ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Diva]

jeff or wxman57......

Can either of you answer this question for me?

Do you have an educated guess as to what direction Ike will travel once he's made landfall? I realize it's way off but it will have a huge bearing on where I will make evac plans to if/when the need arises.

[smw1981]

I just found another great example of a hurricane that did what it wanted...Hurricane Dennis in '05. Less than 24 hours before he was scheduled to make landfall, his landfall prediction point was directly over my house (as a Cat 4) in Mobile, AL...super scary. Here is a part of the 6am advisory on July 10th...

"Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to
10 inches from the central Florida Panhandle into southern Alabama
and eastern Mississippi. Isolated maximum rainfall amounts to near
15 inches are possible near where Dennis makes landfall on the Gulf
Coast."

Dennis ended up making landfall around 2:30 in Santa Rosa, FL with winds of 120mph. It literally did not rain a drop in Mobile..literally (and surely not in Mississippi either). But remember, at 6am that same day, it was supposed to be a direct hit on Mobile, Al.

The point is, really no need to freak out this early in the game because it will change. It always does!

Jeff, I understand why you have to make the call that early in the "game" because I used to be the one that made the call for evacuating residential facilities for people with mental retardation. But, from that experience, I learned that making the call either too early or too much resulted in people not taking my advice. It is going to be the same way with the general public..they just evacuated for Gus and didn't get a drop of rain...

[jeff]

jeff or wxman57......

Can either of you answer this question for me?

Do you have an educated guess as to what direction Ike will travel once he's made landfall? I realize it's way off but it will have a huge bearing on where I will make evac plans to if/when the need arises.

Based on the globals consensus IKE will be rounding the SW and W side of the ridge and moving toward the NW and then N in a recurve pattern. Would not rule out a WNW track just yet in case the ridge holds in longer...best bet now would be either NW or N. Your best bet would likely be W toward C TX...but lets make sure the recurve idea holds and it does not plow WNW...plenty of time.

[Sabanic]

Okay I had to post and ask this question. I am by no means questioning the pros here, but rather just simply wanting to know.

If anyone who had not spent much time on this board, or was new to TC's came here this evening they would leave feeling almost assured that Ike would be making landfall somewhere between Central LA to somwhere in TX, and if they lived elsewhere they would more than likely breathe a sigh of relief and forget about Ike. My only reason for asking this is that although things presently are set up in such a way that this looks like the likely scenario there have been so many times when a TC's destination has changed, and sometimes in a big way. Being 5-7 days from a possible landfall on the Western GC is a long time. Even I know that weather patterns change, and what looks a certain way can end up being slightly different just a day or two down the road. That's the only problem I have with making things look so certain. Now when we are within 2-3 days I understand things are much clearer, but for now with Ike that is not the case.

Shouldn't the window be left open for changes so all are keeping an eye on a storm that looks like it may be very dangerous?


Thanks to the Pros that are here. I also really do appreciate all you do.

[LaBreeze]

I hate to say it but better this hits near the TX/LA border than just about anywhere within 100 miles east or west of that border.

If you hate to say it then you shouldn't! That's right over my house!!

I'm sorry, I was just trying to place it at a landfall with the least amount of population. But I understand where you are coming from, been there and done it twice with Ivan and Dennis.

I know that some like to think that there are better places for landfall, but let's remember that there are still people living in these areas and have taken a beating the last few years - personally having lost my roof in Lili and my entire house in Rita. I certainly don't appreciate anyone thinking that any one place is better for landfall than somewhere else. A hit at Vermilion Bay puts Ike right at my door and at the border of TX/LA I'm on the dirty side of this. Let's have a bit of consideration for those of us who do not live in the large urban areas. It's hard on anyone who has to go through it - populated area or not. Sorry, just had to vent.

[Wx_Warrior]

No need for despair, but if us fellow Texans have anything on our side, history tells us that with 50 storms that have closely developed like Ike, only 1 struck Texas (1852, Brownsville).

Hey hey, ho ho...Let the curse continue!!!!!

[jeff]

Okay I had to post and ask this question. I am by no means questioning the pros here, but rather just simply wanting to know.

If anyone who had not spent much time on this board, or was new to TC's came here this evening they would leave feeling almost assured that Ike would be making landfall somewhere between Central LA to somwhere in TX, and if they lived elsewhere they would more than likely breathe a sigh of relief and forget about Ike. My only reason for asking this is that although things presently are set up in such a way that this looks like the likely scenario there have been so many times when a TC's destination has changed, and sometimes in a big way. Being 5-7 days from a possible landfall on the Western GC is a long time. Even I know that weather patterns change, and what looks a certain way can end up being slightly different just a day or two down the road. That's the only problem I have with making things look so certain. Now when we are within 2-3 days I understand things are much clearer, but for now with Ike that is not the case.

