita...We should know much better Tuesday. Will not give the all clear for SE LA as that would be not the correct action...but I feel the threat is more west of that area.

My folks down in the Lafitte/Barataria area had tidal surge flooding from Rita. They are outside the hurricane protection levee system and the water just came up Barataria Bay. I look forward to your updates this week. Thanks.