Shouldn't the window be left open for changes so all are keeping an eye on a storm that looks like it may be very dangerous?


Thanks to the Pros that are here. I also really do appreciate all you do.

Ridge intensity to the N of Ike just does not allow much other potential for any other track. Once in the C Gulf it could begin to start to turn more poleward...but it would still be into SE LA or MS...they are not in the clear...but the threat is highest to the W of the MS River.

[Sabanic]

Okay I had to post and ask this question. I am by no means questioning the pros here, but rather just simply wanting to know.

If anyone who had not spent much time on this board, or was new to TC's came here this evening they would leave feeling almost assured that Ike would be making landfall somewhere between Central LA to somwhere in TX, and if they lived elsewhere they would more than likely breathe a sigh of relief and forget about Ike. My only reason for asking this is that although things presently are set up in such a way that this looks like the likely scenario there have been so many times when a TC's destination has changed, and sometimes in a big way. Being 5-7 days from a possible landfall on the Western GC is a long time. Even I know that weather patterns change, and what looks a certain way can end up being slightly different just a day or two down the road. That's the only problem I have with making things look so certain. Now when we are within 2-3 days I understand things are much clearer, but for now with Ike that is not the case.

Shouldn't the window be left open for changes so all are keeping an eye on a storm that looks like it may be very dangerous?


Thanks to the Pros that are here. I also really do appreciate all you do.

Ridge intensity to the N of Ike just does not allow much other potential for any other track. Once in the C Gulf it could begin to start to turn more poleward...but it would still be into SE LA or MS...they are not in the clear...but the threat is highest to the W of the MS River.

Thaks jeff. Just please leave that open so everyone will keep an eye on Ike. Like you said even possibly MS, or SE/LA. That would be bad for folks to the east of them such as this area. Also if Ike is a large storm like has been hinted at this evening a landfall in SE/LA with a N to NNE movement would affect alot of folks not only in LA. I know you know all this, but that was the only point I was trying to get across.

[Diva]

jeff or wxman57......

Can either of you answer this question for me?

Do you have an educated guess as to what direction Ike will travel once he's made landfall? I realize it's way off but it will have a huge bearing on where I will make evac plans to if/when the need arises.

Based on the globals consensus IKE will be rounding the SW and W side of the ridge and moving toward the NW and then N in a recurve pattern. Would not rule out a WNW track just yet in case the ridge holds in longer...best bet now would be either NW or N. Your best bet would likely be W toward C TX...but lets make sure the recurve idea holds and it does not plow WNW...plenty of time.

Thanks so much! I will be watching and preparing just in case.

[Storm Contractor]

Problem is when you have large coastal populations like in Hou/Gal you have to make the call early so you can get everyone out in time. Now with contra-flow the trigger is even sooner so the state can get the exchange points ready and sweep the "inbound lanes" Takes 40 hours to clear GLS county...Trigger is usually H-48 to H-42, but the not public call is made much sooner H-72...so all the resources can be placed in the proper locations

That is WHY there has to be 5 day forecasts and that is why I am glad I do not have the responsibility of doing what is nearly impossible! I remember 60 hours ago thinking if Max Mayfield, the King of ambiguity, was making comments like "we are likely facing effects of a major hurricane hitting our area" I thought "WOW, this is the It Could Happen Tommorrow Storm". Here we are again with another MAJOR metro area that needs 60 hours to prepare and the Met's have the task of telling the EOC officials what they KNOW AS OF THIS MINUTE"! The Pro Met's have to tell the people they are responsible to what the data says mixed with what knowledge tells them BUT they have to rely heavily on the data that is there NOW! If they form an opinon based on feeling or hunch they are opening up HUGE liability implications, but if they form an opinion based on the data they have, and that data changes, that is an accepted development. It can and probably will change some! Last week I saw the HPC 7 day with Ike over Panama City Beach, Today I see a 7 day with Ike over Texas! They do they best they can with what they have to work with! Man I am glad I do not have your job! Thanks for all the info!

[Sabanic]

This says it all . . .

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008



LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A
TURN. SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

[HouTXmetro]

Based on the latest NHC forecast and the current models... I think I'm leaning towards Lake Charles Region landfall. I'm going to wait until the EURO gives me a few more runs before a final call. I'v seen these storms veer right too many times.

Unofficial Forecast

[deltadog03]

This says it all . . .

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008



LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A
TURN. SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

there is the weakness mention...

[PTPatrick]

I know Euro is generally a good model, But I dont trust it any more than any other model the past few weeks. I know it has been consistent for quite a few runs now...BUT it literally jumped from a recurve east of FL to a cuba hit a fews days back, in one run. Maybe that shows that it was actually on to something, but it also wanted to put Hanna into LA before a sudden jump to a SC landfall. I just dont really trust it much more than anything else at this point for that reason. It could easily jump to a New Orleans landfall given its history. Yes it has done better with Ike since Friday's runs, but most of the models where doing well with Ike at that point as far as I can tell. EURO is still a bit of a western outlier. And UKMET has been all over the place with IKE. Right now it is a far southern and western outlier...and it was a northern outlier a couple days ago showing Ike hitting north of FT Lauderdale when other models caught on to Cuba, then it jumped south of the models. At this point I disregard UKMET, and I take EURO with a grain of salt this far out. I was looking at the Verifications on Wunderground which admitedly doesnt show all the models, but by far it looked to me like GFDL was doing the best. That pretty much leaves the NHC's cone...Houston to Pensacola and like or not, none of can really do much better at this point.


EDIT: Forgot to point out that the latest EURO I have seen also has Ike almost touching the N coast of Yucatan and then jump north a bit when that weakness passes north. Perhaps that could be a key. GFDL and friends have it turn NNW for a bit when it leaves Cuba. Maybe the all sense the jump North for a while in the southern gulf and then the ridge builds in to turn it west. Obviously the take home message then is that if Ike isnt almost on the Yucatan a that time, then the more northern models would be the ones to follow.

[vaffie]

Yes, the key differences between the model tracks are that the UKMET and the EURO take the eye of Ike into the Caribbean. If it were to do that, it could happen as early as 1 or 2 pm tomorrow, and would hug the coast until reaching the Gulf of Mexico. It would retain much of its strength, become much bigger as a result of the land interaction and be more likely to track into Texas as opposed to Louisiana. Tomorrow morning we will have a very good idea if it is going to reach the Caribbean. Regardless, this is the most devastating scenario for Texas (and coastal Louisiana)--for it will be big ... and potentially very intense by the time it reaches the Gulf Coast.

[terrapintransit]

Models shifting east again.....

[HouTXmetro]

Besides the GFDL the models actually are more West. HWRF/Nogaps was towards Miss/Nola earlier not they are Central/SW Louisiana.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

00z kickin

[Stormcenter]

Yes, the key differences between the model tracks are that the UKMET and the EURO take the eye of Ike into the Caribbean. If it were to do that, it could happen as early as 1 or 2 pm tomorrow, and would hug the coast until reaching the Gulf of Mexico. It would retain much of its strength, become much bigger as a result of the land interaction and be more likely to track into Texas as opposed to Louisiana. Tomorrow morning we will have a very good idea if it is going to reach the Caribbean. Regardless, this is the most devastating scenario for Texas (and coastal Louisiana)--for it will be big ... and potentially very intense by the time it reaches the Gulf Coast.

Unlike with Gustav the NHC is not committing to how strong Ike will be when it makes final landfall so it may or may not be as intense as initially thought. I would hedge and say he will not be.

Once Ike moves into the Gulf of Mexico...the
combination of warm waters and fairly weak vertical shear should
result in strengthening....however there is great uncertainty as to
how much the hurricane will intensify in 3 to 5 days.

[ROCK]

Yes, the key differences between the model tracks are that the UKMET and the EURO take the eye of Ike into the Caribbean. If it were to do that, it could happen as early as 1 or 2 pm tomorrow, and would hug the coast until reaching the Gulf of Mexico. It would retain much of its strength, become much bigger as a result of the land interaction and be more likely to track into Texas as opposed to Louisiana. Tomorrow morning we will have a very good idea if it is going to reach the Caribbean. Regardless, this is the most devastating scenario for Texas (and coastal Louisiana)--for it will be big ... and potentially very intense by the time it reaches the Gulf Coast.

Unlike with Gustav the NHC is not committing to how strong Ike will be when it makes final landfall so it may or may not be as intense as initially thought. I would hedge and say he will not be.

Once Ike moves into the Gulf of Mexico...the
combination of warm waters and fairly weak vertical shear should
result in strengthening....however there is great uncertainty as to
how much the hurricane will intensify in 3 to 5 days.

I agree....at most a 3 and I mean a low end 3, IMO.....and that is if Cuba doesnt shred him up beyond repair. Then you got dry air to think about....